Which NBA Team Will Land Tom Thibodeau?

Discussion in 'Chicago Bulls' started by truebluefan, Jun 1, 2015.

  1. _GB

    _GB Bulls Fan Staff Member Moderator

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    That's even more damning.

    If Tom had just loosened up, even a little bit, and gotten his players some rest, they might actually have crossed the finished line. They were physically dead, rubber-legged really, when that second round hit. When you don't have an overwhelming talent on your roster like they do on the other bench (LeBron), you have to at least consider every advantage you can find.

    I hope he enjoys that 4.5 million. I suspect he'd rather still be coaching. In Chicago. Coaching Butler and Rose.
     
  2. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Kyrie Irving 36.4 minutes/ game.
    LeBron 36.1.
    Love 33.8.

    FINALS

    Butler 38.7
    Gasol 34.4
    Noah 30.6

    Yeah, our guys are overplayed. No NBA players can tolerate that much use without running out of gas.
     
  3. _GB

    _GB Bulls Fan Staff Member Moderator

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    Glad you agree.
     
  4. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Sarcasm on both our parts.
     
  5. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    Strange that the Cavs made it to the finals playing Kyrie and Lebron top 10 in the NBA minutes and that they SWEPT the minutes managed Hawks.

    No, that narrative, while its the one the org is pushing, simply doesn't play out. Bulls only had one guy in the top 20 in MPG this season and that guy had a great playoffs.

    http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/minutes/sort/avgMinutes/seasontype/2

    Thibs abided by the Jen Swanson minutes restrictions. Rose was still average and Noah was bad / gimpy. Well rested though.

    If Thibs was the issue, then expect great things out of the Bulls next season, yes? Championship expectations? My guess is that Freddy Del Hoiberg won't have those. But if Thibs was the problem and Fred is the answer, then there should be.

    Thibs might rather be coaching, but I doubt he'd rather be working for people like Gar Forman and John Paxson anymore. They have become a joke nationally for a reason and the last two head coaches left under dubious circumstances for a reason.

    Its only a treat to coach Derrick Rose if he's a superstar. Otherwise, if ring is the goal, find a new superstar (if possible).
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2015
  6. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    The big difference between Skiles and Thibs is the following, IMO.

    Thibs got the most out of any NBA player he was given for the most part, even the head cases. Sure, Gasol thrived under him, but so did Nate Robinson. It makes the front office's job really easy when you have a coach that gets the most out of nearly any assemblage of players he's given.

    Skiles seemingly couldn't / wouldn't work with about 30% of the players the NBA. That was one of the hallmarks of the PaxSkiles "right way" regime. If you don't toe the line, we have no use for you. See JR Smith.

    Thibs could work with any player. He just wanted a line between the front office duties and the coach duties , which seems reasonable. The front office at one time agreed, which is why they signed him to an extension, fully knowing the type of coach he is.
     
  7. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    I honestly thought you guys were bringing up the Cavs minutes stuff to instigate. Do you actually believe this stuff? Because the last time I checked, Kyrie Irving is injured; so is Kevin Love (albeit from what appears to be a non-minutes related altercation). Lebron's minutes are also deceiving -- he took a two+ week vacation in the middle of the season to get his legs underneath him when he felt he was wearing down. How many players have the luxury to do that? Minutes per game is not the stat that characterizes LJ's workload this season, it's total minutes played, where he ranks 30th.

    This entire conversation obfuscates the main point though: You can't look at one player or roster or season when trying to uncover broader correlations between injury and minutes. You have to look across seasons to collect data. That's what pisses me off so much about Thibodeau's statements about the '90s Bulls. Did Jordan remain relatively healthy despite a blistering minutes load? Great, I'm happy for him. But I don't think you can project anything with certainty from that one little data point. Anyone who is approaching things without an agenda can see that.

    I guess Jordan's minutes load shows that it's not impossible to play a ton of minutes over an entire career and remain relatively injury free. But when did putting players in situations where it's "not impossible" that they will succeed become acceptable? Shouldn't we demand coaching that puts players in the best position to be successful.
     
  8. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    Listen, I don't think its complete bunk, but I think its way overblown here.

    I'd like to see the actual research / white papers on this stuff.

    The GarPax Bulls are not all of a sudden leaders in "sports science." Jen Swanson was brought on to win a pissing match for the front office, not because there was some organizational enlightenment. Its the cleaner way to choke out Vinny Del Negro.

    When I look at the MPG leaders, the Bulls to not seem out of whack.

    http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/minutes/sort/avgMinutes/seasontype/2

    The two teams that were brought up time and time again during the regular season who really managed the minutes of their players were the Hawks and the Warriors. The Hawks especially, since the Warriors guys had lower minutes in part because they were blowing out teams so much they could afford to rest their starters.

    The Hawks had Korver go down to injury, had a gimpy Milsap and were SWEPT by the Cavs. Talent wins. Guys get hurt. Korver got hurt. Milsap got hurt. Kyrie got hurt. Rose got hurt this season too.

    The Bulls had minutes restrictions this season! Rose was still average in the playoffs and Noah looked close to done.

    I would like to see what the seminal research in this area is and give it a read. I've yet to track it down, could you throw me a bone a provide a link or two. Minutes on the court increase chance of injury, just from being on the court, that makes sense. How does fatigue play into it and at what MPG level does it play a part. How to back to backs come into play (rest / recovery)? Some guys are just genetically able to play more than others I would imagine and not dramatically increase their injury risk. I'd like to see the actual research. What I tend to see right now is talking points. And teams like the Houston Rockets in the conference finals and the Cavs in the NBA Finals.

    With Freddy Del Hoiberg running his particular brand of offense, McDermott and Niko being unshackled and Jen Swanson being able to do things exactly they way she sees fit, the Bulls should be in store for an amazing championship run next season. Now that Thibs is gone, we can finally see what these guys can do.
     
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  9. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    So, I'm certainly not a medical researcher, but here's the first article I found.

    http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2297

    another take


    And you have this.....


    [​IMG]

    Lots of players tear their ACL during the 1st 10 minutes of a game.

    But, players tend to play 10 minutes or more in a game more than they play 30 minutes or more in a game.

    What that is taken into account....

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2015
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  10. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    While "sports science" is important, I do think the basics that Thibs preaches are totally vital. Discipline, good practice habits, working hard, overcoming adversity, not allowing excuses to cloud what you are trying to do, everyone pulling on the rope together, being smart from an Xs and Os perspective. And of course elite talent. This is how you win in the NBA, IMO.

    I'm sure wearable technology can capture some useful data if used correctly. I would imagine minutes restrictions may help some players stay healthy, it makes intuitive sense. But, intuition isn't always correct. And its not going to be enough to allow the Hawks to defeat Lebron James.

    I do think that in order to win a NBA championship you need elite talent and everyone on board with trying to win. That's what was so disheartening about the front office this season. They signed Thibs to an extension, meaning they wanted a guy like him to be coaching the team. The team by and large performed quite well under his charge. Then, this season, when the stars aligned the Bulls could have at least made it to the finals, Paxson decided to focus on smearing and undermining. While Thibs was laser focused on winning, Paxson was employing Jen Swanson to ask the players "does he really have your best interest at heart?" All the nasty leaks and local press stories. The territorial pissing matches.

    If they didn't want a guy like Thibs, they should not have signed him to an extension. While they were plotting and scheming for lowering the axe, which they eventually did, they were also undermining the Bulls chances to do something meaningful. A sad display and an indication about what John Paxson and Gar Forman are really about.
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2015
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  11. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Most of our starters sat out up to 20 games.

    That's where this smear tactic against Thibs falls down.

    It wasn't just Jordan. It was Kareem, LeBron, Magic, and all the big stars.

    World Championship Lakers in 81-82:

    upload_2015-6-5_9-6-48.png

    Kareem 35.2 MPG at age 34.

    84-85 Celtics, lost to the Lakers in the Finals:

    upload_2015-6-5_9-8-19.png

    Kyrie Irving is an interesting case study.

    upload_2015-6-5_9-10-11.png

    As his MP went up, his games played went up. The less minutes, the more injured.
     
  12. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    This year's Bulls:

    upload_2015-6-5_9-11-39.png

    The guys with < 34 minutes missed huge chunks of the schedule. One guy played 36+ minutes, which I consider starter's minutes.

    How about the season before?

    upload_2015-6-5_9-13-2.png

    Whoa, he played one guy 36+ minutes, Noah had an uncharacteristically healthy season, in terms of games played.

    Noah's career:
    upload_2015-6-5_9-16-38.png
    The arrow is Thibs' first season coaching him. He got healthier under Thibs, if anything, and only played 36+ minutes once.

    The season before:

    upload_2015-6-5_9-17-45.png

    He overplayed Kirk and Taj, right? They missed lots of games. Marco, too.

    That's sarcasm.

    The facts simply don't support the smear.

    But carry on.
     
  13. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    K4E's graphs are damning, too.

    The organization is embarrassed by firing a great coach. To deflect the heat, they're smearing him, even after the fact, and did all along.

    They got to hire their buddy, who's not necessarily a good coach.
     
  14. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    There's a lot of good points in your recent replies, K4E. My thoughts:

    1) I think part of the reason conversations on this board are so heated on this topic is that the analytics regarding player rest are proprietary. We see some studies like the one you posted, but I think the lion's share of injury-related analytics is going to concern accumulated minutes across a season, or in stretches, or in weeks, and not in a particular game, and those seem to be much more difficult to calculate. I recognize that saying that these analytics are important is a leap of faith, just like it is when you say that they're not of primary importance.

    2) You seem to be taking the position -- and I think it's as positive as you can spin this -- that Thibodeau's approach is draconian but it doesn't really matter since injuries happen and other components of coaching are way more important. I think that's fine, given the limited access we have to this stuff, but I do think it's important to recognize that Thibodeau's still wrong on this stuff; which leads to the third point:

    3) If you have a coach that wants to ignore injury-related analytics, he opens himself up to all kinds of ill will. I thought Nick Freidell's article that said the Bull's front office blames Thibodeau's minutes allocations last season for Noah's knee troubles this season was really interesting. That means that Gar Foreman, John Paxson and Jerry Reinsdorf believe that Thibodeau has robbed them of two of their allstars, and essentially ruined the team for an era. The problem with the way analytics work is that they only give you percentage chances and not direct causation. Just like you can't reject blaming the minutes loads entirely for an injury, you also can't reject that the minutes didn't play a role. This lack of ability to prove causation (or an absence of causation) created a clusterfuck of a situation that wasn't going to be resolved without a beheading, which is what we saw.
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2015
  15. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    What ruined the team of this era is management's unwillingness to recognize they need better players and to make trades to improve the team.

    For all we know, Noah's knee problems are a botch job by the medical staff that allowed Omer to play on a broken leg and the spinal tap for Lu. The track record in that regard is pretty clear.

    But yeah, it's Thibs' fault for playing the players > 0 minutes and having practices.

    That last sentence is sarcasm.
     
  16. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Did you think Boozer played the best basketball of his career with the Bulls? I didn't.

    Kyle Korver is in the NBA because he's an elite 3-point shooter...no other reason. He set the NBA record the year before he came to Thibodeau's Bulls making .536 of his 3-point attempts. With the Bulls, Korver made .415 and .435. He went to the Hawks and made .457, .472 and .492 in the last 3 seasons and even made the AS team this past season. Who got more out of Korver, Thibodeau or Budenholzer?

    Marco Belinelli is a shooter-scorer. That's why he's in the league. Prior to coming to Thibodeau's Bulls, Belinelli posted true shooting %s of .547, .543, .560 and .525. His points per 36 minutes in those seasons were 15.2, 15.1, 15.4 and 14.3. Under Thibodeau, Belinelli's TS% dropped to .513 and his points per 36 minutes dropped to 13.4. After leaving the Bulls, Belinelli's TS%s jumped back up to .605 and .553. His points per 36 minutes also increased to 16.3 and 14.7.

    Those are 3 very important players from whom Thibodeau clearly did not get the most out of.
     
  17. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Did PJax get the most out of Ron Harper? With the Clippers, he averaged 20.1 PPG. Next season with the Bulls, he averaged 6.9. That was without Jordan, and we needed the scorer.

    With Boozer, Korver, and Belinelli, the Bulls twice led the league in wins.

    In Boozer's first season, he averaged 17.5/9.6. His career averages are 16.2/9.5. His per 36 numbers were roughly the same as his Utah numbers.
     
  18. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Here's Taj Gibson's career minutes stats:

    upload_2015-6-5_10-34-0.png

    He's missed lots of games in spite of playing less then 30 MPG in any season.
     
  19. _GB

    _GB Bulls Fan Staff Member Moderator

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    I just rolled my eyes and scrolled down, down, down after reading that first line.

    In any case...a new era is upon us. Best to focus on that.
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2015
  20. _GB

    _GB Bulls Fan Staff Member Moderator

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    Outstanding point.
     

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