Zach Collins' Present and Future Thoughts

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by JDC, Feb 17, 2018.

  1. BBert

    BBert Weasels Ripped My Flesh

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    Hahaha. I'm glad your sarcasm meter is tuned in and turned on ;)

    Either that or you just never take me seriously in the first place :smiley-wink:

    :cheers:
     
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  2. BBert

    BBert Weasels Ripped My Flesh

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    My single most favoritist thing about Zach, is his demeanor when he gives someone a hard foul and they are lying on the floor. He doesn't give them a second look, doesn't help them up, just struts on by, slowly. :)
     
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  3. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Ok, well lets use your logic against you. Lets compare Donovan Mitchell's (likely ROY) freshmen year compared to Zach Collins' freshman year.

    PER 40 MIN
    Mitchell - 12.9 FGA
    Collins - 12.3 FGA

    Collins would've likely had more FGA if he wasn't playing on the 2nd best team in the country.
    And with all this "passiveness", Zach is attempting 10FGs Per 36, and that's with him playing a type of basketball he never has before (perimeter-oriented) and being a 20-year-old rookie.
    ---
    Lets say with a few years under his belt, he gets more comfortable and attempts 13FGs Per 36. I think he could do so while shooting 55% from 2pt on nine 2s a game and 36% from 3pt on four 3s a game.
    That's 4.95 / 9 from 2pt
    that's 1.44 / 4 from 3pt
    that's 6.39 /13 from the field
    (49FG% / 36 3pt%)
    Lets say he also gets 3FTs a game and makes 75%
    That would be 16.5Pts Per 36 Min with him taking one more shot every 12 minutes than he does now.
    ---
    You don't think he'll shoot 1 more shot every 12 minutes once he gets more comfortable?
    And maybe he doesn't get that efficient, but even if he's close he's still giving a very good point production for a rim protector and would also space the floor. Lack of aggression won't ever be a problem. He's nothing like Batum mentally.
     
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  4. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    And he's being used in a way he's never been used before! I think he's doing a fine job. He has great shooting form and should definitely turn into a good 3pt shooter. For someone that was never used as a shooter, to be a rookie rim-protecting big shooting 32% from 3pt is promising. Some people, however, will simply see that "32%" and assume he'll never be a good 3pt shooter (which fits the ridiculous narrative that he won't ever help offensively). He's also shown flashes of being able to put the ball on the floor and drive. This is something that will get much, much better when he gets more comfortable.

    And rookie bigs take longer to develop even if they're used in the same way as the were in college as simply a rebounder, interior defender, and a finisher around the rim.
     
  5. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Never knew you were a Gonzaga fan. Pretty rare on this board. Surprising also, because if you watched him throughout college then you should've been able to see what this kid can do, and at least shouldn't be writing him off this early. You think I didn't watch him throughout college? Lmao. Don't get salty because I assumed I've watched him 5x more than you. Not touting myself, you're takes just come across as ignorant and as if you've barely watched him play. I'll explain below:

    Why the hell couldn't he be DeAndre with a jumper? He has a better DBPM than DeAndre did his rookie season. While Zach doesn't have the blk rate that DeAndre did, he's already holding opponents to a 45 FG% at the rim. He's only played "somewhat solid defense"?... False. He's been good on that end, and the stats back it up.

    As far as the shooting goes, you expected Collins to shoot a great percentage from 3pt when he's never been used out there consistently and has to adjust to the NBA 3pt line? But since he's shooting 32%, he won't become a floor-spacer?
    Porzingis shot 33% from 3pt in year 1
    Towns shot 34% from 3pt in year 1
    Collins is shooting 32% from 3pt in year 1
    Porzingis and Towns are now both shooting above 39% in year 3.
    Collins also has a great, simple form. There's no reason to be down on his shooting.

    Has he been good offensively this year? No. But there's also NO reason to be down on his long-term potential because of this year. Using the first 40-some games of his 1st season with the huge adjustment he has to make is silly, and I've tried to explain why. I know you want the 20-year-old to already play like a prime Serge Ibaka, but have patience.
     
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  6. H.C.

    H.C. Well-Known Member

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    It was however an opportunity change.
    When CJ was backing up Matthews, CJ was a spot up shooter who rarely got the opportunity to play with the ball in his hands.
    Nor was he asked to score 20ppg due to the starting 5 Portland had.
    Once CJ actually had the opportunity to have the ball in his hands he flourished.
    Collins right now is playing with three players who should get the ball before he does in every situation.
    Not saying Collins is going to turn into a 20+ppg scorer, and nearly hitting 50/40/90. But for a rookie not having any plays ran for him, he's looked far from lost.
     
  7. chzbrgr

    chzbrgr Well-Known Member

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    Calling me ignorant while in the same breath comparing Collins to "prime DeAndre Jordan with a jumper" is in itself breathtaking so, congrats on that achievement! And by "watching him throughout college" you mean all of one season?
    BTW I never wrote him off. I know it requires a little reading comprehension which isn't your strong suit, good on you for trying I guess but, I never wrote him off. Unless not considering him a 1st ballot HOF type of player is writing him off then I guess I did. I give him credit for his defense but again, idk how much of this is actually getting through since the last 3 times I said it haven't seemed to stick.

    By your own admission Collins has not been good on offense this year so let's start again here

    Lets look at his shooting numbers:
    Collins (4/3/1)

    3pt: .317 2pt: .414 ft: .560 Efg: .437

    These are on limited albeit mostly uncontested attempts, would you agree?
    OK n
    ow Lauri Markkanen (15/8 this year):
    3pt: .356 2pt: .501 ft: .863 Efg: .516


    KAT (averaged 18.3ppg and won ROY)
    3pt: .341 2pt: .559 ft: .811 Efg: .555

    KP (14/7/2blk as a rookie)
    3pt: .333 2pt: .421 ft: .838 Efg: .467

    These are on more volume however more difficult attempts, would you agree?
    If you do, then you are admitting that Collins is less efficient with easier attempts. Collins' numbers are pretty obviously anemic in comparison. Especially if you look at his midrange numbers, which kind of prove my point even more since according to your infallible expertise, he is still getting used to the distance. 3-10ft: .233 10-16ft: .263 16-3p: .300 .....yikes. Collins simply has not played well on that side of the ball idk why that is all of a sudden news to you. Outside of a few flashes here or there he just has not shot it well or been able to score in general. He has only scored in double digits twice all year (11, 10 they came in back to back games). Scored 5pts or less in more than 75% of his games played and he has almost as many games with 0 points (10) than he has games with more than 5 (12).

    The one thing you got right is that I do want him to be good and shooting is the one skill that can be learned and improved the most dramatically. I hope he does improve, for the sake of the franchise he better. We took him over Donovan Mitchell, the player Dame wanted, and a potential superstar. If Collins turns out to be what I think, which is a nice player but not a franchise changer, we will be looking back on this as a draft mistake of epic proportions.

    But who am I kidding you don't actually read this, and if you do you wont understand the message in it.
    Cause I just come off as ignorant.
     
  8. Wizard Mentor

    Wizard Mentor Wizard Mentor

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    I know Nate opened the door by comparing him to LM, KAT, and KP, but personally, I have found comparing a 20 year old rookie coming on the bench who has almost no plays run for him ON A PLAYOFF team to dudes who are given the GREEN LIGHT on TEAMS THAT COMPLETELY SUCK is ridiculous.

    I'm not worried about Zach at all, but yes, I'd like to see him at around a 15 PER instead of an 8. He had a great January, and has struggled in Feb. He wasn't selected to play AS weekend, so maybe he'll go on a Dame-style FU tour!

     
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  9. Blazinaway

    Blazinaway Well-Known Member

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    Bottom line for me is its way too early, I frankly am not that impressed for a 10 pick but realize he just turned 20 and played backup in college 1 yr. So he gets a pass this yr from me, offensive is poor but pretty decent D for a rook, we'll see
     
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  10. tykendo

    tykendo Don't Tread On PDX

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    I think the offense will come around. He has good form on his shots. But you can't teach his quick twitch skills on the defensive end, and THAT! excites me about his future with the Blazers.
     
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  11. Fez Hammersticks

    Fez Hammersticks スーパーバッド Zero Cool

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    Length extension?

    Collins is elite in this category with his 9'3" reach!

    For comparison:

    LaMarcus: 9'2"
    Oden: 9'3"
    Whiteside: 9'5"
     
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  12. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    So I say this:
    Then you say this:
    and ironically, this:
    :clap:

    And then you ramble on about him not being good offensively this year throughout the small sample size of 638 minutes (which I already stated), as if you're proving the point that it somehow effects his long-term outlook, without addressing what I said about how and why it's going to be a rough adjustment period for a while.

    But please tell me why he doesn't have the potential to be a prime DeAndre Jordan with a jumpshot and more well-rounded offensive game?
    Does he not have the potential to be the defender DJ was? (which makes no sense, because if we're going to use the small sample size of this year which you're doing, Zach has been better than DeAndre was at the same age)
    Or does he not have the potential to be a good shooter with a more well-rounded offensive game than DeAndre? (which isn't exactly saying much)
     
  13. BLAZINGGIANTS

    BLAZINGGIANTS Well-Known Member

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    I like turtles.

    Oh....

    And I still like Zach Collins’ future in the NBA.
     
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  14. JDC

    JDC Well-Known Member

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    Maybe it's wingspan related, but his impressive standing reach hasn't translated into being an effective finisher against legit size and athleticism. It was a problem in college and continues to be a problem in the NBA.
     
  15. GrandpaBlaze

    GrandpaBlaze Predictions Game Master

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    While I love a good BBIQ, it doesn’t overcome raw talent. Zach has talent and high IQ, but there are others with flat out more talent.

    I think Zach will grow to be a very good role player but have retired my hopes for more.
     
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  16. Blazer Freak

    Blazer Freak Superstar in the Making

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    Bones has a very popular YouTube show...you should respect his opinion as gospel and just accept he is a fan in ways you cannot be! :blahblah:
     
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  17. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Thank you so much!
     
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  18. mook

    mook The 2018-19 season was the best I've seen

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    Yeah, and it's also important to note that there are probably 500 ex-NBA players with similar stats who were out of the league after their first contract.
     
  19. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    He's a complete work in progress. He hasn't lived up to the 10th pick in a loaded draft to this point. He has good footwork, and good defensive instincts, but everything else is a meh at best. Obviously, he could get better, but tgere is still a chance that he is this.
     
  20. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    He was picked 4 picks after Zach.
     

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