Personally, I think this coming off-season is a big one for Pritchard (assuming, of course, that he's not actually being fired). He's built a team with a lot of talent, but I think Aldridge's stagnation, and Fernandez's collapse, changes the upside expectations of this roster a bit. When the hope was that Roy, Aldridge and Oden would all be All-Star-caliber talents, and Batum, Fernandez and Bayless were talented wildcards, this roster looked quite golden. What I think we currently can say: Roy is in fact a perennial All-Star talent. Oden showed that he likely is one, too, if he can stay healthy. Batum has gone from wildcard to talented complementary player (with further upside). Bayless remains, IMO, a talented wildcard...his production this season jumped from last season and he's stepped up in the playoffs. However, Aldridge doesn't look likely to become an All-Star talent. He's stagnated two seasons running, and it appears his prime is likely to be just a cut below All-Star level. Fernandez is starting to resemble an older Martell Webster minus the defense: inconsistent shot and without the ability to create plays. It's possible that that, with full health and some more development from Oden, Batum and Bayless, this core will win a title. But it looks a lot dicier with Aldridge settling in as a complementary player rather than as a star. Therefore, I think Pritchard probably needs to make a Big Move to get Portland out of "title contender if absolutely everything breaks right" status. He has a few tools...he can deal JPEC, Bayless and Aldridge for that boost. Batum is a possible chip, if the return is really big (because, at that point, Portland would be a three-man team long-term...so it better be a great third player). Chris Bosh is an obvious target. I'd target Amare Stoudemire, too, if I were Pritchard. I've always like Devin Harris. Any one of these guys is extremely unlikely, so I'm not going to argue exact scenarios for acquiring each...but I'm hoping that exploring all the options for these guys (and other impact players I haven't mentioned) will yield something that works. Basically, I don't think Portland should sit still with this roster. I still like the upside of Oden, Batum and Bayless, but I wouldn't count purely on internal improvement. I think the team needs to make one aggressive move to improve the front end of the rotation at the expense of depth. A four-man core of Roy/Oden/Perennial 20-22 PER Player/Batum is definitely championship worthy. Even a core of Roy/Oden/Perennial 20-22 PER Player is probably sufficient, if they can just fill out the roster with guys who can do anything (shoot from range OR defend OR rebound, etc). As a fan of Pritchard, I think this his remaining major task. I think he's done an amazing job to get the roster to within one big move of a serious multiple title contender. But now it's absolutely time for that one big move.
Bullshit. He shot 38% from three for us this season and 44% for the Clippers so he was trending up. Also, Outlaw shot 39% from three for us. We are missing both players. If they played in Rudy's place, we'd be the team with the 3-2 lead.
Blaming Alrdridge, the one player who has shown the ability to stay on the court, seems like a reach to me. Great! Oden is an "All-Star" player who can't stay in the game due to either (A) foul trouble, or (B) injury. If your idea is to build the team around Oden, a guy who has showed almost no interest in playing, and who disappeared in his one healthy playoff series, well, I strongly disagree. I realize that people do need a scapegoat, though, so I guess Aldridge is the scapegoat.
Agree on Oden, disagree on LMA. LMA is not a guy who can carry a team. He is a very nice complimentary player, which puts him in the same category as Miller, Camby, and (hopefully) Batum. Saying that isn't some huge insult, and it isn't making him a scapegoat. It is just being realistic.
I pretty much agree with all of this ... except I'm not super confident in either Roy or Oden's long-term viability due to their (apparent) fragility. It doesn't mean tear it down and get rid of everybody, it just means this team's title hopes seem to be hanging on a pretty tenuous thread -- and it probably can't be helped.
I actually thought about comparing Aldridge to Miller. I think they're pretty similar caliber, both are (were, in Miller's case) top-ten at their position, but not quite All-Star level, except perhaps in a career high year. I'm a pretty big fan of Miller, so I hardly view this as an insult, or "scape-goating." And before PapaG notes that Miller has never gotten out of the first round, neither has Aldridge.
I was thinking, get the whole Suns team. Then I thought, just trade Miller for Nash and all our mediocre shooters (Rudy, Webster, Aldridge) will suddenly become great shooters who never miss.
The return of Sergio and Zach would solve all of our problems and shortcomings instantly, giving us the dominating dynasty we were promised when we began throwing away talent on some stupid whim nearly a decade ago.
When Bob Whitsitt got rid of a player, he didn't just give him away, he got something for him (and without bribing the other owner $3M to take him). Since he left, almost all players we dumped were given away for nothing or, in the best few cases, at below value.
A PG I think would be ideal next to Roy is Tony Parker. A healthy Parker with a healthy Roy would be scary. The Spurs' window is closing, and closing fast. Could be something that isn't as impossible as some would say.
In effectiveness points per 48 minutes, Sergio was 19.3 last season, and Bayless is 19.7 this season. The tiny difference is because last season 1) Sergio was being pushed out, 2) he competed with Bayless for the same spot, and this season 3) Bayless has had sub PG to himself since Blake left, and 4) Roy and Rudy have missed a lot of games. So Sergio was run out of town on a rail for the same performance that is drawing rave reviews for Bayless. Sergio 2008-09, 19.3 eff per 48 http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketbal...-trail-blazers/team/playerstats/09/25/1-3-eff Bayless 2009-10, 19.7 eff per 48 http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketbal...-trail-blazers/team/playerstats/10/25/1-3-eff
Didn't the entire league render Harris ineffective this season? If there was an award that was the opposite of Most Improved, Harris would've won it in a landslide this year.
Blah Blah Blah. Bayless has upped his game in the playoffs and is our third leading scorer (and the 4th leading scorer isn't even close). Without him, we'd have been swept on Saturday. Sergio wouldn't have been able to put those points on the board for us.
I could get on board with that, but frankly I think Devin Harris might be a more realistic target if the Nets get Wall. Perhaps we could float Jerryd, Rudy and Joel's expiring as a starting point in negotiations (though they'd probably want somebody like Batum or Aldridge to make it more equitable)?
I hate to even say his name because I bash on him all the time, but what this team needs is a different coach. Nate is a good guy who served his purpose, but Portland needs a leader who has some fire in him. I think the team will follow his lead.
I agree and it's not even really his 'fire' that I'm concerned with -- though it would be nice to see him take up for his players a little bit more -- He's like a cook who can make a passable meal out of turnips and low quality mutton, but give him top end ingredients and ask him to make a dish that requires subtlety and careful mixing and he'll try to give you something that resembles the boiled turnip-mutton stew -- this team has to evolve from merely getting by on guts and bail-out offense from a couple of guys, and instead run a more integrated and complete offense (or you can forget about Batum or Oden realizing their potential at this end of the court). If he's not replaced I think you can expect more regular season success in the fifty + wins zone, but continue to see early exits in the playoffs unless Portland possesses a clear talent advantage over their opponent.
I'm kind of surprised you're so pessimistic about a team that just won 50 games with so many injuries. I really don't think they need to make one big move this off-season to be a contender next year. Aldridge is perfectly adequate as the third/fourth best player. Assuming we go back to a normal level of injuries for the team, if Oden stays healthy and cuts down on fouls, we contend. If he doesn't, we don't. I'm certainly not averse at all to swapping Aldridge for Bosh or Amare. I'd be all for it. But I don't think it has to happen for this team to contend.
I'm bullish on the current team's chances of being a borderline title contender, like the Sacramento Kings were in the early part of the decade. I'm somewhat more pessimistic about reaching the level where they are one of the primary title contenders. The second is what I want, because borderline contenders can fall just short over and over. Jerry Sloan knows that better than anyone (though I think they were primary contenders a couple of times). I think, healthy, they're on the level of Denver and Dallas and that tier of teams. I think they need one major move to get them to where the Lakers have been, or the Celtics were or the Cavs or Magic are.
