Why We Shouldn't Draft Redick at 11

Discussion in 'Orlando Magic' started by GatorsowntheNCAA, May 31, 2006.

  1. GatorsowntheNCAA

    GatorsowntheNCAA Omaha Bound 2010!

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting shapecity:</div><div class="quote_post">Offense and 3point shooters are not easy to get in free agency. Players who can score in the NBA go for a premium during free agency. Anyone has the potential to be a great defender in the NBA, because for the most part defense is just effort. The players in the NBA are talented enough to defend and make it hard for an offensive player to get to their spots on the court. It just comes down to effort and studying the scouting reports.

    It's ironic you mention Carney, because he's been lit up defensively in all of his workouts. Ronnie Brewer will be a solid defender, but can you count on him to carry the offense when his team needs points?

    If a perimeter wing is someone you think the Magic really need, then they should draft Bobby jones.</div>

    Basically whoever we draft is going to be either the 4th or 5th scoring option on our team, so we don't need firepower. Our top 3 options are by far Dwight, Jameer, Hedo. Those are already set in stone and Darko is a potential 4th option. So offense is definetely not something that we need. We don't need our SG to carry the offense when Jameer takes over the 4th quarter and Hedo/Dwight/Darko getting the rest. Do you think that our rookie would be our 2nd or 3rd scoring option? JJ would be the 4th or 5th option if we start him(and 5th or 6th if we start him on the bench), which is why I'm opposed to drafting him, because that's just not the role that would fit him the best.

    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting TheFreshPrince:</div><div class="quote_post">^^i agree, please name 3 free agents that are even close to as good a shooter as redick. Defensive players dont make a lot of money, offensive players do, why? because defense like shapecity said is almost all effort. Bowen, tashaun, big ben, hassell (sorry, had to mention him) arent even close to as physically gifted or make as much money as great scorers like michael redd or ray allen. Big ben will most likely get a big contract this year, but not as much as a great scorer from the post like Dirk</div>

    Basically we could draft Allan Ray who is close to as good of a 3 pt shooter as Redick and is quicker than Redick and is a better creater in the 2nd round to play the bench role that we will use Redick for and get a starter in the lottery like Ronnie Brewer.
     
  2. bbwSwish

    bbwSwish Harder. Better. Faster. Stronger.

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting GatorsowntheNCAA:</div><div class="quote_post">Basically whoever we draft is going to be either the 4th or 5th scoring option on our team, so we don't need firepower. Our top 3 options are by far Dwight, Jameer, Hedo. Those are already set in stone and Darko is a potential 4th option. So offense is definetely not something that we need. We don't need our SG to carry the offense when Jameer takes over the 4th quarter and Hedo/Dwight/Darko getting the rest. Do you think that our rookie would be our 2nd or 3rd scoring option? JJ would be the 4th or 5th option if we start him(and 5th or 6th if we start him on the bench), which is why I'm opposed to drafting him, because that's just not the role that would fit him the best.</div>

    I agree with Gators. He brings up a very good point. Jameer Nelson isn't a distributing point guard. He is a shoot first point guard who can distribute the ball when needed but he prefers to take the open shot or drive to the basket.

    Dwight Howard already gets fewer shots than he should considering he is our franchise player and since Jameer and Hedo are already taking shots away from him, is another pure scorer our main need right now? No. We need someone who can create shots for other players and someone who keep up with his man on defense. We also need someone who can come in and start rather than a bench player who can only shoot.
     
  3. TheFreshPrince

    TheFreshPrince JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting GatorsowntheNCAA:</div><div class="quote_post">
    Basically we could draft Allan Ray who is close to as good of a 3 pt shooter as Redick and is quicker than Redick and is a better creater in the 2nd round to play the bench role that we will use Redick for and get a starter in the lottery like Ronnie Brewer.</div>

    Allan Ray isnt even close to as good a shooter as Redick. He totally sucked int he tourney.
     
  4. GatorsowntheNCAA

    GatorsowntheNCAA Omaha Bound 2010!

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting TheFreshPrince:</div><div class="quote_post">Allan Ray isnt even close to as good a shooter as Redick. He totally sucked int he tourney.</div>

    I wonder how Redick would do with one eye......

    EDIT: Redick sure dominated the tournament en route to the National Championship. Oh yeah, 3-18 in the most important game of his senior year.
     
  5. bbwSwish

    bbwSwish Harder. Better. Faster. Stronger.

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting GatorsowntheNCAA:</div><div class="quote_post">I wonder how Redick would do with one eye......</div>

    [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]

    He got you there TFP.
     
  6. Shapecity

    Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

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    If the Magic need a perimeter defender who can occasionally score, why aren't they making an effort to keep DeShawn Stevenson? Based on your arguments to take Brewer or Carney and not Redick, Stevenson sure fits the description of the type of player Orlando needs.

    Replacing Stevenson with Brewer or Carney isn't going to make a difference.

    If you look at the production from the SG positions of the 8 Eastern Playoff teams compared to Orlando, only Cleveland had a worse PER at SG. However, keep in mind Larry Hughes missed a majority of last season.

    <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'>MIA23.6<br/><font color=""Green"">IND18.7<br/>MIL18.6<br/>NJ18.1<br/>DET16.7<br/>CHI15.9<br/>ORL14.2<br/>CLE11.4</font><br/></div>

    Shooting guard was the least productive position last season for the Magic on offense. If Redick falls to #11, he's not only the BAP, he also fills a need in Orlando.
     
  7. GatorsowntheNCAA

    GatorsowntheNCAA Omaha Bound 2010!

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting shapecity:</div><div class="quote_post">If the Magic need a perimeter defender who can occasionally score, why aren't they making an effort to keep DeShawn Stevenson? Based on your arguments to take Brewer or Carney and not Redick, Stevenson sure fits the description of the type of player Orlando needs.

    Replacing Stevenson with Brewer or Carney isn't going to make a difference.

    If you look at the production from the SG positions of the 8 Eastern Playoff teams compared to Orlando, only Cleveland had a worse PER at SG. However, keep in mind Larry Hughes missed a majority of last season.

    <div class='codetop'>CODE</div><div class='codemain'>MIA23.6<br/><font color=""Green"">IND18.7<br/>MIL18.6<br/>NJ18.1<br/>DET16.7<br/>CHI15.9<br/>ORL14.2<br/>CLE11.4</font><br/></div>

    Shooting guard was the least productive position last season for the Magic on offense. If Redick falls to #11, he's not only the BAP, he also fills a need in Orlando.</div>


    Personally I want us to resign Stevenson. Stevenson doesn't want to be in Orlando unless we give him more money. Stevenson isn't really worth 4-5 million, especially when we are just barely over the max threshold for next year. I would rather have the opportunity to sign a max player next year and draft Brewer/Carney and Ray for now.

    We aren't like most teams though, we have a scoring PG and a young tandem that hopefully will be offensively gifted downlow, but we have to continue to feed it down there to gain their confidence. Our SF position is loaded with points too with Hedo and (knock on wood) Grant Hill. SG isn't a priority to get points from. Our SG just won't get that many shots or be a big part of our offense.

    I wouldn't be too disappointed if we get Redick, but I would much rather have Ronnie Brewer(the more I think about it, the more I like the idea of drafting him)
     
  8. JonBoy418

    JonBoy418 JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting TheFreshPrince:</div><div class="quote_post">^^i agree, please name 3 free agents that are even close to as good a shooter as redick. Defensive players dont make a lot of money, offensive players do, why? because defense like shapecity said is almost all effort. Bowen, tashaun, big ben, hassell (sorry, had to mention him) arent even close to as physically gifted or make as much money as great scorers like michael redd or ray allen. Big ben will most likely get a big contract this year, but not as much as a great scorer from the post like Dirk</div>



    How can I name three free agents that are better than Redick when Redick hasn't even played one game in the NBA? For all we know none of Redick's skills will transfer well into the NBA. You're comparing apples and oranges.

    Furthermore, the Magic are in such a good position for the next two years at least. If you draft a strong SF/SG defender in this year's draft (I'll say Brewer, since I think he'll be there at 11) you have this line-up:

    PG: Nelson, Arroyo
    SG: Brewer, Dooling
    SF: Hedo, Ariza
    PF: Howard, 2nd rounder
    C: Milicic, Battie

    if Brewer doesn't pan out, you still have Dooling in the wings to compensate and Hedo who has the versitility to go over to SG. Then you know where to look in free agency.

    Then in free agency, I think the main target should be Morris Peterson for your outside offense. The guy is a proven three point threat in the NBA and is not a liability on defense. Then look at our SF/SG situation (barring another solid free agent signing in '07)

    SG/SF: Peterson (offense), Brewer (defense), Hedo (offense), Ariza (defense)

    Look at what Brian Hill has to work with, the versitility that he has. If he needs offense, Peterson and Hedo. If he needs a defensive stop, Brewer and Ariza.

    Plus all of those players are at least 6'6" and none of them are particlularly slow either. This could create defensive nightmares for smaller guards and on offense, Hedo or Peterson can simply rise up above those smaller guards.


    Bring in Redick, all of a sudden, you don't have the same type of versatility. You're back court is completely offensive options.
     
  9. Shapecity

    Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">The Magic had the mother of all swingman workouts on Thursday afternoon at their practice facility, bringing in six of the top shooting guards and small forwards in the draft. Villanova's Randy Foye, Arkansas' Ronnie Brewer, Memphis' Rodney Carney, Temple's Mardy Collins, Rutgers' Quincy Douby and Arizona's Hassan Adams worked out for roughly two hours against each other.

    What was the verdict? A Magic spy said the workout was very competitive, but Foye, Brewer and Carney shined the most.

    It's unlikely that Foye will be on the board when the Magic pick. However, Brewer and Carney (along with Duke's J.J. Redick) likely will be in serious consideration for Orlando's No. 11 pick.

    Orlando needs an athletic swingman to put in the backcourt with Jameer Nelson. Either Brewer or Carney would be an excellent addition.

    However, the player the Magic really covet is Washington's Brandon Roy. The Magic have been working for several weeks to move up in the draft, but they face a practical problem: How high do you have to move up to get Roy?

    Conventional wisdom says No. 4 or No. 5 in the draft. But the Bulls are seriously considering him at No. 2. The Magic probably don't have the ammunition it's going to take to get that high in the draft. Dwight Howard, Darko Milicic and Jameer Nelson are untouchable. It's doubtful a team would take a player like Carlos Arroyo or Hedo Turkoglu for a high lottery pick.</div>

    Here's an excerpt from Insider about the Magic's swingman workout. Looks like the scouts see it the same way with Carney, Brewer, or Redick being the right choice for Orlando.
     
  10. GatorsowntheNCAA

    GatorsowntheNCAA Omaha Bound 2010!

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting shapecity:</div><div class="quote_post">Here's an excerpt from Insider about the Magic's swingman workout. Looks like the scouts see it the same way with Carney, Brewer, or Redick being the right choice for Orlando.</div>

    I would put money on it that if Redick is available we will draft him. I would just prefer Brewer, then Carney, then Redick out of those 3.
     
  11. bbwSwish

    bbwSwish Harder. Better. Faster. Stronger.

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    In the article shape posted, it talks about how our main trade bait to move up high in this draft is Carlos Arroyo or Hedo Turkoglu. Would you guys want to give up either of these players to have a shot at someone like Brandon Roy?

    I don't think it would be worth it because if we give up Hedo, we are relying on Grant Hill to stay healthy. That is a huge risk and we all know that Hill is nearing the end of his career. Trading Hedo to draft Roy would solve our problem at the SG position but at the same time, create at a hole at SF.

    We should keep Arroyo too because he showed last season that he is much more reliable backup than Keyon Dooling last season and he is a very explosive scorer. He also has a large fanbase here in Orlando and trading him would hurt this franchise in multiple ways.

    Also, if we did want to do this trade, I highly doubt the other team would go along with it. Rumors are spreading that the Lakers are offering Odom to the Bulls to move up to the #2 spot and that deal is much more appealing than any one that we could draw up. Our best chance of moving up will be to picks 6-8 where we can hope to get someone like Brewer or Carney.
     
  12. TheFreshPrince

    TheFreshPrince JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting JonBoy418:</div><div class="quote_post">How can I name three free agents that are better than Redick when Redick hasn't even played one game in the NBA? For all we know none of Redick's skills will transfer well into the NBA. You're comparing apples and oranges.</div>

    Um.... no its not. Redick is an amazing shooter. if he can shoot in ther ncaa what will prevent him from shooting at that same level? also is he one of the greatest free throw shooters ever. it is 15 feet no matter where you are playing.
     
  13. Shapecity

    Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

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    2006 Free Agent List

    Looking over this list, here's a few names of players the Magic should consider to pursue for defensive wing purposes.

    1. Donta Smith - He'll come cheap, and is an outstanding on the ball defender. He doesn't get much time in Atlanta, because of the glut at forward, but with playing time he could break out for a team. Physical, athletic, strong, 6'7, and has a 7 foot wingspan.

    2. Eddie Basden - Drafted by the Bulls last year, he was injured for a good part of last season. Basden's claim to fame in college was his defense. He's a little undersized to guard Small Forwards at 6'5, but Basden can lockdown on SGs.

    3. Ruben Patterson - He would have to terminate his current deal, I'm not sure he takes the risk, but if does Patterson should be on the Magic's radar. Everyone's familiar with his game and physical nature.

    4. Devean George - The Lakers don't plan on re-signing him, but the Magic might be able to lure him over for half of their MLE. He has the playoff experience. He's a lot more effective with a shotblocker behind him on defense. George makes a lot of bonehead mistakes, but overall he's an ideal role player for post season team. He can stroke from the perimeter, crashes the boards, hustles, and is one of the better athletes in the NBA.

    5. James Posey - I was watching the Mavs-Heat game, and I kept thinking to myself, how great would this guy be for the Magic? Posey might cost a little more than Orlando is willing to pay, and is definitely out of Miami's price range, (they will be in cap purgatory) but skillset wise Posey is a great fit for Orlando.

    6. Jared Jeffries - The Wizards say they will re-sign Jeffries and he's part of their core, but they might be open to a sign & trade for the right piece (DeShawn Stevenson?) Jeffries is the tallest out of this group at 6'10, but one of the weakest offensively. However, he can defend 3 positions on the court SG/SF/PF and would give Orlando one of the tallest frontcourts in the league.
     
  14. GatorsowntheNCAA

    GatorsowntheNCAA Omaha Bound 2010!

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting TheFreshPrince:</div><div class="quote_post">Um.... no its not. Redick is an amazing shooter. if he can shoot in ther ncaa what will prevent him from shooting at that same level? also is he one of the greatest free throw shooters ever. it is 15 feet no matter where you are playing.</div>

    Who says he will ever get to the line? He won't be able to get the hole at will like he was in college and draw fouls. Also he won't be playing for Duke anymore, so he won't get the iffy calls like he's accustomed to. He will be a great shooter regardless, but with the 3 pt line being a couple feet farther back and everyone that guards him will be taller and more athletic than him I don't see him being as good of a game shooter.

    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting shapecity:</div><div class="quote_post">2006 Free Agent List

    Looking over this list, here's a few names of players the Magic should consider to pursue for defensive wing purposes.

    1. Donta Smith - He'll come cheap, and is an outstanding on the ball defender. He doesn't get much time in Atlanta, because of the glut at forward, but with playing time he could break out for a team. Physical, athletic, strong, 6'7, and has a 7 foot wingspan.

    2. Eddie Basden - Drafted by the Bulls last year, he was injured for a good part of last season. Basden's claim to fame in college was his defense. He's a little undersized to guard Small Forwards at 6'5, but Basden can lockdown on SGs.

    3. Ruben Patterson - He would have to terminate his current deal, I'm not sure he takes the risk, but if does Patterson should be on the Magic's radar. Everyone's familiar with his game and physical nature.

    4. Devean George - The Lakers don't plan on re-signing him, but the Magic might be able to lure him over for half of their MLE. He has the playoff experience. He's a lot more effective with a shotblocker behind him on defense. George makes a lot of bonehead mistakes, but overall he's an ideal role player for post season team. He can stroke from the perimeter, crashes the boards, hustles, and is one of the better athletes in the NBA.

    5. James Posey - I was watching the Mavs-Heat game, and I kept thinking to myself, how great would this guy be for the Magic? Posey might cost a little more than Orlando is willing to pay, and is definitely out of Miami's price range, (they will be in cap purgatory) but skillset wise Posey is a great fit for Orlando.

    6. Jared Jeffries - The Wizards say they will re-sign Jeffries and he's part of their core, but they might be open to a sign & trade for the right piece (DeShawn Stevenson?) Jeffries is the tallest out of this group at 6'10, but one of the weakest offensively. However, he can defend 3 positions on the court SG/SF/PF and would give Orlando one of the tallest frontcourts in the league.</div>

    Thanks for the list shape, Although, I don't think we will do anything big this year though, so that we will make sure we have enough money the following year. I would sign one of the 1st couple people for like 1 million.

    I would rather draft Ronnie Brewer to start and bring Allan Ray off the bench, then sign Donta Smith/Eddie Basden to start and bring JJ Redick off the bench.
     
  15. FlaBoy

    FlaBoy JBB JustBBall Member

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    Smith could be just like Diaw, a player they havent played but came into the right system becomes the MIP. I also like posey as he kills the magic when with the Grizz, he doesnt seem to fit in with Miami he just shoots 3s, I look at him as more of a slasher and get to the rim as hes wide and hustles alot. Poseys also a good defender which is something we need.

    Thanks Shape for the list and Gators for the thread its getting alot of attention. Which is always good.
     
  16. JonBoy418

    JonBoy418 JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting TheFreshPrince:</div><div class="quote_post"> Um.... no its not. Redick is an amazing shooter. if he can shoot in ther ncaa what will prevent him from shooting at that same level? also is he one of the greatest free throw shooters ever. it is 15 feet no matter where you are playing. </div>

    I understand that Redick is an amazing shooter at the college level, but my point is that there is no guarentee that he'll be as successful at the NBA level. Sure if he were just doing a shoot around then 15 feet is 15 feet no matter where you're playing. But add stronger, taller and more athletic players guarding him and it is comparing apples to oranges.

    He may be a great scorer in the NBA, he may not. But when spot up shooting is your only (albeit a major) contribution, then you have to raise some red flags.

    If you look at the past 10 years of the top ten NCAA men's basketball scorers for each season, you'll quickly realize that talent doesn't always transfer well into the NBA.
    http://www.ncaa.org/library/records/basket...all_records.pdf
    (go to page 29 and 30)



    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting GatorsowntheNCAA:</div><div class="quote_post">Who says he will ever get to the line? He won't be able to get the hole at will like he was in college and draw fouls. Also he won't be playing for Duke anymore, so he won't get the iffy calls like he's accustomed to. He will be a great shooter regardless, but with the 3 pt line being a couple feet farther back and everyone that guards him will be taller and more athletic than him I don't see him being as good of a game shooter. </div>

    Exactly...
     
  17. TheFreshPrince

    TheFreshPrince JBB JustBBall Member

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    ^^man, you are not looking at where those cats went to school. guys like wally and glen robinson (first anyway), earl boykins, were all great college scorers that were on the top of those lists behind guys from crappy schools. that doesnt count. and now show me the last time a guy from a top tier school averaged near 30 ppg? The last guy i can think of was pistol pete, what happened to him?

    no one is knocking morrison for his scoring ability. he is not fast or quick enough to blow by guys at the next level. he will be guarded by much more athletic and same heighted guys.
     
  18. GatorsowntheNCAA

    GatorsowntheNCAA Omaha Bound 2010!

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting TheFreshPrince:</div><div class="quote_post">^^man, you are not looking at where those cats went to school. guys like wally and glen robinson (first anyway), earl boykins, were all great college scorers that were on the top of those lists behind guys from crappy schools. that doesnt count. and now show me the last time a guy from a top tier school averaged near 30 ppg? The last guy i can think of was pistol pete, what happened to him?

    no one is knocking morrison for his scoring ability. he is not fast or quick enough to blow by guys at the next level. he will be guarded by much more athletic and same heighted guys.</div>

    Are you seriously comparing JJ Redick and Pistol Pete? Wow.

    No one is knocking Morrison because he is fast enough to drive and he can create shots for himself and his teammates. Also he is a good 2 inches taller than Redick.

    Again I don't think anyone here is bashing JJ Redick. We just don't want him on the Magic because he wouldn't make us better, since we need our SG to be more of a defensive presence, something that JJ just flat out isn't. We can get a similar and possibly better player than Redick(since he can penetrate) in the 2nd round in Allan Ray. There is absolutely 0 point to draft a backup in the lottery when you haven't made the playoffs in 3 years. It just doesn't make any sense to me at all.

    The guy was 2nd in the nation in scoring, but yet he's not really talked about in the Top 10 in a "weak draft" so there must be something wrong with him that others can see too. What good is being able to shoot a 15 foot FT when you are a spot up shooter? You won't get to the line that often, so I don't really see where you were going at with that.
     
  19. JonBoy418

    JonBoy418 JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting TheFreshPrince:</div><div class="quote_post">^^man, you are not looking at where those cats went to school. guys like wally and glen robinson (first anyway), earl boykins, were all great college scorers that were on the top of those lists behind guys from crappy schools. that doesnt count. and now show me the last time a guy from a top tier school averaged near 30 ppg? The last guy i can think of was pistol pete, what happened to him?

    no one is knocking morrison for his scoring ability. he is not fast or quick enough to blow by guys at the next level. he will be guarded by much more athletic and same heighted guys.</div>


    Now you're starting to see my perspective. And that should definately count. I mean to quote youself "it is 15 feet no matter where you are playing." Most of those guys played in smaller conferences and weak schedules, but they were still great scorers.

    Obviously conferences like the MAC, Sun Belt, Horizon etc. are vastly weaker than conferences like the Big East and ACC.

    But the Big East and the ACC are vastly inferior to the talent within the NBA. So it really doesn't matter where Redick came from, but can he succeed in a bigger and tougher league than what he is used to?

    Here are players on that list from the "BSC Conferences":
    1996 - Allen Iverson, Ray Allen
    1997 - Ed Gray, Cory Carr
    1998 - Cory Carr, Pat Garrity
    1999 - Quincy Lewis
    2000 - Eddie House, Marcus Fizer, Troy Murphy
    2001 - Rasual Butler, Marvin O'Conner
    2002 - Lynn Greer
    2003 - Troy Bell, Mike Sweeny
    2004 - David Hopkins, Ike Diogu
    2005 - Ike Diogu, JJ Redick

    Two Superstars 10 years ago. Since then, a couple of role players, a couple of busts and 7/17 (41%) I'm not even sure if they lasted one full season.
     
  20. TheFreshPrince

    TheFreshPrince JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting GatorsowntheNCAA:</div><div class="quote_post">Are you seriously comparing JJ Redick and Pistol Pete? Wow.

    No one is knocking Morrison because he is fast enough to drive and he can create shots for himself and his teammates. Also he is a good 2 inches taller than Redick.</div>

    i never compared him to pistol, i simply pointerd out that he was the last guy i could remeber that scored that well at college at a premier team. and morrison is a good 2 inches taller and a good position higher, like i said. sf's in the leaguew now are so much quicker than him (like redick) but no one is saying he wont be able to score. also allan ray CAN NOT shoot anywhere near redick's ability. he is good, but not very athletic and doesnt appear to have any desire to win. in those nova games i saw live (i eatched like 7 or 8 others on tv) when nova really needed a bucket ray wa either on the bench or hiding. foye took over every time, not ray. and when he did get the ball, he missed.

    and jonboy. quincy lewis wasnt close to 30 ppg, dont try to sneak in guys that wernt close to make your bust percentage high. put some numbers with those players please. and not a one of those guys can hold a candle shooting wise to redick.
     

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