You be the GM: Nurkic extension this summer?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by PtldPlatypus, Apr 5, 2017.

  1. theprunetang

    theprunetang where's my chippy?

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    Just ran in to Nurkic at The Nest on Belmont. Holy shit he is big!
     
  2. BlayZa

    BlayZa ANGHELLiC

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    if we could sign him and trade turner or crabbe and hope-fuckin-fully meyers + pick if needed, for a PF of any note, we'd be in a good spot
     
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  3. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    upload_2017-4-6_6-53-19.png

    Due to the new CBA, Nurk will make more than $27M. That's year 2 of Nurk's contract. Year 3 is over $90M.

    But my math is truly off!
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2017
  4. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Drink up!

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    You're pointing to 2019-20 numbers, but BNM was referencing 2018-19. Tough to have a reasonable discussion if you're in two different places.

    That said, the cap projection for 2018 (when a Nurkic max deal would begin) is currently 103M, which would correlate to a BRI of 230.22M. Due to the lower cap calc for salaries (42.14% vs 44.74%), Nurk's max salary for 2018-19 would be 24.25M, so his salary at max for 2019-20 (factoring in the 7.5% raise) would be 26.07M. Coupled with the Dame/CJ salaries you show for 2019-20, their combined salary for 2019-20 would be 83.43M.

    So yes, your math is off.

    upload_2017-4-6_7-10-5.png
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2017
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  5. tlongII

    tlongII Yes I am smarter than you

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    ^Alternative Facts^
     
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  6. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Good Enough to Own Shoes

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    So is your reading comprehension.

    BNM
     
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  7. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Drink up!

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    To be fair, he originally said "two years from now", which could easily be intended to refer the the beginning of the league year that commences two years and 3 months from now, or the 2019-20 season. 18-19 was your (completely reasonable) assumption, not his assertion.

    However, now that things have been clarified (you're welcome), now you can argue about the same things instead of different ones.
     
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  8. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    We're still facing the $90M for 3 players situation, period.

    There's not much more to say about it.
     
  9. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Drink up!

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    Sure--in the 2020-21 season. By that point, the cap is projected to be 120M, with a tax line at 143M, so we'll probably be OK.

    To give more precise figures, with Nurk at a max deal (again, using the $103M projected salary cap for 2018), the combined salaries for Dame, CJ, and Nurkic will be as follows:
    --2018-19: 77,991,031
    --2019-20: 83,431,874
    --2020-21: 88,872,718
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2017
  10. yuyuza1

    yuyuza1 Writing Team

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    The same will be true for about 20 teams by then
     
  11. BBert

    BBert BBring It On!!

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    Are you alright? Any broken bones? Contusions? How's your fretting hand?
     
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  12. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Only the teams paying 3 players max contracts. I think most teams don't do that, and haven't under any BRI level.
     
  13. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    http://www.nba.com/article/2016/12/14/nba-and-nbpa-reach-tentative-labor-deal

    "Significant increases across the board in player contracts, including maximum salaried players"

    (I think your calculations are off by several million, as Nurk may start at ~$30M 1st season)
     
  14. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

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    Last thing on earth I worry about is Paul Allen's money
     
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  15. yuyuza1

    yuyuza1 Writing Team

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    Just estimating here, even this upcoming summer:

    GS- Steph, KD, Draymond and Klay not far behind
    HOU- Harden, Anderson, Gordon, not quite 90 mil, but will get there once Harden hits free agency
    UTA- Hayward, Gobert, Favors up for extension, talk of Hill nearing max and Hood coming up for an extension year after
    LAC- CP, Blake, DeAndre, will they bring back JJ?
    MEM- Conley, Gasol, Parsons
    NOP- Cuz, Davis, Holiday

    And Min, PHX, DEN will have max extensions coming up by 2020.


    This is the new norm.
     
  16. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Drink up!

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    Looking at the details on that sentence as addressed in the link, it seems to primarily apply to the 10-year-vet max salaries. You're operating under an assumption that the starting max salary for a player with 0-6 years of experience will be higher than 25% of the cap. I haven't seen anything to indicate that that is the case.

    EDIT: I do see an article indicating that the lower cap figure for salary calculation that I referenced will no longer exist, so that will impact things a bit. I'll recalculate and update.
     
  17. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Exactly. Most teams won't be doing it.

    You've listed 9 out of 30.
     
  18. yuyuza1

    yuyuza1 Writing Team

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    9 of 15 in the west. Really gonna make me do this in the east?

    CLE: Bron, Love, Kyrie
    BOS: Thomas, Horford, and if they get a FA or Butler, they're on
    TOR: Derozan and Lowry on their own will be nearly at 75 mil next summer. Add Ibaka as a near max FA and they're screwed
    WSH: Wall, Beal, Porter
    DET: Drummond, KCP, Jackson
    CHA: Nic, Zeller, Marvin Williams, Kemba, Plumlee, MKG make up nearly 110 mil

    That's 15 of 30 in just a year or so. In 20-21, the majority will be the case.
     
  19. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Drink up!

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    Based on the additional information I found regarding max salaries being based on the actual salary cap (which explains the line you quoted about all salaries going up, including maximum salaries), here's the updated projection regarding the size of a Nurkic max (assuming the same 25% base that has existed since '99), and using the most recent cap projections I can find.

    upload_2017-4-6_9-27-37.png

    If you find fault with the calculations, feel free to specify where and why.
     
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  20. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    FWIW, I read an article that talked about how CJ missed out on an even bigger contract by a year due to the new CBA rules. My educated guess is that Nurk will benefit from the rule and get a bigger deal than CJ did. My assumption is Nurk gets close to $30M to start.

    I don't find fault with your calculations. My ~$90M figure still looks good.
     

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