Zogby Poll: Equilibrium in the POTUS Race!

8/30/2008
Zogby Poll: Equilibrium in the POTUS Race!

Brash McCain pick of AK Gov. Palin neutralizes historic Obama speech, stunts the Dems' convention bounce
<hr> UTICA, New York - Republican John McCain's surprise announcement Friday of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate - some 16 hours after Democrat Barack Obama's historic speech accepting his party’s presidential nomination - has possibly stunted any Obama convention bump, the latest Zogby Interactive flash poll of the race shows.

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[SIZE=+1]Data from this poll is available here[/SIZE]​

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The latest nationwide survey, begun Friday afternoon after the McCain announcement of Palin as running mate and completed mid-afternoon today, shows McCain/Palin at 47%, compared to 45% support for Obama/Biden.
In other words, the race is a dead heat.

The interactive online Zogby survey shows that both Obama and McCain have solidified the support among their own parties - Obama won 86% support of Democrats and McCain 89% of Republicans in a two-way head-to-head poll question not including the running mates. When Biden and Palin are added to the mix, Obama's Democratic support remains at 86%, while McCain's increases to 92%.

After the McCain "Veep" announcement on Friday, Palin was almost immediately hailed as a strong conservative, and those voters have rallied to the GOP ticket, the survey shows. Republicans gather in St. Paul, Minnesota this week to officially nominate McCain and Palin as their presidential ticket.
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Does the selection of Sarah Palin help or hurt John McCain's chances of winning the presidential election in November?​

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8/29-30​

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Zogby Poll One Week Ago: Does Biden Help or Hurt Obama?​

</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="307"> Will help him
</td> <td valign="top" width="77">

52%​

</td> <td width="204">

43%​

</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="307"> Will hurt him
</td> <td valign="top" width="77">

29%​

</td> <td width="204">

22%​

</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="307"> Will make no difference
</td> <td valign="top" width="77">

10%​

</td> <td width="204">

26%​

</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="307"> Not sure
</td> <td valign="top" width="77">

10%​

</td> <td width="204">

9%​

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Overall, 52% said the selection of Palin as the GOP vice presidential nominee helps the Republican ticket, compared to 29% who said it hurt. Another 10% said it made no difference, while 10% were unsure. Among independent voters, 52% said it helps, while 26% said it would hurt. Among women, 48% said it would help, while 29% said it would hurt the GOP ticket. Among Republicans, the choice was a big hit - as 87% said it would help, and just 3% said it would hurt.

Pollster John Zogby: "Palin is not to be underestimated. Her real strength is that she is authentic, a real mom, an outdoors person, a small town mayor (hey, she has dealt with a small town city council - that alone could be preparation for staring down Vladimir Putin, right?). She is also a reformer."

"A very important demographic in this election is going to be the politically independent woman, 15% of whom in our latest survey are undecided."

"In the final analysis, this election will be about Obama vs. McCain. Obama has staked out ground as the new JFK - a new generation, literally and figuratively, a new face of America to the world, a man who can cross lines and work with both sides. But McCain is the modern day Harry Truman - with lots of DC experience, he knows what is wrong and dysfunctional with Washington and how to fix it, and he has chosen a running mate who is about as far away from Washington as he could find.

"This contest is likely to be very close until the weekend before the election - then the dam may break and support may flood one way or the other."

The interactive survey shows that 22% of those voters who supported Democrat Hillary Clinton in their primary elections or caucus earlier this year are now supporting John McCain.

Among those who said they shop regularly at Wal-Mart - a demographic group that Zogby has found to be both "value" and "values" voters - Obama is getting walloped by McCain. Winning 62% support from weekly Wal-Mart shoppers, McCain wins these voters at a rate similar to what President Bush won in 2004. Obama wins 24% support from these voters.

Other demographic details are fairly predictable, showing that the McCain/Palin ticket heads into its convention on Monday with numbers that may fuel an optimism they may not have expected, and that many would not have predicted, especially after Obama's speech Thursday night.
Still, storm clouds remain on the horizon for the Republicans, a four-way horserace contest between McCain, Obama, Libertarian Bob Barr and liberal independent Ralph Nader shows.

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The Four-way Horserace​

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Total​

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Dems​

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GOPers​

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Indies​

</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="199"> Obama
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44%​

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85%​

</td> <td width="60">

4%​

</td> <td width="60">

39%​

</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="199"> McCain
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43%​

</td> <td width="60">

8%​

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87%​

</td> <td width="60">

33%​

</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="199"> Barr
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5%​

</td> <td width="60">

2%​

</td> <td width="60">

4%​

</td> <td width="60">

11%​

</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="199"> Nader
</td> <td width="60">

2%​

</td> <td width="60">

1%​

</td> <td width="60">

1%​

</td> <td width="60">

4%​

</td> </tr> <tr> <td valign="top" width="199"> Other/not sure
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7%​

</td> <td width="60">

7%​

</td> <td width="60">

5%​

</td> <td width="60">

12%​

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The online survey was conducted Aug. 29-30, 2008, and included 2,020 likely voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points.

For a detailed methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1331

 

Gallup's barely out of the noise, the others are effectively a tie.

Gallup hasn't factored in McCain's VP choice yet.

 

I'm sure.

It's a 3 day rolling poll

 

The Palin nomination has clearly diminished any bump Obama should have gotten from his convention.

Zogby is a Democrat. Read what he said.

 

He should have gone up by a lot. At least Gore and Kerry had bigger bumps.

One thing about the Palin pick that I didn't consider is that she's energized McCain's base. They raised $4M in internet donations the first day, and if they are active in the get-out-the-vote part at the end, it's going to be a doozy of a finish.

 

The current results are based on Aug. 27-29 interviewing, which includes two nights of polling during the convention and one post-convention night on Friday. The Friday interviewing was conducted in an unusual political environment -- the first conducted fully after Obama's well-regarded acceptance speech and McCain's surprise announcement of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate. Each event in isolation has usually been associated with increased candidate support for the relevant party. On this day -- with strong partisan forces pushing the public in both directions -- Obama still polled better than he had been prior to the convention, but not as well as he was polling on the individual nights of the convention.

 

I don't disagree with any of that, cpawfan. I find McCain's overall pandering to be disgusting. But transparent.

 

Neither candidate has been over 50%, though Obama finally seems to be closing in. I'd expect Obama to be winning this by a huge margin in the polls at this point. 6% is barely out of the margin of error and only in this one poll and doesn't represent even half the kind of bounce that Kerry or Gore got after their conventions.

For the record, the two most accurate polling organizations the last two presidential elections were Zogby and Rasmussen.

 

I'm wondering if McCain's campaign might be running low on money. I've been seeing tons of ads from both candidates, but none from McCain since he congratulated Obama for being anointed the nominee. That, or they decided not to run ads, anticipating the convention is the equivalent of a big long ad.