Why Portland Trail Blazers Are Going Nowhere in the 2014 Playoffs

The article has analysis and video illustrations of some points it makes. Read it and ignore the sensationalist title, which is there to get attention.

 

There are just too many unknowns to really predict.

How will Dame respond to the playoffs (go beast mode or get overwhelmed)?
Will Robinson be the X-factor? He's improved coming off the bench with his energy.
Can LMA turn the knob to 11 and do even more?

 

After 82 games, Houston and Portland end with almost identical records. Not sure how that makes it that the Blazers have no business winning this series.

I would say Blazers are going to shock the world, but a 5 seed beating a 4 seed (especially when their records are so close) is really not going to be a shock to a whole lot of people.

If Aldrdige is healthy, Lillard plays like an all star and Batum doesn't forget to show up a few times, Houston has no business winning this series.

 

The Rockets won 3 games to our 1 during the regular season.

Average score for the 4 games:
Rockets 116
Blazers 109.5

We should definitely expect a high scoring playoff series!

 

By letting him shoot open 18-footers and trusting he won't wildly outperform his career average shooting percentage?

 

Disagree – it seems to me that our best chance is to use our best defensive players – Wes and Nico – and smother Harden. Let Dwight get his; he will anyway against our bigs. But if we could stop Harden, we have a puncher's chance.

 

One of those wins by the Rockets were based off of having an extra 6 seconds in regular time in favor to Houston. Harden and Howard are both statistical anomalies when it comes to how many free throws they shoot per field goals taken. Howard has a reason behind it (having a bad FT% at 55%), but Harden does not (87%). Seriously, you can look at all the other shooting guards in the NBA this season and see where they take their shots from (thanks to basketball-reference.com) and mathematically show (through regression) how Harden's FTA/FGA ratio is your textbook example of an outlier in the world of statistics. Durant doesn't look so great either by the way.

I see this series having a lot of fouls called against the Blazers. Hopefully Stotts expands his rotation to throw some bodies on these two to collect fouls and keep the starters out of foul trouble.

 

No one on our bench can guard harden. Would be thrill on him and his d is alright, but not good enough to stop harden. Harden is going to end up playing 44 minutes per game.

 

We don't need to stop Harden (because you can't stop a player from getting flop calls), just the other Rockets from scoring. We just need to have someone from the bench to absorb all the "foul" calls against Harden so our starters can play more.

 

Speaking of fouls.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/fouls/sort/avgFouls

Howard and Beverley are high on the PFPG list and collected several technical fouls.

 

I think Stevenson is right though. Lock down harden and let Dwight get his. Dwight won't be able to play the 40+ minutes per game that harden can.

 

This Houston Rockets team is a poor man's Shaq/Kobe Lakers. Maybe they're not so great in the regular season but they're so thoroughly built for the playoffs. The grind it up, drag it out physical style that would get you fouled out in the regular season is gonna be the Rockets' bread and butter. The minor favoritism towards "superstar" players becomes a way of life in the playoffs.

Luckily for us it's not like the refs just flip a switch when the playoffs start. It's a bit of a gradual change. As the playoffs progress the refs allow more physical play. It might not be so bad in the first round.

 

I still think the Blazers have shown another dimension. If we see this, there will be a lot of knowitalls scratching their heads.

One thing that is encouraging, as Jason Quick alluded to, LA seems prepared to be that MVP again. If he is ready to flip the switch that direction. I think it's very possible this team can push teams and series.

 

I have a hard time considering any team that utilizes flopping as much as the rockets do a "grind it out" "physical" or "hard" team.

 

This is going to be really simple to figure out in the first game. Win or lose doesn't matter as much as how the game goes. Does the team look totally lost and timid or does Lillard take the step I think he might and lead this team.

If they give Houston freebies on turnovers or LMA launching 20 footers all game we all might as well watch something else.

This is about a team imposing its will on the other team. Damian is the only player on Portland I have faith in.

 

Actually we went 4-0 against the Spurs but i agree with you i don't see us beating the Spurs in the playoffs.

 

To beat these guys you have to play decent defense, protect the ball and shoot really well. To do that in a 7 game series is a challenge. I think our recent momentum bodes well for our chances and we are an above average road team

 

People say Pop rested his starters a lot this season but the fact is, as talented as they are, they are still old as dirt. Ginobli looked terrible in the playoffs last season more often than not. The Spurs are a great team with a great system and coach but they are beatable

 

Houston in 5. I change my mind. I may change it too four. Sorry.