Zach Collins: 17-18 season postmortem

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Wizard Mentor, Jul 9, 2018.

  1. TorturedBlazerFan

    TorturedBlazerFan Well-Known Member

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    To be honest I never wrote him on.
    I’ll cheer for him, I see moments here and there, but I have never left “wait and see” with him.
     
  2. Wizard Mentor

    Wizard Mentor Wizard Mentor

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    Last Year: I was Excited.
    This Year: I'm Optimistic.
    If he finishes the season with a sub-15 PER: I'll be Nervous
    Otherwise: Back to Excited.

    In no way, shape, or form am I writing him off. I haven't read a lot of other posters writing him off, either.
     
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  3. Hoopguru

    Hoopguru Well-Known Member

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    He’s really know different then Simons this year.
    Very young and probably at least two years away from coming into his own.
    These younsters as a rule are going to take Time.
    Dame would not have been ready after his freshman year, very few are!
     
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  4. Strenuus

    Strenuus Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    i loved his defense. Im excited about that. Anything from offense is a bonus. So these stats arent really that meaningful, imo.
     
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  5. TorturedBlazerFan

    TorturedBlazerFan Well-Known Member

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    The issue I have is that there are plenty of other guys just as young who are better. We tend to bet a lot on potential, and I think Collins might be good someday but I also think it’s just as likely he’s a bust.
     
  6. James lamphear

    James lamphear Well-Known Member

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    His added weight and his added strength already has help him on defense side. Remember last year when challenge players at rim he would either fly into the front seats not so much this year. Offensively he just needs to keep working maybe more arch on his shot might help.
     
  7. Hoopguru

    Hoopguru Well-Known Member

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    I guess he could be a bust from form what Ive seen of him after getting consistent minutes is steady improvement and good feel for the game.
    There aren't to many (a few) one and done big guys as a percentage, that really excel their first year with very limited minutes.
     
  8. Propagandist

    Propagandist Well-Known Member

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    One thing for sure, if he wants to have a long career, he needs to stay away from Summer League.
     
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  9. jlprk

    jlprk The ESPN mod is insane.

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    This is great! An actual realistic thread in which I'm not a traitor for not adoring someone!

    For 15 years I've been unable to get people to like this site, but you can see his pre- and post-All Star break and a lot more breakdowns.

    http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketbal...-blazers/players/zach-collins/stats/18/25/396
     
  10. TorturedBlazerFan

    TorturedBlazerFan Well-Known Member

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    I guess we will find out. A lot of young big guys struggle, but his numbers were not just, “I struggled a bit”, they were pretty bad. He is good on team defense, and that will carry him for a while but he will have to get better to stick around.
     
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  11. JDC

    JDC Well-Known Member

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    Zach's going to be fine. Too smart, hard working and skilled not to improve.

    Already impacts the game defensively and will do so even more with the added strength and being able to play more center w/o Ed Davis around where we'll be able to better leverage his excellent pnr and paint defense. He's too good in both areas to be stuck chasing around stretch 4's like we saw much of last year.

    I think the LMA comparison people have liked to make is what's causing lot of the disappointment. Zach never had that kind of upside on offense, especially from a usage perspective. Doesn't have the length and high release that allowed LMA to get his game off against virtually any match up.

    Zach's is much more of a support piece offensively. If his face up game develops, he may have 3rd option upside.
     
  12. Wizard Mentor

    Wizard Mentor Wizard Mentor

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    good post. Just to add a quick addendum:
    Last year was the first year he played on the perimeter, and he admitted to being uncomfortable there. This year he's playing down low. This should help him.
     
  13. e_blazer

    e_blazer Rip City Fan

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    Because the Blazers played him out of position at PF (and because his frame hadn’t filled out to allow him to play center anyway) we really don’t know much about what Zach is going to ultimately do in his career. IMO, his stats from last year mean virtually nothing. He’d played zero minutes at PF and never on the perimeter before last season. Olshey has restructured the roster by not re-signing Ed to force a change in Zach’s usage by Stotts. Olshey has a lot riding on Zach panning out since he picked him and sold him as a future franchise player. I haven’t seen enough to convince me yet that he can be that impactful of a player, but I would love to be proven wrong.
     
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  14. Strenuus

    Strenuus Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    I dont think hes a franchise player, but hes a rotation guy in my mind. Kinda like Nurk.
     
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  15. TorturedBlazerFan

    TorturedBlazerFan Well-Known Member

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    I need to do some research on this but it’s bugging me so I’m going to make a post and get called out because I’m an idiot! :emotions:

    Doesn’t it scare you a bit when guys get drafted and the mantra is wel this is a pick for 3 or 4 years from now? How many of those guys become stars? I’m sure there’s examples but it seems like after a year or two in the NBA you kind of know if a guy can play or not. Sometimes a guy has a really good player in front of him and doesn’t get minutes like CJ when Wes was here.
    Almost all really good to great NBA players you knew pretty quick they were special. Sure Zach was 19 but lots of 19 year olds have come into the league and played better.
    The thing is with Zach sure there were moments s here and there but he really has a lot of growth to do just to become a pretty good back up. I still feel after trading up to the 10th spot they could’ve got a better player , I know hindsight isn’t fair so I won’t name names.
     
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  16. RR7

    RR7 Well-Known Member

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    While I love Zach, and am a big believer in him, I'll say I had this exact same thought earlier, wondering how many guys break out 2,3,4 years after being drafted, versus an almost immediate, or after 1 year breakout.
    But, regardless of that, still love Zach.
     
  17. BigGameDamian

    BigGameDamian Well-Known Member

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    Is he untouchable though?
     
  18. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    Well it used to be all the time when high school kids were drafted. I've stated this numerous times, but I was fucking pissed off and fuming that we traded up for Collins. I wanted Mitchell so badly. I've completely come around on Collins though.

    The patience thing with me is almost purely due to his body. If he puts on weight with his deceptive quickness and tough attitude I think he can be special. What won me over is his defensive instincts. When I watch really good defensive teams like GS was with a healthy Bogut and Draymond Green, it's like they're playing a different game. They know when to help or rotate. They know when to stay on their man and they know when to go straight up and when to go for a block. It takes so much pressure off the perimeter defenders when they know the guys behind them are always going to be in the right position. These are the types of defensive details I see with Zach and I think he'll get better as he gets more respect from the refs and develops a reputation so he doesn't get in foul trouble.

    As for offense, there isn't much I don't like either other than the fact he just isn't making shots consistently enough. Although he shot just 31% from 3, I definitely think he can get that closer to 40% because his form is decent and I believe he will put in the necessary time to add that to his game. He doesn't do it often but there were a couple times last year that I recall him getting the ball outside the 3 point line and putting the ball on the floor to get to the hoop for a lay-in. He's got good post up moves that will get better as he gets stronger. His little "Dirk" fade away has the potential to be money. Once again he shot it horribly last year but I think he'll figure it out. I also likes that he takes care of the ball and is a good passer too.

    He does need to use his toughness to become a more ferocious rebounder. He needs to be so much better than he's shown so far but the glimpses he's shown are intriguing.
     
  19. mook

    mook The 2018-19 season was the best I've seen

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    He's been unarguably the best defender on the court in two summer league games, fwiw.

    The more I watch him, the more he reminds me of Theo Ratliff, at least in terms of impact on the game. He's just really, really good at blocking and altering shots near the rim. It's his one bankable skill. He doesn't give you great rebounding or scoring or passing or screens or...pretty much anything else at this point. He's also pretty good at bothering perimeter shots on runouts I guess.

    It just so happens his one skill is actually a really great complement to our star guards.

    Now that Ed Davis is gone, I'd really like to see him paired up with Nurk more. I think having both of them in there could really shut down the paint and allow our guards to go over every screen. Give teams even more long 2s and see what happens.

    Obviously, we drafted the wrong guy. But it's not a total disaster. He's got one very useful skill, and hopefully it'll be something he can use to leverage himself into more minutes and hopefully develop other skills.
     
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  20. PHXBlazer1

    PHXBlazer1 Well-Known Member

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    His defensive instincts are on point and he definitely understands the principle of verticality. If his offensive game develops he'll be a very good player.
     

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