With the 23rd pick in the 2015 draft...

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Rastapopoulos, May 29, 2015.

  1. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    Let's assume we don't trade up or trade out. What should be the best strategy with the 23rd pick? First thing to do would be to look at recent drafts and see if there's any pattern to good players taken at or after #23:

    2008
    23 Utah Kosta Koufos - C
    24 Seattle Serge Ibaka - PF
    25 Houston Nicolas Batum - SF
    26 San Antonio George Hill - PG
    31 Minnedota Nikola Pekovic Serbia - C
    34 Minnesota Mario Chalmers Kanses - PG
    35 Clippers DeAndre Jordan Texas A&M - C
    36 Portland Omer Asik Turkey - C
    37 Milwaukee Luc Richard Mbah a Moute UCLA - SF
    39 Chicago Sonny Weems Arkansas - SG
    44 Utah Ante Tomic Coratia - C
    45 San Antonio Goran Dragic Slovenia - PG
    56 Seattle Sasha Kaun Kansas - C
    60 Boston Semih Erden Turkey - C

    Wow: that was actually a pretty stacked draft after #23! And that isn't even all the players still in the NBA, because I omitted some (like Donte Green) who I think are totally meh.

    2009
    23. Kings Omri Casspi SF
    26. Bulls Taj Gibson PF
    27. Grizzlies DeMarre Carroll PF
    28. Timberwolves Wayne Ellington SG
    29. Lakers Toney Douglas SG
    31. Kings Jeff Pendergraph PF
    33. Trail Blazers Dante Cunningham PF
    34. Nuggets Sergio Llull PG
    37. Spurs DeJuan Blair PF
    39. Pistons Jonas Jerebko SF
    41. Bucks Jodie Meeks SG
    42. Lakers Patrick Beverley PG
    43. Heat Marcus Thornton SG
    44. Pistons Chase Budinger SG
    45. Timberwolves Nick Calathes PG
    46. Cavaliers Danny Green SF
    52. Pacers A.J. Price PG
    53. Spurs Nando De Colo PG
    55. Trail Blazers Patrick Mills PG

    Fewer starters in this one, but just as many rotation players. I included Llull even though he may never come to the NBA, because he's a legit star in Europe. (I don't actually like his game much - he's sort of the White Westbrook.)

    2010
    23 Minnesota Timberwolves Trevor Booker F, 6-7, 240 Clemson
    26 Oklahoma City Thunder Quincy Pondexter F, 6-6, 225 Washington
    27 New Jersey Nets Jordan Crawford (Traded to Atlanta) G, 6-4, 195 Xavier
    28 Memphis Grizzlies Greivis Vasquez G, 6-6, 210 Maryland
    33 Sacramento Kings Hassan Whiteside C, 7-0, 235 Marshall
    34 Portland Trail Blazers Armon Johnson G, 6-3, 195 Nevada
    39 New York Knicks Landry Fields F, 6-7, 210 Stanford
    40 Indiana Pacers Lance Stephenson G, 6-5, 225 Cincinnati
    55 Utah Jazz Jeremy Evans F, 6-9, 190 Western Kentucky

    Wow. This SUCKED. And I left Armon in there just for old time's sake. Let's hope it's not like THAT.

    2011
    23. Rockets Nikola Mirotic SF
    24. Thunder Reggie Jackson PG
    28. Bulls Norris Cole PG
    29. Spurs Cory Joseph PG
    30. Bulls Jimmy Butler SF
    31. Heat Bojan Bogdanovic SF
    33. Pistons Kyle Singler SF
    34. Wizards Shelvin Mack PG
    38. Rockets Chandler Parsons SF
    46. Lakers Andrew Goudelock SG
    55. Celtics E'Twaun Moore SG
    60. Kings Isaiah Thomas PG

    Better. Don't get me started on Mirotic. But interestingly, other than him, the best ones are all Americans. (I included Goudelock because he too has become a star in Europe. Word is he'll get $2M from Fenerbahce. He's very CJ-ish.)

    2012
    26. Pacers Miles Plumlee PF
    28. Thunder Perry Jones PF
    30. Warriors Festus Ezeli C
    34. Cavaliers Jae Crowder SF
    35. Warriors Draymond Green SF
    39. Pistons Khris Middleton SF
    40. Trail Blazers Will Barton SG
    48. Knicks Kostas Papanikolaou SF
    58. Timberwolves Robbie Hummel SF
    60. Lakers Robert Sacre C

    Some players here who are about to get very rich.

    2013
    23. Pacers Solomon Hill SF
    24. Knicks Tim Hardaway Jr. SG
    25. Clippers Reggie Bullock SG
    26. Timberwolves Andre Roberson SF
    27. Nuggets Rudy Gobert C
    31. Cavaliers Allen Crabbe SG
    32. Thunder Alex Abrines SG
    34. Rockets Isaiah Canaan PG
    35. 76ers Glen Rice Jr. SF
    44. Mavericks Mike Muscala PF
    45. Trail Blazers Marko Todorovic SF
    48. Lakers Ryan Kelly PF
    55. Grizzlies Joffrey Lauvergne PF

    Too soon to tell at this point. I've included Abrines and Todorovic because they are "rising stars" in Europe (the latter voted the best center in the ACB, ahead of guys like Ante Tomic and Willy Hernangomez). So this tilts international, with Gobert of course the pick of the bunch.

    2014
    23. Jazz Rodney Hood SG
    24. Hornets Shabazz Napier PG
    25. Rockets Clint Capela PF
    27. Suns Bogdan Bogdanovic SG
    30. Spurs Kyle Anderson PF
    32. 76ers K.J. McDaniels SF
    38. Pistons Spencer Dinwiddie PG
    43. Hawks Walter Tavares C

    Who knows with this lot? There could be players I've deleted who will bust out next year or in a couple of years. So you can't really tell. Probably McDaniels is the pick of the weak litter at the moment. Although I like Walter Tavares, who is HUGE (but slow) and had a big year in Europe.
     
    Last edited: May 29, 2015
  2. Pinwheel1

    Pinwheel1 Well-Known Member

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    I think this draft is deep enough that at 23 we draft an American unless we know that the international players is coming over next year. We need the player now.

    What I am leery of is taking a 6'8" tweener or a one dimensional player.
    If you can get a Gobert you do it. 23 is a pretty good spot for a Euro center......if he comes over now.

    I am still holding out hope for Wright, but I doubt he lasts that long.
     
  3. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    Okay, now let's look for patterns.

    Big name college player, deemed too slow or too small:
    Mario Chalmers ('08, 34)
    DeJuan Blair ('09, 37)
    Nick Calathes ('09, 45)
    Danny Green ('09, 46)
    Kyle Singler ('11, 33)
    Chandler Parsons ('11, 38)
    Isaiah Thomas ('11, 60)
    Draymond Green ('12, 35)
    Kyle Anderson ('14, 30)

    These are the guys that people in Madison Square Garden would be chanting for. But for every one of these there's the fear of the next Shelden Williams.

    Misc. American college players:
    Kosta Koufos ('08, 23) Too slow?
    Taj Gibson ('09, 26) Too old? USC not that good?
    Patrick Beverley ('09, 42) A SG in a PG's body?
    Trevor Booker ('10, 23) Too short for PF?
    Reggie Jackson ('11, 24) Just a stacked year for PGs?
    Jimmy Butler ('11, 30) You got me. Too slow? Not athletic enough?
    Jae Crowder ('12, 34) Classic tweener
    Khris Middleton ('12, 39) Again, no ideas.
    Spencer Dinwiddie ('14, 38) Injury?

    Former blue-chippers who slid because of character concerns:
    DeAndre Jordan ('08, 35)
    Hassan Whiteside ('10, 33) Marshall
    Lance Stephenson ('10, 40)

    Not many of those, but is Robert Upshaw this year's model?

    Small school heroes:
    George Hill ('08, 26) IUPUI (!)
    Norris Cole ('11, 28) Cleveland State
    Andrew Goudelock ('11, 46) College of Charleston
    Isaiah Canaan ('13, 34) Murray State
    Mike Muscala ('13, 44) Bucknell

    Slim pickins. Clearly the lesson here is go with the guy from the big name program rather than the star from the tiny school. Sorry Lillard.

    International:
    Serge Ibaka ('08, 24)
    Nic Batum ('08, 25)
    Nicola Pekovic ('08, 31)
    Omer Asik ('08, 36)
    Goran Dragic ('08, 45)
    Nicola Mirotic ('11, 23)
    Bojan Bogdanovic ('11, 31)
    Rudy Gobert ('13, 27)

    Some really good players here. There are also international players who have yet to come over, but who could be good, like Tomic, Llull, Todorovic, Tavares, Abrines and the OTHER Bogdanovic.

    What moral(s) can we draw here?
    1. Avoid small school stars. Unlikely to be great.
    2. Going international is a safe bet, if only because you may never need to pay them and can find out if they're busts before you sink money into them.
    3. At this point go for players with big hearts and good characters, tweenerism be damned.

    All Star 23-and-after team:

    Cs: Gobert, Jordan, Whiteside, Pekovic, Koufos, Asik
    (Surprisingly there are good Cs to be had this low, just don't expect them to be good at BOTH O and D)
    PF: Ibaka, Draymond Green, Nicola Mirotic, Taj Gibson, Trevor Booker
    SF: Batum, Chandler Parsons, Demarre Carroll, Jae Crowder
    SG: Butler, Middleton, Danny Green
    PG: George Hill, Goran Dragic, Reggie Jackson, Isaiah Thomas, Patrick Beverley
     
    Last edited: May 29, 2015
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  4. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    If we need the player now and we're going to be good, then we sign a veteran. Rookies just don't tend to contribute that much in their first years, except the absolute top players.
    If we need the player now because we're going to suck, then we're shit out of luck, because we're picking at 23.
     
  5. Blazinaway

    Blazinaway Well-Known Member

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    who we draft at 23 IMO depends on whether LMA stays or is gone, if he is gone I say take a chance on Upshaw IF our psych gal gives her OK
     
  6. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    Like Draymond Green? (In stacked shoes)

    Like Rudy Gobert? Or Hassan Whiteside? Or Omer Asik?

    Don't you remember how much of a bust Gobert looked his first year?

    I have a real weakness for big PGs and every year I fall in love with one or two. This is probably the Alvin Williams effect. (Cookie Belcher was a big crush back in the day, but that was probably the AWESOME name.) But they just. don't. pan. out.

    Here are the big PGs that I found in the above list:
    Reggie Jackson
    Spencer Dinwiddie

    That's it. Don't make me go back and find all the ones that didn't (like Kyle Weaver, another crush). MAYBE Wright's good. Maybe he's Will Barton II. Fun for a fling but not a long-term relationship.
     
  7. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    Unfortunately, the draft comes before free agency, so we really can't base our pick on LA's decision.
     
  8. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    So, you're no longer interested in George Lucas de Paula then?
     
  9. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    Olshey said they should have a good idea what the plan is by draft night and that that's when the roster building begins, not July 1st.
     
  10. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    Having a plan and knowing LA's decision are two different things.
     
  11. Fez Hammersticks

    Fez Hammersticks スーパーバッド Zero Cool

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    What dropped Gobert was his lateral movement. It was described as being in Slavko Vranes territory.
     
  12. Pinwheel1

    Pinwheel1 Well-Known Member

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    When I said one dimensional I was not thinking centers. I was thinking defensive minded SF's with no shot. Or tall SF with a great 3 point stroke but no in between game and average at best on D. However I would not consider Gobert or Whiteside one dimensional at all.

    As for Delon Wright......I have seen enough to make me think he is a true PG. Will Baron was not. Unfortunately I doubt I am alone on that and he won't fall to us. Unless there is a run on Euros right before our pick............
     
  13. Fez Hammersticks

    Fez Hammersticks スーパーバッド Zero Cool

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    You can find gems outside the lotto.

    You have more luck with Euro's.

    Jokic last year and this year it'll be Hernangomez.
     
  14. Pinwheel1

    Pinwheel1 Well-Known Member

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    Hard to believe after watching that video that was linked on this board before the draft, of him running the break like a guard.
    I understand that does not represent lateral movement, but it sure showed he was agile. Especially for his size.
     
  15. Fez Hammersticks

    Fez Hammersticks スーパーバッド Zero Cool

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    They said he ran the court well but in the half-court is where he had trouble.
     
  16. BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94

    BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94 AWOL

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    I hope we draft one of the following:

    Norman Powell
    Delon Wright
    Jerian Grant
    RJ Hunter
    Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
    Robert Upshaw
    Danilo Fuzaro
     
  17. ThugginPaulyGAllen

    ThugginPaulyGAllen Active Member

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    Robert Upshaw.

    Risk well worth it imo
     
  18. tester551

    tester551 Well-Known Member

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    These three should be the targets.
     
  19. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    Terrific breakdown, Rasta. You might be onto something here, and there's sufficient sample size to find trends
     
  20. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    I told ya, I gots a weakness. If I think of him simply as "international" then that trumps "big PG". Plus it helps that he's so young, so you can say he's a wild card.

    See? I can talk myself into anything.
     
    Last edited: May 29, 2015

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