Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Natebishop3, May 25, 2023.
Good point. He’d be a great fit in Chicago, Sacramento and San Antonio as well
I think quite a few teams would like a young lead guard like Ant. An efficient volume 3pt shooter who has shown the ability to draw traps at 25 feet should have more value than simply a salary filler.
And his 3/75 is commensurate if not a bargain for his production.
What do you think said team would be willing to give up? Got a real world proposal?
yeah, while I don't believe Ant has negative value, he probably doesn't have a lot of positive value. Would depend on team needs
Ant will be 54th in salary next year, that's not bad or anything, but the relevant context is, among qualified players he was:
108th in PER (out of 190)
107th in RS% (out of 198)
67th in eFG% (out of 123)
182nd in FT rate (out of 243)
189th in rebound rate (out of 190)
70th in assist rate (out of 190)
164th in winshares/48 (out of 190)
140th in BPM (out of 190)
71st in 3ptFG% (out of 149)
he's in the top 15-20% of salary, but in the bottom half of qualified players in all those categories except assist rate & 3pt%. And 3 point shooting is his best attribute, yet he was only 53rd percentile this season. I guess you could mark that up a little because of volume, but really, by how much?
Simons fans can certainly dispute my observations...I'm sure some will, but this is what I see: he does nothing really at an elite level; He hasn't established the skill and court vision to be a PG, so he's locked into being an undersized SG; he simply doesn't have the size or versatility to switch between SG and SF like most wings. He's not a wing in fact, just SG. He's not 3&D, not close. His shooting is decent, better than average, but it's not anywhere close to elite.
and of course his defense is atrocious. He ranks 189 out of 190 qualified players in DBPM. Out of the 24 Blazers who played this season, Ant was tied for worst with Comanche...who played 1 game. We know this, and I'm sure the rest of the NBA knows it as well
and the rest of the league has probably seen what we've seen: Ant does not fit well with Dame; meaning he's probably be an awkward fit on most teams; because of Ant's lack of size and terrible defense he's best suited as a 6th man, But that loops back around to that salary.
sounds like I'm building a case that's he has negative value which I said at the beginning is not the case. He's 24 so still has upside room. But he does have pretty narrow value, IMO
I’d do Nurk and Ant for Ayton. Then draft Miller or Scoot.
good team and depending on how Miller and Sharpe improve potential for a very good team. Not sure Phoenix would do the deal but the one thing they lacked was depth and another scorer.
Ya I thought about that too but only with Miller. I don’t like drafting Scoot when you have Dame. Might be overpaying for Ayton a bit as far as Blazers fans are concerned. It also probably would take some time to develop and rumor has it that’s not what Dame wants to keep going through.
You absolutely don't always have to pay a premium. Thats a choice I was very much on the record for taking with Nurk but was repeatedly told by the know it alls that it had to be done. I was for offering him 11M per or so and taking the risk he walks and they have to go FA shopping (Hartenstein). They suck with him they'd suck without him, but at least they'd be getting their financial house in order.
Given where they were at roster wise, I wasn't for trading for Grant. But whats done is done and they shipped that Bucks 2025 unprotected 1st & three 2nds, & now I'm for resigning him. He's better & more durable then Nurk and should hold trade value if they decide to turn the roster over somewhere down the line
Nurk and Ant for A would be a great deal for Portland. Ayton is really young still and a beast. Dame would be a great influence for him. You better have a strong big guy if you want to win in the West.
We all wish Nurk would "buck up', and play like he cares all the time. I think the Blazers gave him that contract in good faith. For him shutting it down. But now it's time for him to return the value to the Blazers. I feel he has an obligation to do that much.
I'm not sure how your scenario of what you wanted, refutes what I said. I shouldn't have used an absolute in my statement, so I was wrong there.
Yes, they possibly could've signed Hartenstein and also sucked. I don't believe I said the Blazers have to resign every free agent they have. I, like you, felt Nurk was an overpay.
I know this is the sentiment surrounding Nurk.
Ayton has exactly the same issues
How about this?
we include the 23 and a second to Chi to open up future firsts. We offer two seconds to Tronto and a future 1st(maybe 2?) for Ayton.
Portland - Ayton/Anunoby
Toronto - Simons/Lee, 2 seconds from Por
Phoenix - Nurk/Porter JR/Little, 1 or 2 future firsts
May need to swap the picks provided to Toronto and Phoe, but if we could pull this off... or even include Watford to one of the teams to equal it out, we end up with the following:
#3 Pick(Miller or Scoot?)/Watford/Mayes/Eubanks/
Hmm.. A little loose, but I think this is somewhat realistic? Toronto will need a guard like Ant.
You ever get that boat on the water?
I know "realistic" is a pretty subjective term, but after all the hubub and fantasy, my feeling is the most realistic options I've seen are:
* Ant + (maybe) Little/Keon/Knox + (maybe) 23rd pick ---> Chicago for DDR & all Portland 1st's back (hopefully Portland keeps 23 and gets their firsts back; maybe add some 2nd's
* If Miller drops to #3 draft him and call it a draft? Or are Blazers targeting somebody else?
* if Scoot drops to 3 it might be a bit more complicated/nuanced....Is a Dame/Sharpe/DDR/Scoot rotation at guard, and sometimes SF good enough for win-now and future upside?
* if Blazers don't want Scoot, or more to the point, feel they can parlay the 3rd pick into something better, would they move down in the draft? 3 for 6+11? 3 for 4+20? 3 for Wagner + 11? 3 + Nurkic for WCJ + 11? And can the Blazers find great value at #4 or #6 in a 3 player draft? (I'm not a Thompson believer)
I just happen to think the cost of any of Bridges, Brown, Siakam will be too high
I really like that we keep pick #3. While yes Ayton is overpaid and unlikely to improve as much as it seems he has the potential too, I suppose there is still a chance at some upside with him. His $70 million he is owed on his contract in the following two seasons starts to look much much smaller when were talking about $250 million extensions for Jaylen Brown or a similar deal for Pascal Siakam.
I would hope we could squeeze more out of Houston or Detroit for the 3rd.
3 and Keon for 5 and Duren? Take Whitmore or a Thompson at 5.
Or maybe 3 and Keon for 4 and Eason? Take Amen at 4.
Still send out Simons to Orlando for hopefully a pick and a player?
Yeah DeRozen has always been someone I thought was very likely the Blazers would target this summer, Bulls are moving on from winning as well as Lonzo injury, it gives Dame a win now superfriend, he's been a multi time allstar the Blazers have never traded for since Pippen/Smith, but it won't have the cost of the other targets. I'd prefer to acquire him with Nurk's contract than Ant, although in your hypothetical its nice the Blazers eliminate that pick owed, and with Nurk the Blazers likely have to send out another first instead. Still I'm higher on Ant than you are and think this is selling low on him that could look like Jermain Oneal in a few years without giving us any single great piece in return.
Miller is now the betting favorite at #2 so I think Scoot being drafted by the Blazers is a legit possibility. I can't imagine the Blazers trot out DameAntScoot next season, somebody has to go.
I'd say Dame/Sharpe/Scoot would be the guard rotation. DDR isn't someone I'd ever consider a guard at this point of his career - he actually gets a number of minutes at PF. The problem with just switching Ant for DDR next year is then you pair Grant and DDR in the frontcourt with the rest of the roster returning with little changes just has no possibility of succeeding defensively. So it makes you wonder whats the point of having vets Dame/DDR/Nurk/Grant here if theres no realistic way to win.
I guess maybe the idea is to hope the #3 plus Sharpe improve so the real contention window is a couple of years later and then maybe Nurk/DDR/pick are shipped out for the final piece.
sure....I'm fine with upgrading my realism in Portland's favor. You may have gone a bit too far with Duren though. Eason? not really impressed and may rather have #20; asking for Sengun is probably asking too much.
and yeah, I agree that Simons needs a change, but I'd probably rather have DDR and all Portland's picks back
It really depends on if Scoot drops, and how much Houston or Detroit value Scoot. That's why it seems like we can't even really make a trade until we know who Charlotte picks. Some teams might really want Scoot, other teams might really want Miller.
I've watched a lot of drafts, and it always seems there's a player, between the lottery & draft, who drops a little, and another who drops a lot. The other side of that is there's a player who rises a little, and another who rises a lot. And there is some relative context in this: a player rising from around 20-22 to 10-12 isn't as big a rise as one who goes from 9 to 3-4
this is all ignorant speculation on my part obviously, and it starts with an assumption that the Blazers might target a prospect other than Scoot/Miller. The Thompson twins may have risen a little, but I question if that's because of their talent level or that of their classmates. Whitmore is the prospect that seem to be gathering the most momentum
Portland has leverage at 3, but it's tenuous leverage. If they are targeting Whitmore and considering trading down the first rule is 'you-call-us-we-don't-call-you'. If Portland initiates that kind of conversation they could immediately lose the leverage to demand that secondary asset. They have to wait for inquires and gauge how much the other team covets either Scoot or Miller. Houston would be a tough sell at 4 unless they really wanted one of those two players, a lot. Detroit at 5 and Orlando at 6 would be easier sells. But it would also be riskier because either Houston or Detroit might covet whoever Portland wants and steps in front of the Blazers and takes that player.
so it would have to be that Portland either takes Whitmore at 3 or is satisfied taking Scoot or Millare with a contingent trade is Whitmore is still there at 5 or 6
the funky thing for me at least, is we are leaving on the 19th for 9 days camping in NE Oregon. No cell service and definitely no internet. So I won't know what went on till well after it happens. We usually go out in June before the draft, but the timing was off this year. Shit!
Separate names with a comma.