He could always make a leap in year two or three, but odds are he's going to be nothing but a journeyman -- a good D, low-usage offensive player.
I wonder what Collins would look like had he been drafted to Chicago in place of Markkanen. Would he be putting up 16/8 type numbers playing 30 min a night?
I don't think so. He's getting a nice run with the Blazers, and will have improved scoring numbers when his shot consistently fall. Markkanen can flatout shoot the rock NOW. But I like Collins progress, especially altering shots at the hoop defensively.
You can’t evaluate a player and adjust after 50 games? He has not shown himself to be a future all star or fringe star which is kind of where I pegged him. The premature take is thinking he can live up to that level before seeing him play against nba competition, not after. It’s not that he is going to be this player for his entire career but it is unlikely he becomes part of a “big 3” where we see him on a similar level to dame and cj.
Based on the first half of his rookie season as a 19/20 year old? Damn some of y'all are so impatient with this kid.
I think it’s more disappointment considering how many rookies are having impacts on their team this season, had we taken Zach last season in a hypothetical world we would be more patient and accepting because it was a weak draft.
I'm holding out hope that he makes his living as a quality defensive specialist. Seems to be his start right now. I've posted in the past how disappointed I've been in him statistically. But I put together some comparables of similar kinds of defensive specialists, and those guys really didn't have great numbers at anything in their first season. I like the Ibaka upside comparison.
It’s easy to forget Draymond’s rise, dude is an asshole but I respect the work he put in. Also, interesting facts about these guys: Gobert: 27th overall Green: 35th overall Ibaka: 24th overall Prince: 23rd overall Wallace: Undrafted Collins: 10th overall...
I have great hopes for him as a C in the future. Right now, he's averaging 3.9 PPG in just a couple minutes less time than Ed Davis (who is putting up significantly better stats). He was outplayed by Vonleh, too (though barely). He's only 20, but he's getting enough PT to develop. I think he's at last 2 seasons away from being a guy we count on in the clutch (if need be). It looks to me like he's got NBA skills already and he is likely to show improvement as he gets older.
Think of how many late lottery picks don't amount to shit. So yeah I stand by what I said -- odds are he'll end up a journeyman, and nothing in his rookie campaign gives me the faintest inkling he'll be an elite offensive player; odds are the traits would have showed up by now if they were there. So . . . He could still do the unlikely and suddenly display those traits in subsequent seasons, but I wouldn't bet on it.
CJ: Year one 5.3 pts per game. Year two 6.8 pts per game. Year three 20.8 pts per game. I didn't see much from him in the first two years to think he would explode in year three. Zach needs time, period.
No shit. The guy is already 20 years old and he's still playing like he's half way through his rookie season. Time to cut bait, I say.
This is basically what I was saying. Bones just has those rosey glasses of fandom on and thinks if you wait long enough everyone will blossom into a star ala Jermaine O'neal. I cant blame him either... I was hyped on the collins pick until summer league and I saw just how overmatched he was. When that continued into the regular season and through till now I adjusted my projections. He has shown some upside since then he isn't another Meyers... but he is no Markaanen talent wise and it's not close. He can become a good role player like fellow Zag Kelly Olynk but that is probably his ceiling. Expecting him to become a foundational piece going forward is a mistake IMO.
I have rosy glasses on? More like I know the game. I'm pretty even-keeled. I've watched Collins probably 5x as much as you. He has good footwork, touch, can put the ball on the floor a little bit... He's just not fully comfortable or strong enough yet to be a complete offensive player. Why wouldnt that change?
