is Portland better? * Dame & CJ are the same. Aminu and Harkless are the same, although the knee of Harkless may be an issue * Turner is the same. So is Meyers. But neither of those guys matter much or can impact a series * Nurkic is improved and that could be big. But we have to see if playoff Nurkic is at the same level as regular season Nurkic. Last year, not so much * Davis, Napier, and Connaughton have been replaced by Kanter, Curry, and Hood. I go back and forth over if Kanter is an upgrade over Davis, overall. Offensively, sure, defensively, not a chance. Curry vs Napier is interesting; Napier could do more but the one thing Curry does, he does very well. I'd like to think Hood will be an upgrade over Pat, but really, neither is the kind of player that can really change the trajectory of a playoff series * the wild card may be Layman. He's certainly improved this year. Can he a big enough factor to turn a playoff game? on paper, Portland appears to be a little better. But they still have the same vulnerability they had last year, and that pivots on how Lillard performs. I don't believe Portland can win a series if Dame is struggling, and for sure, opponents will know that. But not every team has a Holiday & Rondo to throw at Dame, or an AD to jump every pick and screen set for Dame
My thoughts precisely. The only thing I would add is they have the same coach with the same penchant for ignoring in-game adjustments. To me that will have a bigger impact on their post-season success or failure than any of the players on the roster.
Depends on a lot of things. But the way I see it is can a team filled with a lot of role players beat a more talented team? Not worried if we go up against a team of similar quality. We have enough depth now that if one of our main contributors is playing bad or gets nullified, their enough other shooters that someone can get hot. But once we go up against a team on a short rotation that can outplay us significantly, that may be it. I think maybe just come down to Stotts honestly. Since he has more talent at his disposal than he's ever had before. He may be given the opportunity to shine or go down with the ship. His track record ain't good.
You pretty much nailed it. My only quibble is that I think Kanter is unequivocally better than Davis. Davis' defense doesn't do anything to add PO wins - he's too small to guard Cs and just not good enough/quick enough to handle stretch 4s. Kanter's offense at least has the potential to add a PO win. Results may very well end up the same, but there's at least a chance Kanter can be a net positive. So Kanter/Hood/Jake are where I see this team being better than last season's team. They add at least 1-2 wins I would think.
I think you may be overrating the impact of bench players in 2015-16 when Portland won 5 playoff games, the combination of Davis, Crabbe, and Henderson added 1.3 wins according to winshares, and both Crabbe and Davis played very well in those playoffs. It's very unlikely that Kanter would add more than .2 or .3 wins above what Davis would bring. The minutes just won't be there to have that big an impact and the same will probably be true for Hood and Curry. In other words, in order to 'add' 1-2 more wins than the three players they replaced, they'd first have to make up for the wins replaced then add wins of their own. The math is against that happening Besides that, it's almost always the case that rotations tighten up in the playoff. Portland won't be playing 11 players, IMO (not unless Stotts is desperate). Dame-CJ-Aminu combined for 10 more minutes a game in the playoffs last year than they did during the regular season. That's always the case; Dame has averaged 36 minutes during his career in the regular season and 40.5 in the playoffs. CJ has gone from 35 to 39; Aminu from 29 to 32. Right there is 10-12 fewer minutes for bench players and that throttles down their production impact of course, just one of Kanter, Layman, Hood, Curry going off can change a playoff game, and one game can change a series
I'm just saying 1 or 2 wins is 1 or 2 more wins than we got last season. Kanter will be in our PO rotation, and I suspect Hood will too. Jake will be at the whim of Stotts. Everything else will essentially be the same.
This thread is so weird to me. I thought maybe I'd pulled a Rip Van Winkle and slept until just before the playoffs started. But, no, I just checked the schedule and there are still 22 games to be played in the regular season. It seems like there's a possibility that those games will show a bit more about whether the Blazers have matured into a serious contender or remain fools gold for the playoffs. Drawing a line in the sand on being "fooled" with more than a quarter of the season left seems a bit premature. But then, this place has never been short on premature speculation.
"premature speculation"....wut? this season is 60 games old already. Dame-CJ-Aminu-Harkless have played nearly 1500 games as Blazers. Add Meyers and Turner to those other four players, and it's a combined 2100 games we've seen these guys. Nurkic has started over 160 games as a Blazer Portland has the same starting lineup for over two seasons, and four of the same starters for 4 seasons. And it's not like the games of Hood and Kanter are a mystery; combined they've played 13 seasons and over 900 games. We have a pretty good idea about what they can do, and what they can't. We've seen the players, we've seen the starters, and we've seen the roster operate for enough time to at least have plenty of informed speculation.
Ed Davis is/was virtually unplayable in the playoffs due to his complete lack of an offensive game. I understand the defensive argument, but he was getting shredded on that end as well. So our defense was trash AND our offense came to a GRINDING stop with him in the game as defenders paid no attention to him. Kanter is a monster upgrade, even if his defense is worse...and Ed Davis defense in the playoffs was trash and got called for quite a few fouls iirc. Curry is better than Shabazz in my opinion. Shabazz is a little too CJ-esque; a massively shittier version of Kemba Walker. Hood + Layman blow Connaughton out of the water. Dame is better than he was last year, in general, in my opinion. CJ is about the same. Aminu and Harkless are both probably worse. Turner is better in my opinion because he has a more suitable role. Meyers is definitely better, but like you said, he won't matter much. I would say we're noticeably better and more well-rounded with clear talent upgrades. I do not think we have the same issues as last year. We have multiple ball handlers and shooters and we have gotten "bigger" as well. We don't have to consistently trot out CJ, Dame, and Shabazz.... Which was absolutely pathetic. And the last thing you said reminds me of why, although I loved Ed Davis, I was so glad to see him gone... You can't have AD marching out 30 ft from the hoop all game long and be nearly as aggressive with your defensive sets if Nurk + Kanter are playing rather than Ed Davis. A big portion of shutting down Dame and CJ done can be attributed to Ed Davis and his lack of offense -- pretty sure Neil even stated this as to why he let Ed go...
I don't think we've seen enough of Hood + Kanter as Blazers, in this system, to have informed speculation as to how they'll integrate moving forward or how they'll impact the playoff run. Systems, rotations, adjustments matter -- unfortunately for us on the "rotations" and "adjustments" portion.
I would like to answer this question after our road trip. I will say this though we got rid of a little chaff and picked up a couple of good basketball players. from the last 3 games Dame has not had to play Hero ball once, I think he is averaging 2 more assists a night then before the acquisition and not as many points. CJ actually came out in the last game when everybody was not doing so well and took over which is what he was supposed to do. I think some of the bench guys are a little butt hurt with less minutes. I also think they got it figured out that the team got better so their sphincter chaffing might be ok cause they got some ointment. But before I start chanting WCF I would like to see a bit more and at least get out of the first round.
Still nervous about when and if Stotts gets trapped, he won't figure a way out of it until maybe the series is over. I'm not confident in his ability to adjust. On paper? We have more than enough talent to win a first round series obviously. Just like we did last year though. Better though. It's the coach who needs to exploit and adjust and knowing his history, I'm just not convinced after 7 seasons something is going to click for him. Saying that, we SHOULD win a first round playoff series at the very least.
He/she was probably referencing this sentence: Are we seeing it again, or are they actually proving to be more than just first round fodder?
So, a 5 game winning streak, 4 of them on this road trip. Fourth in the West, half a game out of third, 4 out of second and 5 out of first. Quality wins over the Warriors, Philadelphia and Boston in this streak. The Blazers are playing team ball and winning despite Dame and CJ being generally off with their outside shooting. Kanter and Hood barely know anything about the offense yet the second unit is contributing. Damn! These guys are really good at fooling some of us gullible fans.
If you could compare us to an MLB team who would it be and why. Baseball isn't even a sport obviously, but I just thought I'd ask your opinion.
Utah It is too frustrating playing against Harden and CP3. You know they will eventually get more calls
