Gauging CJ's value

Welcome to our community

Be a part of something great, join today!

Rastapopoulos

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 30, 2008
Messages
43,863
Likes
28,001
Points
113
It really seems like people on this board actually undervalue CJ, at least the loud minority do. Yes, he's overpaid. Yes, he has maddening deficiencies (hence "MeJ"). But he's still a pretty solid NBA player, even if he might be hard to find a good fit for. Anyway, I thought I'd take a look at a couple of fairly well-respected measures of NBA worth to see where he falls. Here's "Estimated Plus-Minus" (which came out first in the stat that GM's like):
upload_2021-12-2_10-51-35.png
Above Dejounte Murray (and Nurk!), and not far below Beal and SGA.

How about RAPTOR WAR:

upload_2021-12-2_10-54-9.png

Above young hotshots like Darius Garland and Cole Anthony, and just one step below Harden, and only a smidge below Beal and Donovan Mitchell.

Anybody want to over a counter narrative? Or perhaps point out that this is damning with faint praise?
 
It really seems like people on this board actually undervalue CJ, at least the loud minority do. Yes, he's overpaid. Yes, he has maddening deficiencies (hence "MeJ"). But he's still a pretty solid NBA player, even if he might be hard to find a good fit for. Anyway, I thought I'd take a look at a couple of fairly well-respected measures of NBA worth to see where he falls. Here's "Estimated Plus-Minus" (which came out first in the stat that GM's like):
View attachment 42546
Above Dejounte Murray (and Nurk!), and not far below Beal and SGA.

How about RAPTOR WAR:

View attachment 42547

Above young hotshots like Darius Garland and Cole Anthony, and just one step below Harden, and only a smidge below Beal and Donovan Mitchell.

Anybody want to over a counter narrative? Or perhaps point out that this is damning with faint praise?

I can practically hear the furious clicking of @wizenheimer ‘s keyboard as he assembles his spreadsheets to refute your heresy.
 
It really seems like people on this board actually undervalue CJ, at least the loud minority do. Yes, he's overpaid. Yes, he has maddening deficiencies (hence "MeJ"). But he's still a pretty solid NBA player, even if he might be hard to find a good fit for. Anyway, I thought I'd take a look at a couple of fairly well-respected measures of NBA worth to see where he falls. Here's "Estimated Plus-Minus" (which came out first in the stat that GM's like):
View attachment 42546
Above Dejounte Murray (and Nurk!), and not far below Beal and SGA.

How about RAPTOR WAR:

View attachment 42547

Above young hotshots like Darius Garland and Cole Anthony, and just one step below Harden, and only a smidge below Beal and Donovan Mitchell.

Anybody want to over a counter narrative? Or perhaps point out that this is damning with faint praise?
Great! Send it out to every GM in the league!
 
Obviously both those stats have many scrubs rated higher than CJ. This is a problem! But the fact that CJ, whom most of this board seems to see as a net negative, that we would literally be better if he was out for the season, registers not-too-terribly, is I think worth noting. Especially as he's playing (certainly shooting) significantly worse than last season (WILSON!!!).
 
He’s underrated at least on a mediocre team. But for certain player types like CJ, their value does not scale to great teams. Replace Jrue Holiday with CJ and that’s a huge downgrade for the Bucks. But on a crappy team that can’t score it might be closer to a wash.
 
I can practically hear the furious clicking of @wizenheimer ‘s keyboard as he assembles his spreadsheets to refute your heresy.

no spreadsheet needed

in the last 3 seasons, CJ has missed 38 games. Portland's record in those games, was 24-14. That's a fairly decent sample size made more dramatic by the fact that Nurkic also missed 28 of those 38 games. That's about a 52 win pace, without CJ. With Nurkic it would have likely been quite a bit higher
 
no spreadsheet needed

in the last 3 seasons, CJ has missed 38 games. Portland's record in those games, was 24-14. That's a fairly decent sample size made more dramatic by the fact that Nurkic also missed 28 of those 38 games. That's about a 52 win pace, without CJ. With Nurkic it would have likely been quite a bit higher
Doesn't it depend who those teams were? For example, the Blazers handily beat the Pistons last game without Dame, but I don't think that fact should be used against Dame.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RR7
Doesn't it depend who those teams were? For example, the Blazers handily beat the Pistons last game without Dame, but I don't think that fact should be used against Dame.

38 games seems a pretty decent sample size...no?

this is your thread....your stat showed CJ the equal of James Harden and almost as good as Beal and Mitchell. Do you think that's his value? EPM shows he's better than Nurkic...I'm assuming in this case better = more valuable. Do you think CJ is more valuable to Portland than Nurkic?
 
Last edited:
I'm not a stat head, so you tell me - is the drop in TS% from 58% to 53% significant? The eye-ball test suggests he is become less efficient/more selfish. Since being a reasonably efficient scorer represents most of his value that's an obvious problem.

Let's assume Olshit is fired and his replacement puts out the word he is accepting offers. What would you honestly expect? My honest prediction is that the best we could hope for was an equally bad contract that was a little shorter. CJ is a high quality role-player who is paid like an all-star.
 
I'm not a stat head, so you tell me - is the drop in TS% from 58% to 53% significant? The eye-ball test suggests he is become less efficient/more selfish. Since being a reasonably efficient scorer represents most of his value that's an obvious problem.

Let's assume Olshit is fired and his replacement puts out the word he is accepting offers. What would you honestly expect? My honest prediction is that the best we could hope for was an equally bad contract that was a little shorter. CJ is a high quality role-player who is paid like an all-star.

58% > 53% is a fairly significant drop in TS%. CJ's career mark is is 55% so last season's 58% is wider variance than this season's 53%

Looks like a lot of the smaller guards in the league have taken a big efficiency hit this year. I'd estimate that the new foul rules make it much easier to re-direct the smaller players and bump them into lower efficiency. I'd also wonder if the smaller hands of smaller player are having grip problems with the new basketball...just a theory from my colon

my guess is that CJ's trade value isn't nearly as high as many Blazer fans have assumed. But I doubt if it's ever been tested because I don't think Olshey has ever offered CJ
 
Let's pick on Bradley Beal. Why is he seen as such a big deal? He's never been a good defender and he's notoriously not much of a three-point shooter. But he's perpetually mentioned as the other guy Morey is drooling over besides Dame. If he's All That, surely CJ is close to being so.

(Plus he's a fuckin anti-vaxxer.)
 
Who are these CJ-overvaluing fans? It's been my experience that fans of other teams seem to like CJ better than we do.

Seeing a guy play once or twice a season vs seeing him 82 times a season. Which one is likely to produce a more accurate evaluation?
 
Seeing a guy play once or twice a season vs seeing him 82 times a season. Which one is likely to produce a more accurate evaluation?
I know. It's just everybody here seems to think everybody else really loves CJ when I don't think anybody here counts as a real CJ fan. Poor CJ - I hope he doesn't ever come across this hellsite.
 
Let's pick on Bradley Beal. Why is he seen as such a big deal? He's never been a good defender and he's notoriously not much of a three-point shooter. But he's perpetually mentioned as the other guy Morey is drooling over besides Dame. If he's All That, surely CJ is close to being so.

(Plus he's a fuckin anti-vaxxer.)

Hey, I've said repeatedly that Morey doesn't want the "best" deal, he wants the deal he can give the best PR spin. I have no problem seeing him prefer Wall or Westbrick to a better player with fewer Sports Center appearances.
 
Let's pick on Bradley Beal. Why is he seen as such a big deal? He's never been a good defender and he's notoriously not much of a three-point shooter. But he's perpetually mentioned as the other guy Morey is drooling over besides Dame. If he's All That, surely CJ is close to being so.

(Plus he's a fuckin anti-vaxxer.)

Beal is severely overrated. I was very unimpressed when I watched him on the Olympic team (before they left for Japan.) Also, it's funny because he was drafted as a shooter.
 
Beal is severely overrated. I was very unimpressed when I watched him on the Olympic team (before they left for Japan.) Also, it's funny because he was drafted as a shooter.

he's another one of the 'smaller' players that seems to have been hammered by the new foul rules and new basketball:

upload_2021-12-2_10-46-16.png

he is at a career high in assists, but also a career high in turnovers

Wizards are doing well this season. Sure helps they are getting 41 points, 21 rebounds and 7 assists from the three guys traded for Westbrook
 
58% > 53% is a fairly significant drop in TS%. CJ's career mark is is 55% so last season's 58% is wider variance than this season's 53%

Looks like a lot of the smaller guards in the league have taken a big efficiency hit this year. I'd estimate that the new foul rules make it much easier to re-direct the smaller players and bump them into lower efficiency. I'd also wonder if the smaller hands of smaller player are having grip problems with the new basketball...just a theory from my colon

my guess is that CJ's trade value isn't nearly as high as many Blazer fans have assumed. But I doubt if it's ever been tested because I don't think Olshey has ever offered CJ
How does that compared to other starting shooting guards? Is he top 15, amongst shooting guards?
 
How does that compared to other starting shooting guards? Is he top 15, amongst shooting guards?

doesn't look like it:

Danny Green 65.5
Pat Connaughton 65.3
Seth Curry 64.7
Mike Conley 64.6
Otto Porter Jr. 64.5
Grayson Allen 63.6
Patty Mills 63.4
Joe Ingles 63.4
Norman Powell 63.2
Stephen Curry 62.7
Mikal Bridges 62.5
Joe Harris 62.4
Jimmy Butler 61.8
Matisse Thybulle 61.2
Zach LaVine 59.9
James Harden 59.9
Juan Toscano-Anderson 59.8
Wayne Ellington 59.7
Alec Burks 59.2
Desmond Bane 59.2
Royce O'Neale 59.2
Facundo Campazzo 59.1
Anfernee Simons 58.9
Torrey Craig 58.9
Jordan Poole 58.8
DeMar DeRozan 58.7
Trae Young 58.7
Alex Caruso 58.4
Chris Paul 58.4
Josh Hart 58.3
Gordon Hayward 58.0
Devin Vassell 57.9
Jalen Brunson 57.9
Malik Monk 57.8
Doug McDermott 57.4
George Hill
Luke Kennard 57.2
Malcolm Brogdon 57.2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 57.2
Lonzo Ball 57.2
Eric Gordon 57.1
Josh Richardson 57.1
Kevin Huerter 57.0
Jaylen Brown 57.0
Fred VanVleet 56.8
Darius Garland 56.7
Immanuel Quickley 56.5
Ja Morant 56.4
Devin Booker 56.3
Patrick Beverley 56.3
Terance Mann 56.3
Tyus Jones 56.3
Tyrese Maxey 56.1
Luguentz Dort 56.0
Kemba Walker 55.9
Miles Bridges 55.5
Will Barton 55.5
Tyler Herro 55.5
Gary Trent Jr. 55.4
Landry Shamet 55.3
Damion Lee 55.3
Dorian Finney-Smith 55.2
Kyle Lowry 55.1
Cole Anthony 55.0
Cory Joseph 54.8
Buddy Hield 54.6
Derrick Rose 54.6
Evan Fournier 54.5
Terry Rozier 54.5
Shake Milton 54.3
Luka Doncic 54.1
Scottie Barnes 54.1
Garrett Temple 54.1
Bones Hyland 54.0
Donovan Mitchell 53.9
Justin Holiday 53.8
LaMelo Ball 53.8
Dennis Schroder 53.8
T.J. McConnell 53.6
Khris Middleton 53.5
Anthony Edwards 53.5
Monte Morris 53.3
Spencer Dinwiddie 53.2
Frank Jackson 53.2
CJ McCollum 52.8

is that more than 15?
 
doesn't look like it:

Danny Green 65.5
Pat Connaughton 65.3
Seth Curry 64.7
Mike Conley 64.6
Otto Porter Jr. 64.5
Grayson Allen 63.6
Patty Mills 63.4
Joe Ingles 63.4
Norman Powell 63.2
Stephen Curry 62.7
Mikal Bridges 62.5
Joe Harris 62.4
Jimmy Butler 61.8
Matisse Thybulle 61.2
Zach LaVine 59.9
James Harden 59.9
Juan Toscano-Anderson 59.8
Wayne Ellington 59.7
Alec Burks 59.2
Desmond Bane 59.2
Royce O'Neale 59.2
Facundo Campazzo 59.1
Anfernee Simons 58.9
Torrey Craig 58.9
Jordan Poole 58.8
DeMar DeRozan 58.7
Trae Young 58.7
Alex Caruso 58.4
Chris Paul 58.4
Josh Hart 58.3
Gordon Hayward 58.0
Devin Vassell 57.9
Jalen Brunson 57.9
Malik Monk 57.8
Doug McDermott 57.4
George Hill
Luke Kennard 57.2
Malcolm Brogdon 57.2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 57.2
Lonzo Ball 57.2
Eric Gordon 57.1
Josh Richardson 57.1
Kevin Huerter 57.0
Jaylen Brown 57.0
Fred VanVleet 56.8
Darius Garland 56.7
Immanuel Quickley 56.5
Ja Morant 56.4
Devin Booker 56.3
Patrick Beverley 56.3
Terance Mann 56.3
Tyus Jones 56.3
Tyrese Maxey 56.1
Luguentz Dort 56.0
Kemba Walker 55.9
Miles Bridges 55.5
Will Barton 55.5
Tyler Herro 55.5
Gary Trent Jr. 55.4
Landry Shamet 55.3
Damion Lee 55.3
Dorian Finney-Smith 55.2
Kyle Lowry 55.1
Cole Anthony 55.0
Cory Joseph 54.8
Buddy Hield 54.6
Derrick Rose 54.6
Evan Fournier 54.5
Terry Rozier 54.5
Shake Milton 54.3
Luka Doncic 54.1
Scottie Barnes 54.1
Garrett Temple 54.1
Bones Hyland 54.0
Donovan Mitchell 53.9
Justin Holiday 53.8
LaMelo Ball 53.8
Dennis Schroder 53.8
T.J. McConnell 53.6
Khris Middleton 53.5
Anthony Edwards 53.5
Monte Morris 53.3
Spencer Dinwiddie 53.2
Frank Jackson 53.2
CJ McCollum 52.8

is that more than 15?
Games this year?
How about career?
 
doesn't look like it:

Danny Green 65.5
Pat Connaughton 65.3
Seth Curry 64.7
Mike Conley 64.6
Otto Porter Jr. 64.5
Grayson Allen 63.6
Patty Mills 63.4
Joe Ingles 63.4
Norman Powell 63.2
Stephen Curry 62.7
Mikal Bridges 62.5
Joe Harris 62.4
Jimmy Butler 61.8
Matisse Thybulle 61.2
Zach LaVine 59.9
James Harden 59.9
Juan Toscano-Anderson 59.8
Wayne Ellington 59.7
Alec Burks 59.2
Desmond Bane 59.2
Royce O'Neale 59.2
Facundo Campazzo 59.1
Anfernee Simons 58.9
Torrey Craig 58.9
Jordan Poole 58.8
DeMar DeRozan 58.7
Trae Young 58.7
Alex Caruso 58.4
Chris Paul 58.4
Josh Hart 58.3
Gordon Hayward 58.0
Devin Vassell 57.9
Jalen Brunson 57.9
Malik Monk 57.8
Doug McDermott 57.4
George Hill
Luke Kennard 57.2
Malcolm Brogdon 57.2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 57.2
Lonzo Ball 57.2
Eric Gordon 57.1
Josh Richardson 57.1
Kevin Huerter 57.0
Jaylen Brown 57.0
Fred VanVleet 56.8
Darius Garland 56.7
Immanuel Quickley 56.5
Ja Morant 56.4
Devin Booker 56.3
Patrick Beverley 56.3
Terance Mann 56.3
Tyus Jones 56.3
Tyrese Maxey 56.1
Luguentz Dort 56.0
Kemba Walker 55.9
Miles Bridges 55.5
Will Barton 55.5
Tyler Herro 55.5
Gary Trent Jr. 55.4
Landry Shamet 55.3
Damion Lee 55.3
Dorian Finney-Smith 55.2
Kyle Lowry 55.1
Cole Anthony 55.0
Cory Joseph 54.8
Buddy Hield 54.6
Derrick Rose 54.6
Evan Fournier 54.5
Terry Rozier 54.5
Shake Milton 54.3
Luka Doncic 54.1
Scottie Barnes 54.1
Garrett Temple 54.1
Bones Hyland 54.0
Donovan Mitchell 53.9
Justin Holiday 53.8
LaMelo Ball 53.8
Dennis Schroder 53.8
T.J. McConnell 53.6
Khris Middleton 53.5
Anthony Edwards 53.5
Monte Morris 53.3
Spencer Dinwiddie 53.2
Frank Jackson 53.2
CJ McCollum 52.8

is that more than 15?
thanks for providing.
 
How about career?

I could tell you that if BBREF had not put most of their data behind a pay wall

some guys, off the top of my head (names not marks):

Stephen Curry .626
Reggie Miller .614
James Harden .611
Dame .582
Ray Allen .580
Terry Porter .576
Klay Thompson .575
Devin Booker .571
Zach LaVine .571
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander .570
Bradley Beal .562
Wesley Matthews .560 (was much higher before he tore his Achilles)
Steve Smith .556
CJ .552
Gary Trent Jr. .547 (actually has a lower FT rate than CJ)
Demar DeRozan .546 (rarely shoots three's)

CJ's TS% is about average in the league. If you eliminate big men, he'd a little above average. If you could somehow adjust for assisted FG rate (which is arguably a bad adjustment) if would be even higher
 
It really seems like people on this board actually undervalue CJ, at least the loud minority do. Yes, he's overpaid. Yes, he has maddening deficiencies (hence "MeJ"). But he's still a pretty solid NBA player, even if he might be hard to find a good fit for. Anyway, I thought I'd take a look at a couple of fairly well-respected measures of NBA worth to see where he falls. Here's "Estimated Plus-Minus" (which came out first in the stat that GM's like):

Not sure who undervalues CJ. In fact, I've seen a lot of people comment on what a great shot creator and offensive talent CJ is. That said, the other part is, that he doesn't fit with Dame and that is where I think both things can be true. CJ on his own would be very valuable as a main ball handler to a team that needed a shot creator and a score. However, if they already had one....who is better than he is, that would diminish his value which is what has happened here. Put CJ as the lead guard opposite a bigger SG who can defend and I think he would have the best seasons of his career.

Sadly, that is not the case here, nor will it ever bee. That is the issue.
 
Glorified 6th man who makes way too much money to have that role in Portland. I’ve been saying this for years. CJ as a person and ambassador of Portland? Great!

CJ as a #2 guy when you aspire to win a title? Laughable
 
doesn't look like it:

Danny Green 65.5
Pat Connaughton 65.3
Seth Curry 64.7
Mike Conley 64.6
Otto Porter Jr. 64.5
Grayson Allen 63.6
Patty Mills 63.4
Joe Ingles 63.4
Norman Powell 63.2
Stephen Curry 62.7
Mikal Bridges 62.5
Joe Harris 62.4
Jimmy Butler 61.8
Matisse Thybulle 61.2
Zach LaVine 59.9
James Harden 59.9
Juan Toscano-Anderson 59.8
Wayne Ellington 59.7
Alec Burks 59.2
Desmond Bane 59.2
Royce O'Neale 59.2
Facundo Campazzo 59.1
Anfernee Simons 58.9
Torrey Craig 58.9
Jordan Poole 58.8
DeMar DeRozan 58.7
Trae Young 58.7
Alex Caruso 58.4
Chris Paul 58.4
Josh Hart 58.3
Gordon Hayward 58.0
Devin Vassell 57.9
Jalen Brunson 57.9
Malik Monk 57.8
Doug McDermott 57.4
George Hill
Luke Kennard 57.2
Malcolm Brogdon 57.2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 57.2
Lonzo Ball 57.2
Eric Gordon 57.1
Josh Richardson 57.1
Kevin Huerter 57.0
Jaylen Brown 57.0
Fred VanVleet 56.8
Darius Garland 56.7
Immanuel Quickley 56.5
Ja Morant 56.4
Devin Booker 56.3
Patrick Beverley 56.3
Terance Mann 56.3
Tyus Jones 56.3
Tyrese Maxey 56.1
Luguentz Dort 56.0
Kemba Walker 55.9
Miles Bridges 55.5
Will Barton 55.5
Tyler Herro 55.5
Gary Trent Jr. 55.4
Landry Shamet 55.3
Damion Lee 55.3
Dorian Finney-Smith 55.2
Kyle Lowry 55.1
Cole Anthony 55.0
Cory Joseph 54.8
Buddy Hield 54.6
Derrick Rose 54.6
Evan Fournier 54.5
Terry Rozier 54.5
Shake Milton 54.3
Luka Doncic 54.1
Scottie Barnes 54.1
Garrett Temple 54.1
Bones Hyland 54.0
Donovan Mitchell 53.9
Justin Holiday 53.8
LaMelo Ball 53.8
Dennis Schroder 53.8
T.J. McConnell 53.6
Khris Middleton 53.5
Anthony Edwards 53.5
Monte Morris 53.3
Spencer Dinwiddie 53.2
Frank Jackson 53.2
CJ McCollum 52.8

is that more than 15?

what stands out to me is that we have had four of the top ten on our team in recent years and let them go( other than Norm) in favor of the last person on this list.
Thats telling to me…
 
doesn't look like it:

Danny Green 65.5
Pat Connaughton 65.3
Seth Curry 64.7
Mike Conley 64.6
Otto Porter Jr. 64.5
Grayson Allen 63.6
Patty Mills 63.4
Joe Ingles 63.4
Norman Powell 63.2
Stephen Curry 62.7
Mikal Bridges 62.5
Joe Harris 62.4
Jimmy Butler 61.8
Matisse Thybulle 61.2
Zach LaVine 59.9
James Harden 59.9
Juan Toscano-Anderson 59.8
Wayne Ellington 59.7
Alec Burks 59.2
Desmond Bane 59.2
Royce O'Neale 59.2
Facundo Campazzo 59.1
Anfernee Simons 58.9
Torrey Craig 58.9
Jordan Poole 58.8
DeMar DeRozan 58.7
Trae Young 58.7
Alex Caruso 58.4
Chris Paul 58.4
Josh Hart 58.3
Gordon Hayward 58.0
Devin Vassell 57.9
Jalen Brunson 57.9
Malik Monk 57.8
Doug McDermott 57.4
George Hill
Luke Kennard 57.2
Malcolm Brogdon 57.2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 57.2
Lonzo Ball 57.2
Eric Gordon 57.1
Josh Richardson 57.1
Kevin Huerter 57.0
Jaylen Brown 57.0
Fred VanVleet 56.8
Darius Garland 56.7
Immanuel Quickley 56.5
Ja Morant 56.4
Devin Booker 56.3
Patrick Beverley 56.3
Terance Mann 56.3
Tyus Jones 56.3
Tyrese Maxey 56.1
Luguentz Dort 56.0
Kemba Walker 55.9
Miles Bridges 55.5
Will Barton 55.5
Tyler Herro 55.5
Gary Trent Jr. 55.4
Landry Shamet 55.3
Damion Lee 55.3
Dorian Finney-Smith 55.2
Kyle Lowry 55.1
Cole Anthony 55.0
Cory Joseph 54.8
Buddy Hield 54.6
Derrick Rose 54.6
Evan Fournier 54.5
Terry Rozier 54.5
Shake Milton 54.3
Luka Doncic 54.1
Scottie Barnes 54.1
Garrett Temple 54.1
Bones Hyland 54.0
Donovan Mitchell 53.9
Justin Holiday 53.8
LaMelo Ball 53.8
Dennis Schroder 53.8
T.J. McConnell 53.6
Khris Middleton 53.5
Anthony Edwards 53.5
Monte Morris 53.3
Spencer Dinwiddie 53.2
Frank Jackson 53.2
CJ McCollum 52.8

is that more than 15?
Your interpretation of "starting" "shooting" and "guards" is fairly elastic.
 
what stands out to me is that we have had four of the top ten on our team in recent years and let them go( other than Norm) in favor of the last person on this list.
Thats telling to me…
Perhaps it should tell you "it's easier for a scrub to have a good TS% than a high-usage starter"?
 
Your interpretation of "starting" "shooting" and "guards" is fairly elastic.

wings...guards...perimeter players...what difference does it make?

I guess if you just wanted to eliminate enough players that CJ doesn't look so bad compared to those that remain...you might gripe about a more conclusive list. CJ ranks 262 out of 444 in TS% by the way, so I eliminated 354 players from the comparison....about 80% of the league and still you complain
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top