Where does Webster fit?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Natebishop3, Aug 11, 2009.

  1. mook

    mook The 2018-19 season was the best I've seen

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    PG: Miller / Blake / Bayless
    SG: Roy / Fernandez / Blake / Webster
    SF: Batum / Roy / Webster / Cunningham
    PF: Aldridge / Outlaw / Oden / Pendergraph
    C: Oden / Przybilla

    This is how I see it shaking out. Rudy Fernandez is a much better player than Webster. Roy plays SF almost as well as he does SG. So I'd rather see Rudy at SG and Roy at SF before I see Webster in the game.

    If you need somebody to stand around and launch threes off the bench, I'd rather see Blake out there at SG. Sorry, Martell, but Blake is a more reliable shooter and brings decent passing (as a backup shooting guard). Blake has a size disadvantage, but he's actually a pretty good defender against guys a little bigger than him. It's speed that kills Blake. Besides, a lot of backup NBA SG's are undersized anyway (otherwise they'd start).

    So I think Webster gets whatever table scraps that come with being the third string SF and fourth string SG.

    For that matter, I really don't see a lot of minutes for Outlaw or Webster this year. Outlaw gets the 15 minutes or so at backup 4, and that's about it.

    Andre Miller is now our third or fourth best player on the team. He's getting old, but he's coming off a season where he averaged 36 mpg, and he's an injury-free iron man. When you add somebody of that quality who is that capable of playing big minutes, other guys are going to lose minutes. (And it's not like there were really enough minutes for Webster last year if he had been healthy anyway.)

    We added a little playing time by dumping the worst players in our rotation (Frye and Rodriguez), but then Fernandez and Oden are almost certainly going to average more minutes this year to offset that. Oden will probably play a little more in the "twin tower" role at PF, edging out Outlaw. Roy will probably play a little more at SF to make space for Rudy, edging out Webster. Blake probably plays a little more at backup SG, also edging out Webster.
     
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2009
  2. BTOWN_HUSTLA

    BTOWN_HUSTLA NOW BUZZ KILLINGTON

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    I see Webster starting at SF.
     
  3. mook

    mook The 2018-19 season was the best I've seen

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    Why? What does he do that's better than Batum?

    I'd start Fernandez at SG and Roy at SF before I started Webster. Or I'd go with a two PG lineup of Miller, Blake, Roy, Aldridge, Oden.

    But I'd rather just start Batum. In his rookie year he was already better than anything Webster has shown us.
     
  4. BTOWN_HUSTLA

    BTOWN_HUSTLA NOW BUZZ KILLINGTON

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    Batum was great at times but other times he totally disappeared (I guess Webster was like that 2 years ago)..esp in the Playoffs.

    I'd like to see what a more level-headed and mature webster can bring. He's put on some muscle...dunno, Batum is great but I can envision him losing his starting spot.


    Just look at stats:

    Martell: 10.8ppg/3.9rpg/1.2apg 42.4% FG, 38.5%3PT
    Nic: 5.4ppg/2.8rpg/0.8apg 44.6%FG, 36.9% 3PT

    I think people are overrating Batum based on a few nice runs. I don't see how he's "clearly outplayed him" other than rating them based on their 19-year old rookie seasons or whatever.
     
  5. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    The stats are useless when you do not include minutes played and usage% - as shown by inspecting advanced statistics - Batum's offensive production was more efficient than Webster's in his rookie year - his PER was higher than any year during Webster's career. Another measure - offensive win score shows that a rookie batum, playing less than 75% of the time Webster played and being used less than Webster was (14% vs. 18%) contributed a higher win-score.

    Raw statistics are nice - but are pretty useless to really see their real contributions to the team. Webster, when used more and playing long minutes did not contribute as many wins (offensively) as Batum did in his rookie year.

    The stats are very clear - Batum is a better player.
     
  6. BTOWN_HUSTLA

    BTOWN_HUSTLA NOW BUZZ KILLINGTON

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    The stats are not very clear.

    You're using a limited sample (using Batum's reduced minutes), then comparing Martell's Rookie season vs. Batum and attempting to apply them to the present day. You are coming up with left field statistics like "offensive win score" that no one gives a fuck about.

    Last year Batum started because he was fill in. Travis Outlaw sucked because he just chucked the ball and screwed up the offense when he started. Batum played pretty conservatively, just kind of blending in with the offense.

    I'm not anti-Batum or anything, but I think its not a stretch to say that Martell will be starting next season.
     
  7. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    You are wrong. The stats I presented were from Batum's rookie year and Webster's 3rd and best year.

    I will repeat this info - During his rookie year, Batum, in a reduced role, contributed more wins than Webster did in his 3rd year.

    Again, check the advanced stats in this link - http://www.basketball-reference.com...m=0&p1=batumni01&y1=2009&p2=webstma02&y2=2008 and notice what years we are talking about.

    Now - if you choose not to give a fuck about statistics that adjust for pace, minutes played, usage and efficiency - that's your choice - but I can assure you there are people that notice these things as they provide a better view of worth than raw statistics that ignore all these things.
     
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2009
  8. BTOWN_HUSTLA

    BTOWN_HUSTLA NOW BUZZ KILLINGTON

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    "Batum's offensive production was more efficient than Webster's in his rookie year"

    the way you made it sound, you seem to refer to Webster's rookie year.
     
  9. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    Webster starts Opening Night. You don't lose your position due to injury or another guy showing up who's better than you (right, Nate?) It's another matter about whether he starts in HOU 3 days later.

    This team would be best if there was a 3-man rotation at guard (Miller, Roy, Rudy), Webs and Batum at the 3 (and spot 2), and a 3-man Oden/LMA/Legit PF-C. Since Oden's still questionable, I don't mind keeping Przy around in a pure C/Backup C rotation, but I don't think Joel's gonna like it.

    I would've liked Okafor. Chandler'd be ok, but I just don't like the guy. :shrug: Honestly, I still think the Przy/Bayless/(whoever MIN wants of Outlaw or Blake)/1st for Love/Cardinal/Rubio's rights makes some sense.

    Forgot to finish: I think Webster's going to be surprisingly good this year. I know stats don't predict that, but IF he gets Outlaw-esque minutes (either starting or off the bench) I think you'll be surprised.
     
  10. BTOWN_HUSTLA

    BTOWN_HUSTLA NOW BUZZ KILLINGTON

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    Glad they were on the same team with the same players.
     
  11. STOMP

    STOMP mere fan

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    I expect that they'll give a healthy Martell more opportunities as a backup SF to start the season. But unless his game has taken several steps forward, he will eventually fit in on the end of the bench. If what he's shown is what he's got more of, he's the 4th best option at SF (behind Batum, Roy & Outlaw), and those guys don't get much burn.

    STOMP
     
  12. hasoos

    hasoos Well-Known Member

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    Um Webster didn't get to play last year, and before he went out in pre season, he looked really good. So way to stretch the truth. The way you always do when you don't like a player. It would be much easiser if you said you didn't like them, because that is believable and acceptable. But there is no reason to really make stuff up.

    Secondly, how does he not fit? Any SF that plays well fits this lineup. Period.
     
  13. andalusian

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    I am sorry about it - but since I did give a link that compared them - I thought it would be clear for those that bothered to check it.
     
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2009
  14. andalusian

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    I hope you are right - but to be honest, during his 3rd year Webster did get 28.4 MPG - and Travis never got that many minutes per game (his highest was 27.7, last year).
     
  15. hasoos

    hasoos Well-Known Member

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    I also felt that Webster didn't get enough credit for his defense the last year he played. I felt he did a pretty good job on some really tough guys to guard.
     
  16. andalusian

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    Again, I find this argument strange. Because Batum was on a team with better offensive players - his usage% was lower. The same would have happened to Webster - when there are better offensive players on the roster - your minutes and touches would go down. Yet, in this lower minutes and usage - he produced more.

    Again - I am really not sure why there is such a bind faith in Webster's ability to perform when history has shown us that in 3 years, with more chance to prove himself, he never did as well as Batum did in his rookie year.

    Do I hope he proves me wrong - sure, he is a Blazer and him becoming a big start would be nothing but great - but I just find it questionable, at best.
     
  17. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    His defense, improved, no doubt about it - but again, in a lot more minutes, his defensive winscore was not higher than Batum's rookie defensive win-score.

    There is no doubt that Webster is an NBA player, and maybe even a rotation player. But so far, in his career, he has been a below average one - and Batum produced more on both sides of the court during his rookie year.
     
  18. BTOWN_HUSTLA

    BTOWN_HUSTLA NOW BUZZ KILLINGTON

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    Produced more? The stats would say otherwise. We had a big hole at the 3 last season. While Batum would have occasional streaks of great play, it was really up and down.

    Not saying Martell is guaranteed but he's a few years older, we can bring up Batum more slowly.
     
  19. STOMP

    STOMP mere fan

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    you're siting a meaningless preseason blowout of the woeful Kings who were missing their top 2 players as him looking really good??? way to stretch the truth indeed. I'd also point out that he had a good preseason the year before that... unfortunately when the real games started he came back to the mean that has characterized his looking up at mediocre career thus far

    STOMP
     
  20. andalusian

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    The stats do not say otherwise. The goal of the team is to win - and Batum produced more wins. It's pretty simple.
     

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