Zogby Poll: Equilibrium in the POTUS Race!

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Denny Crane

Denny Crane

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8/30/2008
Zogby Poll: Equilibrium in the POTUS Race!

Brash McCain pick of AK Gov. Palin neutralizes historic Obama speech, stunts the Dems' convention bounce
<hr> UTICA, New York - Republican John McCain's surprise announcement Friday of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate - some 16 hours after Democrat Barack Obama's historic speech accepting his party’s presidential nomination - has possibly stunted any Obama convention bump, the latest Zogby Interactive flash poll of the race shows.
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="375"> <tbody><tr> <td> [SIZE=+1] [/SIZE]</td> </tr> </tbody></table>​
The latest nationwide survey, begun Friday afternoon after the McCain announcement of Palin as running mate and completed mid-afternoon today, shows McCain/Palin at 47%, compared to 45% support for Obama/Biden.
In other words, the race is a dead heat.

The interactive online Zogby survey shows that both Obama and McCain have solidified the support among their own parties - Obama won 86% support of Democrats and McCain 89% of Republicans in a two-way head-to-head poll question not including the running mates. When Biden and Palin are added to the mix, Obama's Democratic support remains at 86%, while McCain's increases to 92%.

After the McCain "Veep" announcement on Friday, Palin was almost immediately hailed as a strong conservative, and those voters have rallied to the GOP ticket, the survey shows. Republicans gather in St. Paul, Minnesota this week to officially nominate McCain and Palin as their presidential ticket.
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td width="307">
Does the selection of Sarah Palin help or hurt John McCain's chances of winning the presidential election in November?​
</td> <td width="77">
8/29-30​
</td> <td width="204">
Zogby Poll One Week Ago: Does Biden Help or Hurt Obama?​
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="307"> Will help him
</td> <td valign="top" width="77">
52%​
</td> <td width="204">
43%​
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="307"> Will hurt him
</td> <td valign="top" width="77">
29%​
</td> <td width="204">
22%​
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="307"> Will make no difference
</td> <td valign="top" width="77">
10%​
</td> <td width="204">
26%​
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="307"> Not sure
</td> <td valign="top" width="77">
10%​
</td> <td width="204">
9%​
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Overall, 52% said the selection of Palin as the GOP vice presidential nominee helps the Republican ticket, compared to 29% who said it hurt. Another 10% said it made no difference, while 10% were unsure. Among independent voters, 52% said it helps, while 26% said it would hurt. Among women, 48% said it would help, while 29% said it would hurt the GOP ticket. Among Republicans, the choice was a big hit - as 87% said it would help, and just 3% said it would hurt.

Pollster John Zogby: "Palin is not to be underestimated. Her real strength is that she is authentic, a real mom, an outdoors person, a small town mayor (hey, she has dealt with a small town city council - that alone could be preparation for staring down Vladimir Putin, right?). She is also a reformer."

"A very important demographic in this election is going to be the politically independent woman, 15% of whom in our latest survey are undecided."

"In the final analysis, this election will be about Obama vs. McCain. Obama has staked out ground as the new JFK - a new generation, literally and figuratively, a new face of America to the world, a man who can cross lines and work with both sides. But McCain is the modern day Harry Truman - with lots of DC experience, he knows what is wrong and dysfunctional with Washington and how to fix it, and he has chosen a running mate who is about as far away from Washington as he could find.

"This contest is likely to be very close until the weekend before the election - then the dam may break and support may flood one way or the other."

The interactive survey shows that 22% of those voters who supported Democrat Hillary Clinton in their primary elections or caucus earlier this year are now supporting John McCain.

Among those who said they shop regularly at Wal-Mart - a demographic group that Zogby has found to be both "value" and "values" voters - Obama is getting walloped by McCain. Winning 62% support from weekly Wal-Mart shoppers, McCain wins these voters at a rate similar to what President Bush won in 2004. Obama wins 24% support from these voters.

Other demographic details are fairly predictable, showing that the McCain/Palin ticket heads into its convention on Monday with numbers that may fuel an optimism they may not have expected, and that many would not have predicted, especially after Obama's speech Thursday night.
Still, storm clouds remain on the horizon for the Republicans, a four-way horserace contest between McCain, Obama, Libertarian Bob Barr and liberal independent Ralph Nader shows.

<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td width="199">
The Four-way Horserace​
</td> <td width="60">
Total​
</td> <td width="60">
Dems​
</td> <td width="60">
GOPers​
</td> <td width="60">
Indies​
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="199"> Obama
</td> <td width="60">
44%​
</td> <td width="60">
85%​
</td> <td width="60">
4%​
</td> <td width="60">
39%​
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="199"> McCain
</td> <td width="60">
43%​
</td> <td width="60">
8%​
</td> <td width="60">
87%​
</td> <td width="60">
33%​
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="199"> Barr
</td> <td width="60">
5%​
</td> <td width="60">
2%​
</td> <td width="60">
4%​
</td> <td width="60">
11%​
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="199"> Nader
</td> <td width="60">
2%​
</td> <td width="60">
1%​
</td> <td width="60">
1%​
</td> <td width="60">
4%​
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="199"> Other/not sure
</td> <td width="60">
7%​
</td> <td width="60">
7%​
</td> <td width="60">
5%​
</td> <td width="60">
12%​
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>​

The online survey was conducted Aug. 29-30, 2008, and included 2,020 likely voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points.

For a detailed methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1331
 
Gallup's barely out of the noise, the others are effectively a tie.

Gallup hasn't factored in McCain's VP choice yet.
 
Denny Crane said:
Gallup's barely out of the noise, the others are effectively a tie.

Gallup hasn't factored in McCain's VP choice yet.
Click to expand...

You sure?
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 28-30, including two days of interviewing since the close of the Democratic National Convention, finds Barack Obama with a six percentage point lead over John McCain in the presidential contest, 48% to 42%.
Click to expand...
 
I'm sure.

It's a 3 day rolling poll :)
 
The Palin nomination has clearly diminished any bump Obama should have gotten from his convention.

Zogby is a Democrat. Read what he said.
 
Denny Crane said:
The Palin nomination has clearly diminished any bump Obama should have gotten from his convention.

Zogby is a Democrat. Read what he said.
Click to expand...

Obama still has a decent bump, look at the polls a few days ago. I thought the DNC did a nice job in Colorado, let's see if the GOP can retort.
 
He should have gone up by a lot. At least Gore and Kerry had bigger bumps.

One thing about the Palin pick that I didn't consider is that she's energized McCain's base. They raised $4M in internet donations the first day, and if they are active in the get-out-the-vote part at the end, it's going to be a doozy of a finish.
 
Denny Crane said:
He should have gone up by a lot. At least Gore and Kerry had bigger bumps.

One thing about the Palin pick that I didn't consider is that she's energized McCain's base. They raised $4M in internet donations the first day, and if they are active in the get-out-the-vote part at the end, it's going to be a doozy of a finish.
Click to expand...

I liked the idea of picking Palin because I didn't think McCain could continue to be passive. She could easily fall flat on her face though, in fact, 7% more people in that Zogby poll dislike her compared to Biden (she does have a net gain but she's polarizing). Your favorite poll still has Obama ahead, and Obama has consistently fought off McCain since the Hillary war ended.

Mac will raise more money as time passes but she could also get dragged through the mud by the Dems, the way Hillary tainted Obama to a degree in that freakishly long primary process. Biden is the safer choice for a reason, and Barry is the guy on top.
 
huevonkiller said:
You sure?
Click to expand...

The current results are based on Aug. 27-29 interviewing, which includes two nights of polling during the convention and one post-convention night on Friday. The Friday interviewing was conducted in an unusual political environment -- the first conducted fully after Obama's well-regarded acceptance speech and McCain's surprise announcement of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate. Each event in isolation has usually been associated with increased candidate support for the relevant party. On this day -- with strong partisan forces pushing the public in both directions -- Obama still polled better than he had been prior to the convention, but not as well as he was polling on the individual nights of the convention.
 
Denny Crane said:
One thing about the Palin pick that I didn't consider is that she's energized McCain's base.
Click to expand...


That isn't McCain's true base, but the people he is pandering to. He needs those conservatives to come out and vote.

McCain is pandering to the devil (the religious wrong) to get elected. The Republican leadership selected a pro-life person that wants creationism taught in school as his VP. Unfortunately, those sheep will vote early and often.
 
I don't disagree with any of that, cpawfan. I find McCain's overall pandering to be disgusting. But transparent.
 
Denny Crane said:
The Palin nomination has clearly diminished any bump Obama should have gotten from his convention.

Zogby is a Democrat. Read what he said.
Click to expand...

Gallup's poll today has Obama at 49% and McCain at 43%. This includes the three days after the VP nomination of Sarah Palin. McCain's bounce was about 2% but that's in the margin of error so in the end even though it was more talked about than Biden and helped a little more, it really just energized his base. That'll help but I think McCain already had his base.
 
Neither candidate has been over 50%, though Obama finally seems to be closing in. I'd expect Obama to be winning this by a huge margin in the polls at this point. 6% is barely out of the margin of error and only in this one poll and doesn't represent even half the kind of bounce that Kerry or Gore got after their conventions.

For the record, the two most accurate polling organizations the last two presidential elections were Zogby and Rasmussen.
 
huevonkiller said:
WOW, Mac is getting CRUSHED today in the polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

Rasmussen now has Obama +6, USA-Today/Gallup is +7, Hotline is +9.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/charts.html

The bump hasn't died yet.
Click to expand...

Yeah he finally hit 50% in the gallup today. It'll be interesting how the polls look at this time next week. Although the most important polling will come after the debates. Then we'll know who's message is starting to work.
 
I'm wondering if McCain's campaign might be running low on money. I've been seeing tons of ads from both candidates, but none from McCain since he congratulated Obama for being anointed the nominee. That, or they decided not to run ads, anticipating the convention is the equivalent of a big long ad.
 
Obama is still leading by an average of 5.8 points. Rasmussen has him at +5, and Gallup is at +6.
 
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/04/opinion/polls/main4416798.shtml

CBS Poll: McCain, Obama Tied

McCain Closes Eight-Point Gap From Poll Taken Last Weekend


(CBS) <!-- sphereit start -->The presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain is now even at 42 percent, according to a new CBS News poll conducted Monday-Wednesday of this week. Twelve percent are undecided according to the poll, and one percent said they wouldn't vote.

This is in contrast to a poll conducted last weekend, where the Obama-Biden ticket led McCain-Palin by eight points, 48 percent to 40 percent.

McCain has also closed the enthusiasm gap some with Obama, but it still exists. Fifty-five percent of Obama's supporters are enthusiastic about their choice, and now so are 35% of McCain's. Last weekend, just 25 percent of McCain's supporters were enthusiastic about him, compared to 67 of Obama's supporters.<hr>
 
That RNC bump is now neutralizing Barry to a degree, but he's still on top. Gallup has him +4, Hotline is at +6.
 
Virtual tie.

Remember, they think there's 4:3 or 5:3 registered democrats to republicans so they multiply the result by that factor to nomalize their results. If they called 2000 people and the votes were 1000 obama, 1000 mccain, they'd use 4:3 x 1000 = 1333 obama to 1000 mccain in the poll results.

It's not a bad methodology, don't get me wrong. What may make it way out of whack is that both obama and mccain are appealing candidates to people of neither party or at getting crossover votes. The 4:3 thing may not be as accurate this time around. It makes a lot of sense when voters of both parties are so partisan that they'd only consider voting for the guy at the top of the party ticket.
 
Actually, Rasmussen may explain it better:

Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis). For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated.
 
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548

Released: September 06, 2008 Zogby Poll: Republicans Hold Small Post-Convention Edge
But the race is tight, as both campaigns consolidate support

UTICA, New York - Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin left St. Paul, Minnesota, with a smallish bounce overall and some energy in key demographic groups, as the race for the presidency enters a key stage and voters begin to tune in to the contest, the latest Zogby Interactive poll finds.​
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="375"> <tbody><tr> <td> [SIZE=+1] [/SIZE]</td> </tr> </tbody></table> [/SIZE]​

The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure. ​
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top" width="223"> The Ticket Horserace
</td> <td valign="top" width="60"> 9-5/6
</td> <td valign="top" width="72"> 8-29/30
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="223">
McCain-Palin​
</td> <td valign="top" width="60"> 49.7%
</td> <td valign="top" width="72"> 47.1%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="223">
Obama-Biden​
</td> <td valign="top" width="60"> 45.9%
</td> <td valign="top" width="72"> 44.6%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="223">
Others/Not sure​
</td> <td valign="top" width="60"> 4.4%
</td> <td valign="top" width="72"> 8.3%
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
In the two-way contest in which just McCain and Obama were mentioned in the question, the result was slightly different, with McCain leading, 48.8% to 45.7%. ​
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td valign="top" width="223"> One-on-One Horserace
</td> <td valign="top" width="60"> 9-5/6
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="223">
McCain​
</td> <td valign="top" width="60"> 48.8%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="223">
Obama​
</td> <td valign="top" width="60"> 45.7%
</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="223">
Others/Not sure​
</td> <td valign="top" width="60"> 5.5%
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
In a Zogby Interactive survey conducted last weekend, just after the McCain announcement that Palin would join his ticket, McCain Palin won 47.1% support, while Obama/Biden won 44.6% support. ​
The interactive survey of 2,312 likely voters nationwide was conducted Sept. 5-6, 2008, and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points. ​
Pollster John Zogby: "Clearly, Palin is helping the McCain ticket. She has high favorability numbers, and has unified the Republican Party. The striking thing here in this poll is that McCain has pulled ahead among Catholics by double-digits. On the other hand, Palin is not helping with likely voting women who are not aligned with either political party. The undecided independent women voters decreased this week from 15% to 7%, but those women went to Obama. Palin is also helping among men, conservatives, notably with suburban and rural voters, and with frequent Wal-Mart shoppers, who tend to be "values" voters who like a good value for their money."​
McCain's favorability rating increased from 50% favorable last week to 57% favorable now, a significant jump that indicates the GOP convention was a success. Among independent voters, 61% now have a favorable impression of him, compared to just 49% who said the same a week ago.​
Nearly half - 49% - said they had a favorable opinion of Barack Obama, while 50% they had a negative impression of him. Among independent voters, 47% gave him favorable marks, compared to 46% who said the same thing last week.​
Among the vice presidential candidates, 54% said they now hold a favorable view of Palin, while 42% hold an unfavorable view. While 49% have a favorable opinion of Joe Biden, 47% hold an unfavorable view of him. ​
Just one week ago, 23% told Zogby that they did not know enough about Palin to make a judgment about whether they held a favorable or unfavorable view of her - but this most recent survey shows just 4% were unfamiliar with her - another indication that likely voters paid attention to the GOP convention this week, which won the highest television viewership numbers ever earned by an American political convention.​
-Z-
​
Zogby International was the most accurate pollster in every one of the last three presidential election cycles, and continues to perfect its telephone and interactive methodologies using its own live operator, in-house call center in Upstate New York, and its own secure servers for its online polling projects.​
In the 2004 presidential election, not only was Zogby's telephone polling right on the money, its interactive polling also nailed the election as well. In 2006, the Zogby Interactive online polling was on the money in 17 of 18 U.S. Senate races (the 18<sup>th</sup> was within the margin of error) a record of accuracy that is unmatched in the industry - as no other leading firm even attempts to poll statewide political races using an interactive methodology for public consumption.​
For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit:​
(9/6/2008)
 
What I'm interested to see is the polls in three weeks, after the first debate, when Obama is off his teleprompter in front of millions of people, and McCain is in his element.
 
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