He was my main target from the gettyup last year. He has all the tools you want in the evolving, modern center. I see Denver's Raef LaFrentz in his skillset.
He’s producing without any plays run for him. He won’t get any love nationally because the numbers don’t really stand out, but it’s pretty clear he’s going to be a very good player. I think he’ll be the best overall big in his class.
After tonight's game, he's 51/44/67. The 67 isn't really significant as he's only shot 3 free throws in January.
The scary thing with Collins is, at each level he starts slow and gradually erupts. He was a late bloomer in HS and a non-starter in college, but still managed to become the star of the team and then some. This year, many wrote him off as the wrong lottery pick between our two PF's. He just keeps getting better, and we've literally yet to see how good he can become at any level of competition. I think it was before the draft but possibly after, I said he'd be in the running for player of the year if he stayed at Gonzaga for soph season. Imagine how dominant he'd be looking right now against that level of competition, picking up where he left off instead of taking a step back while getting acclimated to the next level.
I want to believe in Collins. Last night before the game I ran comparisons of Jermaine O'Neal, both Gasols, Nowitzki, Z-bo, Aldridge, Porzingis, Bosh,Nurkic, Jokic, AK47 and a couple others, all in their first years. Not a single one of them except Draymond Green (7.1) had a PER below 11.0 as a rookie. And Draymond was being used as a SF back then. Even Nick Collison started out his career at 15.0. Meyers Leonard had a rookie year with a PER of 12.1. Zach Collins currently sits at 8.5 after 500 minutes of actual NBA playing time. I pretty much gave up hope after that. And then I saw him play last night, and I read the numbers about his January shooting. It is nice to see his threes falling, and if they continue to I can definitely see him getting more minutes and producing more, lifting him up. But I don't know, man. If three of his three point attempts in January don't go in, he's having a 32% month. Such a small sample size. He's already an above-average NBA defender, which is a huge plus as a 7 footer and will keep him in the league as long as he's mobile. So I'm not worried about him being a total bust--for a 10th pick it's perfectly acceptable to get a decent bench player. But I'm not nearly as optimistic as I was at the start of the season. I'm kind of foreseeing more of an Ed Davis-type of career.
Who thought that? A Meyers jump shot means I have time for a bathroom break without missing commercials
Ed Davis: Career Minutes = 10,954 Made 3-Pointers = 0 Zach Collins: Career Minutes = 496 Made 3-Pointers = 17 Ed Davis: Rookie PER = 15.8 Current PER = 15.9 (8th NBA Season) In his 8th season, Ed Davis is the exact same player he was as a rookie. His game hasn't grown. In fact, it's shrunk as he has focused on what he does best. A little over a month ago, Zach Collins had a negative PER. He's now at 8.5. His PER is currently going up every game he plays. In his very brief career, his trajectory is very, very different than Ed Davis. Don't get me wrong, I love Ed, but Collins has barely scratched the surface of his potential. Several of the players you compared him to were much older and had much more experience as rookies. The Gasols had a lot of international experience and Marc was 24 as a rookie. Nick Collison was a 24-year old rookie who had been a 4-year starter at a major Division 1 powerhouse. Draymond played 4 years at Michigan State. Dirk, Porzingis, Kirilenko, Nurkic, and Jokic came up through a different system where they were playing against better competition at an earlier age. You're comparing a very young, very raw Zach Collins, who is literally getting better by the day to several future Hall of Famers, some of the greatest European players ever and guys who have multiple all star appearances, and you're basing it on a stat (PER) that largely ignores his biggest strength (defense). Even still, at his current rate of improvement, his PER will be well into double digits, and quite similar to several of the players you mentioned, by the end of his rookie year. Your conclusion is premature. BNM
This post is not only accurate, it's Beautiful! Don't get me wrong, Zach still has some kinks to work out. He's not getting to the line often enough. His assist to turnover ratio is just under 1. I'm not sure his rebounding rate is very high. But, he still sees his job as "setting picks" (his words) for Dame and CJ. He's not trying to make stuff happen for himself, he's trying to help the team win. Here's Zach calling for the ball from CJ (good sign), then handing off to Lillard while setting a screen where he just erases Matthews:
