Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by PtldPlatypus, Apr 5, 2017.
Just ran in to Nurkic at The Nest on Belmont. Holy shit he is big!
if we could sign him and trade turner or crabbe and hope-fuckin-fully meyers + pick if needed, for a PF of any note, we'd be in a good spot
Due to the new CBA, Nurk will make more than $27M. That's year 2 of Nurk's contract. Year 3 is over $90M.
But my math is truly off!
You're pointing to 2019-20 numbers, but BNM was referencing 2018-19. Tough to have a reasonable discussion if you're in two different places.
That said, the cap projection for 2018 (when a Nurkic max deal would begin) is currently 103M, which would correlate to a BRI of 230.22M. Due to the lower cap calc for salaries (42.14% vs 44.74%), Nurk's max salary for 2018-19 would be 24.25M, so his salary at max for 2019-20 (factoring in the 7.5% raise) would be 26.07M. Coupled with the Dame/CJ salaries you show for 2019-20, their combined salary for 2019-20 would be 83.43M.
So yes, your math is off.
So is your reading comprehension.
To be fair, he originally said "two years from now", which could easily be intended to refer the the beginning of the league year that commences two years and 3 months from now, or the 2019-20 season. 18-19 was your (completely reasonable) assumption, not his assertion.
However, now that things have been clarified (you're welcome), now you can argue about the same things instead of different ones.
We're still facing the $90M for 3 players situation, period.
There's not much more to say about it.
Sure--in the 2020-21 season. By that point, the cap is projected to be 120M, with a tax line at 143M, so we'll probably be OK.
To give more precise figures, with Nurk at a max deal (again, using the $103M projected salary cap for 2018), the combined salaries for Dame, CJ, and Nurkic will be as follows:
The same will be true for about 20 teams by then
Are you alright? Any broken bones? Contusions? How's your fretting hand?
Only the teams paying 3 players max contracts. I think most teams don't do that, and haven't under any BRI level.
"Significant increases across the board in player contracts, including maximum salaried players"
(I think your calculations are off by several million, as Nurk may start at ~$30M 1st season)
Last thing on earth I worry about is Paul Allen's money
Just estimating here, even this upcoming summer:
GS- Steph, KD, Draymond and Klay not far behind
HOU- Harden, Anderson, Gordon, not quite 90 mil, but will get there once Harden hits free agency
UTA- Hayward, Gobert, Favors up for extension, talk of Hill nearing max and Hood coming up for an extension year after
LAC- CP, Blake, DeAndre, will they bring back JJ?
MEM- Conley, Gasol, Parsons
NOP- Cuz, Davis, Holiday
And Min, PHX, DEN will have max extensions coming up by 2020.
This is the new norm.
Looking at the details on that sentence as addressed in the link, it seems to primarily apply to the 10-year-vet max salaries. You're operating under an assumption that the starting max salary for a player with 0-6 years of experience will be higher than 25% of the cap. I haven't seen anything to indicate that that is the case.
EDIT: I do see an article indicating that the lower cap figure for salary calculation that I referenced will no longer exist, so that will impact things a bit. I'll recalculate and update.
Exactly. Most teams won't be doing it.
You've listed 9 out of 30.
9 of 15 in the west. Really gonna make me do this in the east?
CLE: Bron, Love, Kyrie
BOS: Thomas, Horford, and if they get a FA or Butler, they're on
TOR: Derozan and Lowry on their own will be nearly at 75 mil next summer. Add Ibaka as a near max FA and they're screwed
WSH: Wall, Beal, Porter
DET: Drummond, KCP, Jackson
CHA: Nic, Zeller, Marvin Williams, Kemba, Plumlee, MKG make up nearly 110 mil
That's 15 of 30 in just a year or so. In 20-21, the majority will be the case.
Based on the additional information I found regarding max salaries being based on the actual salary cap (which explains the line you quoted about all salaries going up, including maximum salaries), here's the updated projection regarding the size of a Nurkic max (assuming the same 25% base that has existed since '99), and using the most recent cap projections I can find.
If you find fault with the calculations, feel free to specify where and why.
FWIW, I read an article that talked about how CJ missed out on an even bigger contract by a year due to the new CBA rules. My educated guess is that Nurk will benefit from the rule and get a bigger deal than CJ did. My assumption is Nurk gets close to $30M to start.
I don't find fault with your calculations. My ~$90M figure still looks good.
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