Who do we take if Granger and Green are gone by #9?

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting wtwalker77:</div><div class="quote_post">First the disclaimer: I don't know anything more than anyone else on this site. I've never seen Splitter in person, and I've only seen some grainy, low resolution clips of him playing in a game against who knows what kind of competition.

But what I do know is that this is a guy we've been hearing about for 2-3 years (I remember when nbadraft.net projected him as the #3 pick in the '03 draft...back in November of '02 this guy was already on their radar).

Now I'm not saying that this guy won't be a very good player and I'm not saying that his development has been slower than average, even by European standards. But it just seems like every year the luster has worn off him some. When I think of all the guys in the draft who are listed as guys with a lot of potential, Splitter's name doesn't make it onto those lists nearly as often as it did a year or two ago.

I dunno, I'd say I know a pretty fair amount about draft prospects for just being an average guy, but I don't know anything compared to what Mullin and the rest of the brain trust will know about these guys when they get 'em in for individual workouts and see them play in person. So it doesn't really matter what I think, whoever Mullin takes is going to be the guy he believes has the most potential.</div>
When it comes to Splitter/Vasquez,I tend to agree very much with this. I see reason to have doubts,but I just don't have the info and resources a team will have. I do trust what I see. I somewhat trust my experiance interpreting stats,but I'm wary about the vague sort of profiles that get put up on guys online,some not updated for a few years,some never even close to relevant.

Webster is getting top 10 rumors now. As a 15-20 pick he's interesting as a top 10,nope. Webster seems always listed as 6-6 235. That's a tad short at SF. At G can a guy 10 pounds heavier than Biedrens guard a 2 Guard? Webster is a great catch and shoot guy,is raw on D,just okay as a ballhandler. His game has to grow or he's a short Pat Garritty.
An issue with these imports is that several started the year on NBA draft.net's top 10 based on the idea they had been "on the radar" and this would be the big breakthrough year. Splitter and Vasquez improved a little,but not near as much as needed. Martynas floundered and Petro and some others hardly made a mark in Euroball. To me ,UPSIDE is about he has some real game and is improving fast. I recall seeing Olajuwon in college,every time I'd see him he was MUCH better than the last.If a guy has minor talent at the start of the year...and is no better at the end,then the learning curve is flat and "potential" is a tag not yet earned. I don't say Splitter/Vasquez don't have potential to get better,they can,but how much and how soon is relevant. We have Murphy,Foyle Biedrens and Zarko. Right now neither Splitter nor Vasquez seems as good as any of them,so bacically,they'd be 3rd string at PF,at best. As guys who are not real skilled or developing fast, a season of few minutes would mean not much progress.
If it happens we do pick one of those guys,I can only hope it works out. It's all in playing the percentages/probabilities.

 

I'm starting to jump onto the Andrew Bynum bandwagon. He's the best center prospect in the country and he's learning to dominate games. There are few players his size, coordination, and agility. I think after him it's Greg Oden for 2006 prospects with him having a good shot to go number 1 in terms of centers.

If there was ever a Kevin Garnett trend after 1995, which I think there was with regards to Jonathan Bender, Tyson Chandler, Tim Thomas, Lamar Odom as players with Kevin Garnett type qualities as part of the draft hype, I would like for us to work out Andray Blatche and see if he has the potential to be a "franchise player".

Tiago Splitter I don't think is coming this season and he didn't do anything spectacular in the Euroleague playoffs off the bench. I'm having doubts even though I've seen some flashes of solid all around skill and some smart play. I've only seen one or two of his games via sattelite/or NBATV. Not enough minutes to back up those highlight plays where he's swatting shots, finishing with either hand, boxing out his man and then grabbing the rebound for the putback dunk.

However we pick, I hope it's a guy who is unique to the squad, pretty much unique to the league, and is a guy that doesn't come out very often in the draft. Like when was the last time a Shaq or Tim Duncan came into the league? Andrew Bogut and Yao Ming so far was projected to be the closest thing. I got an idea of who I'd like to pick, but not even sure if he exists in this draft.

 

Don't you guys have enough guards and swingmen? I always thought the Warriors as lacking in size and rebounding.

 

Basically, what I want out of this draft more than anything is a player that can play alongside Biedrins for years to come, who is going to complement his game - especially defensively.

Scoring can come from anywhere on the court offensively, but I think a defense has to be built starting with the interior. And right now, Splitter seems like the most fundamental big man, defensively, in the draft. He's described as a very good defensive player, good on help out defense and rotations, who can block shots and steals and boxes out well. He has size, he has a good frame, good athleticism - though not a freak like Biedrins - and understands the game from playing at a very high level on the European stage...where team defense is stressed more, it seems. That sounds like a good complement to Biedrins.

Offensively, he's not comparable to Gasol, who came into the league averging 17 and 8 but his numbers haven't really gone up that much. He averaged 19 his second year, and dropped back to 17 the last two, and his rebounds have gone down every year. Frankly, I haven't seen a whole lot of improvement in Gasol's game since he came into the league.

Splitter should stay over in Europe next year and get extremely valuable minutes after the departure of Luis Scola, and be able to come into the league the following year and play solid minutes...just as Nenad Krstic did this year for New Jersey or as Scola may do next year with San Antonio.

As a player, he really doesn't sound like the typical European because his game is not reputed to be strong offensively...but I think some of that may be due to the style of Tau's play, and the fact that they already had established players in front of him, including Scola who was the Spanish league MVP last year.

And Splitter's averages weren't horrible this year, he got 17+ minutes, with 7 pts, 53% 2-pt field goal percentage - and thankfully no 3-pt percentage - with 4.5 rbs. Those are solid numbers for a young bench player in the Euroleague. And he's playing at a very high level of basketball. Tau Ceramica made it to the final of the Euroleague, upsetting CSKA to get there. Splitter had 6 pts, 2/4, 8 rebounds, 1 ast, 2 steals, 3 blocks (and 4 to's) combined in the two final four games. (Here's a write-up from Draft City http://www.draftcity.com/viewarticle.php?a=172)

The chances are, they could improve dramatically next year as he takes on a larger role...but barring injury or absolutely terrible play his draft stock should move up while the Warriors - hopefully - will be drafting out of the lottery next year.

It's a gamble, taking him, but I don't think he's a project. He's much more developed than Skita was - and surprise, surprise, part of that is due to the fact that he stayed over in Europe - or that Andriuskivicius and Alekansandrov are. He may also not have the long term potential that the other players do, at "full potential"...whatever scouts may place that at.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting N4S:</div><div class="quote_post">Don't you guys have enough guards and swingmen? I always thought the Warriors as lacking in size and rebounding.</div>

Which Guard/Swingman are you referring to? I think most people are saying that we need a guy that plays with his back to the hoops and solid defense

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting CohanHater:</div><div class="quote_post">Which Guard/Swingman are you referring to? I think most people are saying that we need a guy that plays with his back to the hoops and solid defense</div>

Could have been various earlier references to Granger,Green,Webster. Sure, A quality 7-0 with an all-round game,able to score at will and shut down opponents IS what we need. Sometime,in about 10 years...maybe...we will get that guy. Short of moving up for Bogut,nobody is a sure upgrade. The HS kids,Bynum and Blatche MIGHT fill the need,in time. What I do like with them is they have yet to hit a level where their abilities are not first string,or for that matter,dominant. Can Blatche or Bynum hook up with a Euro team and very soon be a star? Maybe. Can Splitter,Vasquez,Petro-not yet,the season proves it. Blatche had an 18 rbd average....not too shabby unless you're playing against the school for the blind.

A big part of my no doubt annoying push for Diogu or Granger is that I am especially confident they add to the D. That they add other stuff is also great. My big fear is wasting a good slot on a wish that never comes true.
if the W's get a real quality talent,at any spot,he at least becomes a market-value guy we can deal later,in a package to get the "ideal" player. If we end up with the equivalent of Shika and White,we'd only get Najara back. We might use a rd 2 for a project big who'd be a risk,fine.

We may escape lotteryland for a year-or 10,who knows,so I'm not real keen on a trade down unless we can be pretty sure to still get the best pick. A dropdown to the 20-24 area can mean we just miss anyone I liked as a RD 1,and the best of the rest,we might have had with a rd 2. If next years team is pretty good,wins about 55%,we might have few good options. A trade-down of 3-5 slots could work,a trade down of 12-15 slots can mean no star potential from the draft for several years.

 

I think I'm pretty much up for the route of high risk/high potential. But if the risk is suicidal risk, then no thanks. Lots of players right now seem like suicidal risks because of lack of experience, lack of skills, or the type of body they are.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting REREM:</div><div class="quote_post">Could have been various earlier references to Granger,Green,Webster. Sure, A quality 7-0 with an all-round game,able to score at will and shut down opponents IS what we need. Sometime,in about 10 years...maybe...we will get that guy. Short of moving up for Bogut,nobody is a sure upgrade. The HS kids,Bynum and Blatche MIGHT fill the need,in time. What I do like with them is they have yet to hit a level where their abilities are not first string,or for that matter,dominant. Can Blatche or Bynum hook up with a Euro team and very soon be a star? Maybe. Can Splitter,Vasquez,Petro-not yet,the season proves it. Blatche had an 18 rbd average....not too shabby unless you're playing against the school for the blind.

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I can't agree with much in this paragraph, especially it being a positive that HS's like Bynum and Blatche "have yet to hit a level where their abilities are not first string,or for that matter,dominant."

The whole problem with drafting 18 and 19 year olds - no matter what country they're from - is that they've yet to play (re: prove themselves) against top competition, let alone the kind they will see in the NBA.

The highest level of basketball outside of the NBA is in the Euroleague, and Vazquez starts for his team and Splitter plays some significant minutes for his. And both players teams are in the Spanish league, which one of the best national leagues in the world. And in the Spanish league playoffs, the teams of Splitter and Vazquez are playing in a playoff series against each other. Unicaja (Vazque's team) just defeated Tau 95-92, still trailing the sereis 1-2. Here are the numbers for both players, just for game three:

Vazquez:
17 minutes
9 points (4/7 fg and 1/3 ft)
4 rebounds (2 OR)
1 assist
1 steal
1 TO
0 blocks
5 PFs (ejected)
4 Fouls received

Splitter:
35 minutes
14 points (4/7 fg and 6/10 ft)
3 rebounds (1 OR)
1 assist
2 steals
1 TO
4 blocks
4 PFs
7 Fouls received

Two potential lottery picks playing in the playoffs against each other less than a month before the draft. That's a little more than a workout in an empty gym with some individual workout drills or some one-on-one and two-on-two competition.

Splitter is only about a year and a half older than Blatche, and he's already played in Spanish league playoffs and the Euroleague final four and championship game...where Tau actually beat host CSKA in Moscow before losing to Maccabbi (whose point guard, Sarunas Jasikevicius, will likely play in the NBA next season).

I find that much more impressive than dominating high school competition.

And with ACB (Spanish league) MVP Luis Scola likely leaving the team to enter the NBA next year, Splitter will likely start or at the very least log significant minutes, for Tau next season.

 

I like Splitter and the talent coming from professional international sports, but you can't ignore some of the NBA's greatest have been American high schoolers making the direct jump from high school to the pros. Many failed to play up to their hype, but it brought us such young talent as Kevin Garnett, Jermaine O'neil, Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant, Lebron James, Rashard Lewis, Amare Stoudamire. J.R. Smith, Dorrell Wright, Josh Smith, Dwight Howard and Sebastian Telfair could all be some huge impact players in the near future if they aren't already now.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting custodianrules2:</div><div class="quote_post">I like Splitter and the talent coming from professional international sports, but you can't ignore some of the NBA's greatest have been American high schoolers making the direct jump from high school to the pros. Many failed to play up to their hype, but it brought us such young talent as Kevin Garnett, Jermaine O'neil, Tracy McGrady, Kobe Bryant, Lebron James, Rashard Lewis, Amare Stoudamire. J.R. Smith, Dorrell Wright, Josh Smith, Dwight Howard and Sebastian Telfair could all be some huge impact players in the near future if they aren't already now.</div>

No one's doubting that there are significant examples of high school players working out well in the pros. But the paths of those players listed have varied significantly. That's the whole point I was making with young players, no matter where they're from, they've played against such limited competition that it's very hard to know how their development and adaptation to the NBA level is going to take.

Players like Garnett, Howard, Stoudemire, James all averaged heavy minutes their first year in the league, and in each it's worked out. But none of those teams were that good entering those years.

The Warriors don't have the luxury of playing a rookie minutes like that - partly because of already having Biedrins on the team, as well as the pressure and expectations of challenging for the playoffs - and neither Blatche nor Bynum appear to be as highly regarded as any of those others when they were rookies.

Blatche or Bynum may have to go more along the development process of a Jermaine O'neal...who started very few games his first four years, and never played more than 13 mpg in those four years.

The W's already have their "project", if you want to call Biedrins that, so I don't see any room for on-court development for a high schooler, no matter how good they are...and though I haven't seen either Bynum or Blatche play, I haven't read anything that states they are better prospects than he was entering the draft or why they'd deserve minutes over him. So in all likelihood, they'd be stuck behind him on the bench. That's not a good way to develop a player.

Some players can spend a couple years on the bench and take that the right way and so when their time comes they're ready. But in the meantime they take up what really is a non-contributing roster spot, and have to be paid by the team to do so.

I find it much more preferable to have a prospect actually playing basketball, especially if that can be at a level of the Spanish league and Euroleague, which Splitter currently does.

That's part of the reason why I lean towards drafting him. Plus, his game sounds like the kind of game that could be very valuable to the team...and it shouldn't take years for him to develop, because he's already begun that process of development on the professional level.

I've got nothing against Bynum or Blatche, given that I know so little about them. I've read about both of them, but other than them being the top high school big men coming out this year I don't really see why their worth a high first round pick. They might be more likely to be the next David Harrison - a McDonald's all americna taken with the final pick in last year's first round after three years in college - as the next Garnett.

Nbadraft.net compares Blatche to Steven Hunter, and Draftcity says best case scenario is Chris Bosh, the worst case Clifford Robinson (right now). Without having seen much of him play, especially against top competition, how can anyone know, even the scouts who've seen him in person on several occasions which is the more likely scenario?

Draftcity says Bynum's best case scenario is Shaq...of course, Eddy Curry also drew those comparisons and four years later he's still got a long way to living up to that hype...as does Tyson Chandler living up to the Rasheed Wallace comparisons. The problem with Bynum is this...he's 7'0, 280-300 pounds...so against high schoolers he is like Shaq. In high school, or against competion on that level, it's too easy for players to get by just on physical ability. Therefore, it's often impossible to really know how to gauge a player. That's why so many comparisons of high schoolers can look very foolish several years later.

And who's to say how the development of either player will be stunted by going straight to the NBA as opposed to playing in college...where they would likely be "first string" and "dominant"...and playing...as opposed to the NBA where it's doubtful they'd see much playing time in the first couple years of their career.

And again, the Warriors already have committed themselves to Biedrins, who didn't get many minutes until late in the season last year...as well as opening up the bank for contracts to Murphy, JRich, Foyle, Fischer and Davis...so they've got to try and win now.

At least with a player like Petro or Andriuskivicius they would be playing some basketball, in Europe, and the Warriors wouldn't be losing a roster spot, having to pay them, and having the time on their relaitvely cheap rookie contracts running out while they still haven't found out what type of player they are.

This may be the last Warriors lottery in a while...and there's a whole range of areas which they can go with it.

With Splitter, they probably only have to wait a year before bringing him over, and by that time he should be well ready to play good minutes in the NBA even though he'll still only be 21 by the start of the 2006 season, paired with a 20 year old Biedrins who by that time will be entering his third NBA season.

That's doesn't sound too bad for a young interior foundation of a basketball team, with Biedrins at the 5, Splitter at the 4. Who knows who the Warriors might have playing the three at that time...Dunleavy, Pietrus, Zarko, or somebody else.

There are other ways to go in this draft, and I'm certainly open to those as well. But looking at the draft right now, Splitter doesn't appear to be a bad option.

 

I would be a bit concerned about Bynum getting minutes to develop He's not real raw,but will need work. He is a guy with the size and a good sense of what to do inside and for a jumbo is really quite quick.
Blatche can hit the outside J well,run,handle the ball-plus that 18 rbd average says not soft. That he had an MVP performance in a top all star game is interesting,as it's a comparison to Amare and KG. A real interesting twist is that some had said Blatche plays like a F,had polished his ball handling,mid to long shooting but had not shown in HS a lot of inside,post up. He went to the Jordan Classic intent on showing that. He played more inside,postup than usual,rather than showcase the stuff he had really polished,a PF style. He had 24 pt,16 rbd---MVP.

Steven Hunter? Hunter can't put the ball on the floor well or rain some 3's. Hunter is a fair shotblocker,rebounder,being 7-0 with some hops but Blatche already has a bigger toolbox and some of those tools shine.

There is a saying that you can't compare apples to Oranges. Well,the draft is about comparing apples,oranges,bananas,Guavas and some East European fruit I've never seen before,plus the promise of a basket of stuff not yet ripe. Frye,Splitter,Blatche...all 6-11 middleweights,PF with some C potential,all are at least round 1,that is a consensus,all are pretty mobile and appear to have some overall skills,and yet they also have differences. That we don't get to see any 2 of them head to head,or even against the same kind of opponent really makes it tricky.
They also are not the lone options. Granger and Diogu,while 6-8,not 6-11 are high skill,versatile and well rounded. With them,the worst case scenario still is not bad. Both have major Basketball IQ and ability to play 2 positions in the NBA.

Blatche really has stoked my curiosity. We missed the boat on Garnett and Amare and here comes another big teen who may be a big star in the future...or not,and I can't access enough info to make the call. Splitter is even more difficult for me. He is not yet a regular or a star in Euro-ball. Blatche at least proved he's among the cream of the HS crop,while all I have on Spltter are second hand reports that he is on track to be a player.
Picking Splitter and dealing with a buyout-or letting him stay in Euro ball awhile are factors,but the main issue is what kind of player do we have once the dust settles,will Spliter be a notch ahead of Zarko or a notch below? I am frustrated about having far too little info to even make that call.

I remain most comfortable with Ike Diogu,as I did see him play and saw him do the things a top 10 player should. Scanning his stats backs up the eyeball input,the guy is a can-do player. I discount outdated "profiles" that appear to have missed his development. I don't feel an inch of height is a real big deal either. I saw the stuff to feel he can produce,and do so at either F role,though PF is where he'd play most.
If I felt that PF was a wide open role,Simien would rank a bit higher for me than he does. I don't see Simien playing some 3,but I think his rebound/inside scoring skill will make him a good 4 in the NBA. Granger's versatility,his wide range of skills,makes him a very attractive prospect. Some guys have one primetime skill,but in another area,are sub-par and so you get a guy who only gets used in some situations. Granger is above average in just about everything,so the transition into the pros can be especially smooth.

Green,like Granger,seems to have a very wide range of skills. Further,there are hints at superstar potential. There are questions,of course,as there always are about a player jumping from HS. For us,a big issue is what does it cost to trade up far enough,and what is the big picture,is Dunleavy going to stay? is Pietrus?

 

My point earlier was that Blatche had yet to hit a point where he was not a 20/10 guy. That the 2 lottery candidate Euros had 4 and 3 rbd games sort of underlines that. I also am not all that sure I'd call Euro Ball a higher level than US college ball. Especially the top tier US college programs. Coming up big at UNC,Kansas,Duke,U Conn,Arizona,etc is on the resume of a lot of top NBA players. International talent has been getting better,obviously,but the NBA already has skimmed off a lot of the prime talent. I look at the above game numbers and am puzzled at why the hell anyone sees Vasquez as lottery stuff. Splitter's line is at least decent....but I am not seeing a hint he is going to come up big in the NBA anytime soon-if ever.
Somebody in the Euro-league must be scoring 20 pt,grabbing 10 boards.so who are those guys and why don't we ever hear about them? I want to hear how Splitter,Vasquez,Petro had one game where they ruled the court. All I get is that they appear to be on track to start in Euro ball before long.
If we are going the route of getting a "big" and looking at "upside",Euros with numbers that sound second round worry me. Blatche's Jordan game,24 pt,16 boards,is a clue as to upside,and those boards do hint he plays big. Could he deliver big time against Duke? Kansas? That is the question that is impossible to be sure about I know KG,Amare,Kobe,racked up big hs numbers,big all-star numbers,and moved on to the big time. I do try to bear in mind that Pietrus and Biedrens were Euros who were not a finished product,who had the special quickness we see in their game,some of the skills,a state of mind,a set of work habits,etc. It seems each will continue to improve,though we can't say yet how much.

Again,it comes down to comparing apples and oranges and every other type fruit when we really lack a sure way to estimate the worth of apples alone. Makes for fun debates,however.

 

The problem I have with high school stats is that just about every top prospect can dominate on the high school level. Tyson Chandler averaged 26 and 13 and 7 blocks a game his senior year, Eddy Curry got 22, 9 and 3 blocks. Four years into their careers and there are still questions about them. Kwame Brown average 20, 13 and 6 blocks. Shavlik Randolph averaged 30 and 14, with 5 blocks a game his senior season...and he's been the definition of soft at Duke.

I haven't seen much of either high schooler, but the one thing I continue reading about Blatche is that he likes to stay on the perimeter and spends very little time in the post. That's from more than one source. Now, I've read the reviews for his play in events like the Roundball Classic and Jordan Classic and he played very well in both. But those are not the best venues for evaluating draft picks becuase they are mainly showcase games.

At 7'0, 230, if Blatche prefered playing on the perimeter in high school I think it's a fair guess that he could take a while adapting to the NBA. He doesn't sound like someone along the lines of a Stoudemire, James, or Howard, who were already physically prepared to play in the league when they were drafted. Few players 7'0 tall are.

And if he's not ready to play then he's going to find it very hard to get minutes, and not just in his rookie season. That means he's probably going to develop more along the lines of a Robert Swift, from the bench. One year into his NBA career and Swift barely got off the bench as Seattle went on their playoff run. And it's not clear whether next year will be all that different.

That's a significant investment for a player who has yet to play above the level of high school basketball.

 

The stuff I have seen on Blatche really seems to give a mixed picture. He is said to have fine perimeter skills,shoots well,runs,handles the ball-but he also was a big rebound guy,more boards than Kwame,Curry or Chandler. As for S Randolph,I can't imagine where he played HS ball that he had big numbers,did his league even play indoors?
That Blatche chose to focus on an in the paint,Center role in the Jordan game impressed me,that he did so well was also very interesting.
In HS developing his overall skills so he had options at the next level may have been why he was said to be a perimeter guy. Clearly he'd get inside too,as his rebound numbers were real high. His game would not have evolved much from posting up 6-4 opponents for a 3 ft finger roll. I sense he has skills and is motivated and that makes him worth a look. Blatche appears to be the top big HS guy in the draft,and yet not a high lottery. That says he has interesting but affordable potential.

As with any of the less exposed players,it will be up to the W's to get a look at info we can't access. I don't see anything that makes any import appear worth a top 20. HS stats can be fat,even for a Shavlik,so we'd need to look closer,enough to see the difference between a Shavlik and an Amare...ot the difference between a Biedrens and a Shika

 

Blatche may have developed his perimeter skills, but at 7'0 230 I question whether he has the body, or the mindset, to can play inside in at least the first several years of his career. If he can't, then he better have great overall potential to be drafting him several years ahead of schedule just to have him wait on the bench. (As I've mentioned before, one of the main benefits of drafting an int'l player - if he is a project, as Blatche sounds like - is that you don't have to pay them their first year or two after the draft, allowing a team to wait a couple years after taking them before the clock starts on their rookie contracts. Not saying the team has to, but I'd prefer leaving any big man not named Bogut in this year's draft - with Biedrins already on the roster - somewhere else to play for a year or two as most of them don't sound deserving of getting minutes over the players the Warriors already have...well, I should amend that to say they won't play over the guys who've got their contracts, and don't sound deserving to play ahead of Biedrins.)

One of the main reasons why I liked Biedrins last year was that according to every account of his game he wasn't a threat to abandon the paint and live behind the three point line the way many int'l prospects do. According to reports - as I saw almost no footage of him before the draft - he was a legit 7'0 with a tireless motor and intense defender, with a very limited offensive game but a strong finisher around the basket. Those are traits that translate very well to the NBA game. Blatche's game sounds like more of a gamble.

As far as this draft, scouting and what not, all that is very accurate. But Splitter is older and further along in his development than most big men coming from HS and int'l basketball. He shouldn't be put in the same boat as an Ilyasova or Andriuskivicius. He's much more proven than either of them. He's played at a very high level, and his game is more refined, especially on the defensive end of the court. It's not just speculation.

He's not an 18 year old player who's never played at the senior international level, who's only made his name in U-18 national junior tournaments and professional junior teams, or spent all his time buried on the bench. That may be true of someone like Yaroslav Korolev - who Chad Ford says may have a guarantee from #12-15 - but not Splitter. He's played at the highest level of international basketball - the Euroleage final four, which was televised in the US - as well as one of the top national leagues, the Spanish league. Yet, he's not the finished product as he still has room for improvement, especially on offense. Though he has good size he needs to get stronger and improve his finishing abilities in the paint, as well as develop more back-to-the-basket moves, etc. But those are realistic goals for a player to achieve. Much like Biedrins last year, his defense should allow him to at worst stay on the court in the NBA because of he can provide energy, hustle and defense. And he's described as having more court sense than Biedrins, who was admittedly raw coming into the draft.

Given another year with Tau in which Splitter will likely be a starter with Scola's departure and I'd expect he could come in play solid minutes right away as someone like Nenad Krstic, at 22 years old, did this year. (Krstic put up 10 and 5 in the regular season, 18 and 7 a game in the first round against Miami, with 56% shooting). I think that may be a better comparison for the impact Splitter could make...not in terms of stats, because Krstic is a better offensive player and Splitter is better defensively, but in terms of being able to come in and play in the NBA.

 

This international debate, while interesting, is kind of endless. In my opinion, guys who can play, can play. Of course the league they play in helps show you how they compete, but you really only be skeptical between if a player has true European league experience (like Splitter and Vasquez have) or players who have only stood out in their "Junior" league experience (Andriuskevicius, Alexandrov, Ilyasova).

Plenty of European players made it when they had adequate experience: of course old school guys like Sarunas Marciulionis (one of my favorite players, I always smile if I can get him in a thread) , Arvydas Sabonis, Vlade Divac, Peja Stojakovic, Toni Kukoc, Tony Parker, or lesser guys like Gordan Giricek all had extensive experience in the European league in their top competition, and were pretty much sure-fire bets to carry their games into the NBA without much change.

Younger players are a risk, and Rerem is right to be skeptical a bit, although I think perhaps too much. Only a few younger, less experienced guys made it from the international league, unlike how high school players in the states generally succeed. Dirk is the standout here. You might be able to put in Pietrus in here, as he played mostly on the junior/senior teams before a few season on his big league club, and Biedrins definitely fits in here. Most of the guys here, though, who played mostly on under-22 / junior competition / a few Olympics have not made it, i.e. Milicic, Tskitishvili , Tsakalidis, Moiso, Diaw, Welsch. That's a lot of guys who were stars in the Euro junior leagues. And a lot of bigger risks - which is why I have not been really high on Andriuskevicius at all (although I did make an exception for Aleksandrov due to his game).

So, it seems that European ball is a good gauge - as long as it's not a junior league. All of the guys who proved themselves there became good players here. On the other hand, most of the guys who were only drafted on potential there? Well, they're still on the bubble here. Pietrus and Biedrins would be the major exceptions, though - which tells me that the Warriors know how to pick em.

 

I give credit to players who have got far enough to,for example,star on an Olympic Team,as had most of the players mentioned. Dirk showed up for a major All Star game and played like....well,Dirk.
The Euro-league is basically AAA ball. There are as many future stars in the ACC. I am interested when a guy like Marko Tomas is young and averaging 20+,but I see Petro as kind of on a plane with Randall Morris,a guy who has established one thing-that he just had a mediocre season. That such a player can get much better is one of two possibilities. Morris is rightly on the edge of rond one,as he has size. Splitter and Vasquez are a notch better,but people talk like one of them can come in and grab a starters job before long. Meanwhile Wayne Simien gets dissed? Simien grabbed 11+ boards per-got around 20 pt per. Is he smaller,lighter,older than Vasquez....no. So how can Vasquez often get ranked higher? Simien is a LOT better,which is why he earned All-America and Vasquez is still trying to earn starts. Put Simien in the Euroleague where too many bigs play soft and he'd have Bill Russell rebound stats.

Both Biedrens and Zarko had reps as unusally willing to play tough in the paint-for Euros,and,both are on track to be good NBA players,though it remains to be seen how good they get. Some other speculation picks have turned out really bad,or are currently getting groomed to where they have some NBA game. Meanwhile, Amare steps in from HS and kicks butt. Early entry has skimmed some potential top stars from the college crop,but the best of the college players are still seriously good. The Euroleague has also had it's top talent skimmed off

I figure IF some import HAS huge upside which we,here,have zero evidence of,the W's scouts will see and rate it,and our debates here will be a moot point. As is,I don't see indications ANY import typically mentioned is much more than pick #20. The rate of progress was not there this season,all those guys who crowded the list at mock sites were expected to emerge,to show more then they have. 5-6-7 pt a game? That is not round one stuff really. Some are already getting re-inserted into next years mock,where,a few will still be overrated but some also will show enough.

 

I think you're placing way too much emphasis on stats here. I don't accept the premise that stats in high school, college, or internatinal competition, prove much of anything about a prospect.

Simien was a starter who averaged 34 minutes a game, so it's not a big surprise that he has significantly better numbers than Splitter, who averaged half the minutes - at 17 a game in 19 Euroleague games - coming off the bench. And as a bench player Splitter was playing behind the Spanish league MVP in Luis Scola, so it's not a shock that he was not as much of a focus on offense as someone like Simien at Kansas. So comparing Simien's 20 and 11 to Splitter's 7 and 4 is the definition of "apples to oranges". Splitter is also two years younger than Simien.

And let's not pretend that Simien's numbers are impossible to get in college, even for an int'l prospect. Andrew Bogut is an int'l prospect and he put up 12 and 10 with 2 assists and over 1 block a game his first year and that was considered a disappointment. The next year he gets 20 and 10 and is the college player of the year.

So, while you may consider Euroleague to be below college, I highly doubt Andrew Bogut could have gone over to Europe and recieved the minutes he got in college at his age, let alone become the player of the year.

The fact is, few int'l prospects come over to play in college...but that doesn't necessarily mean that they can't. And in recent years that's changed, at least slightly. Bogut is certainly one of the few top int'l recruits to play in college, but below that level there have been a few guys like Schesher, Kickert, Araujo, Songaila who were all at least solid players in college...and there's been others.

Since you like numbers, especially those of Simien....an int'l prospect who has gotten very little attention from scouts - Linas Kleiza - has put up numbers in his freshman and sophomore seasons that compare very favorably to the numbers Simien put up his first two years in college...in the same Big 12 conference (Kleiza at Missouri, Simien at Kansas). Simien had 8 and 5 his first year, 14 and 8 his second...Kleiza had 11 and 8, 16 and 7...and the two had similar year 2 numbers in blocks and steal #'s, and more Kleiza averaged one more assist.

Simien:
YR GMS MIN PTS REB AST TO A/T STL BLK PF FG% FT% 3P% PPS
2004-05 26 34.3 20.3 11.0 1.4 2.3 1/1.7 0.6 0.6 2.6 .552 .816 .286 1.53
2003-04 32 32.7 17.8 9.3 1.2 2.2 1/1.8 0.9 0.9 2.8 .532 .811 .182 1.51
2002-03 16 24.4 14.8 8.2 0.6 1.3 1/2.2 0.9 0.3 2.1 .646 .676 .000 1.61
2001-02 32 15.3 8.1 5.3 0.3 1.1 1/3.8 0.6 0.8 1.8 .553 .738 .000 1.45

Kleiza
YR GMS MIN PTS REB AST TO A/T STL BLK PF FG% FT% 3P% PPS
2004-05 33 31.5 16.1 7.6 1.6 2.7 1/1.7 0.6 0.3 2.8 .403 .732 .274 1.30
2003-04 16 23.1 11.1 8.4 0.8 1.7 1/2.1 0.4 0.3 3.2 .438 .621 .348 1.21

You can even compare those numbers to Sean May's:

YR GMS MIN PTS REB AST TO A/T STL BLK PF FG% FT% 3P% PPS
2004-05 37 26.8 17.5 10.7 1.7 2.5 1/1.5 1.2 1.0 2.4 .567 .758 .000 1.61
2003-04 29 28.9 15.2 9.8 1.4 2.4 1/1.7 1.4 1.3 2.6 .463 .689 .000 1.25
2002-03 11 28.0 11.4 8.1 1.0 1.9 1/1.9 1.5 1.8 2.2 .472 .575 .000 1.16

Yet, because Kleiza is undersized - 6'8, 245, not too dissimilar from Simien's 6'8 or 6'9, 255 and May's 6'9 260 - he's not considered a top prospect...not in Europe and not in the US.

He could be a solid role player in the league, but not much more. Probably turn out to be better than a player like Darius Songaila, but not a starter. That's the same thing I feel about Simien.

I'm much more interested in the way a prospect plays than the numbers he put up, especially when they're coming from vastly different leagues.

Splitter has a combination of size and athleticism that Simien and May don't. Furthermore, his primary focus is on defense. He's active, he hustles, and has a godd understanding of the game. He's primarily a defender who can play one-on-one defense, is a very good team defender, is good on rotations and helping on the weak side, and can block shots and get some steals. In that way his game sounds at least somewhat similar to a Kirilenko.

 

Wow, good discussion goldenstatefan and REREM.

 

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting goldenstatefan:</div><div class="quote_post">I think you're placing way too much emphasis on stats here.

Simien was a starter who averaged 34 minutes a game, so it's not a big surprise that he has significantly better numbers than Splitter, who averaged half the minutes - at 17 a game in 19 Euroleague games - coming off the bench. And as a bench player Splitter was playing behind the Spanish league MVP in Luis Scola, so it's not a shock that he was not as much of a focus on offense as someone like Simien at Kansas..</div>

If Splitter is playing behind the league MVP, why aren't we drafting the MVP instead of splitter? Yes, Splitter may not be the focus of the offense like Simien, but he is also not the focus of the defense either so putting up bigger numbers may be easier than if teams were trying to shut him down.

<div class="quote_poster">Quoting goldenstatefan:</div><div class="quote_post">
Splitter has a combination of size and athleticism that Simien and May don't. Furthermore, his primary focus is on defense. He's active, he hustles, and has a godd understanding of the game. He's primarily a defender who can play one-on-one defense, is a very good team defender, is good on rotations and helping on the weak side, and can block shots and get some steals. In that way his game sounds at least somewhat similar to a Kirilenko.</div>

First of all how can you say that about Simien. May;granted, but not Simien. I think he is plenty athetic. Second of all, how many games of Splitter's have you watched? Then how many of Simien's have you watched?