OT Coronavirus: America in chaos, News and Updates. One million Americans dead and counting (3 Viewers)

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Hoopguru said:
This doctors advise seem's sound to me, but Im not a medical professional.

Directives from public health officials to stay home are an effective way of slowing the spread of COVID-19. However, unless we remain socially distanced until an effective vaccine is available, it is only delaying inevitable exposure. The real goal is “herd immunity”’ – sufficient numbers of people in our community immune to COVID-19.

What if we purposefully exposed young and healthy people to the virus? This could be followed by testing for antibodies against COVID-19 to prove immunity. Immune individuals could then be released back into the community since they could no longer spread the illness. This exposure could be done in stages, and at numbers that would not overwhelm our medical system.

Before the varicella vaccine was available, parents would purposefully expose their kids to other kids with chicken pox. After a miserable week of fevers and an itchy outbreak, the child was over the illness and immune from re-infection.

To me, it makes sense to have a set number of young and healthy people purposefully exposed each week (on a voluntary basis). Exposure would be followed by 14 days of quarantine and antibody testing. Such a program could first be tested on those who are lowest risk – healthy, fit people from 20 to 30 years old, followed by people from 30 to 40, and so on. With this approach, we could be building immunity in our community in tandem with slowing the spread. It would also provide a way to more quickly get back to normal life.

Russ Riggs, M.D., Beaverton
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the CFR (case fatality rate) for people 19 and under is 0.18% or 1/549)

upload_2020-4-17_10-8-36.png

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

if 30 million Americans 19 and under are 'infected' with covid, the CFR would mean 54,000 die.

There are also growing questions about immunity. A European study found that 15-20% of cleared case left people with insufficient levels of anti-bodies to prevent re-infection. And 114 patients in South Korea who were cleared for the virus came down with it again. At this point, it's unclear if it was becaause of re-activation or re-infection. Either way, it's bad news, and it's also not known if those 114 people were still infectious after being cleared

in other words, we simply don't know enough about this virus and covid yet to set smart policy. We've only been under social distancing guidelines for a month and far too many people, IMO, are acting like it's been a year, and are wanting to end policies that are definitely working because they are frustrated
 
Orion Bailey said:
You could be right and I hope you are, but when all you have to go on is what you read, what else is there?
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I look at it this way: I have a hard time not saying stupid things when I'm calm and thoughtful. In the heat of some dumb political argument it's impossible not to say stupid things

so I tend to excuse dumb things said in the heat of the moment by others. Glass house - pot-kettle - etc.

I've been trying really hard to not get drawn into these 'interminable-drawn-out-you-dumb-me-smart-back-and-forths' that seem to take over about a half-dozen consecutive pages of threads every day. It's exhausting. I'm trying to put the other shoes on and reach some common ground with people I obviously don't agree with politically. And not dive down the rabbit holes

I don't hide I'm a liberal or that I detest trump. But I don't want to weaponize that in every post. There's no profit in it
 
wizenheimer said:
I look at it this way: I have a hard time not saying stupid things when I'm calm and thoughtful. In the heat of some dumb political argument it's impossible not to say stupid things

so I tend to excuse dumb things said in the heat of the moment by others. Glass house - pot-kettle - etc.

I've been trying really hard to not get drawn into these 'interminable-drawn-out-you-dumb-me-smart-back-and-forths' that seem to take over about a half-dozen consecutive pages of threads every day. It's exhausting. I'm trying to put the other shoes on and reach some common ground with people I obviously don't agree with politically. And not dive down the rabbit holes

I don't hide I'm a liberal or that I detest trump. But I don't want to weaponize that in every post. There's no profit in it
Click to expand...

Great post. We could all be a bit more like this. I'm trying to follow suit. :)

We all have strong opinions and can be easy to get frustrated with others who don't share or understand those opinions. Its when we start lashing out at each other because of it is when threads derail.

Not agreeing on things is a good thing in my opinion. It helps us all be more aware and understand the opposing viewpoints, which, with an open mind, helps you better understand your own viewpoint. I have always taken responsibility and understand one of my shortcomings is the inability to take the high road. I do believe I rarely try to start things, but I also have a hard time walking away once i've encountered a button pusher. I must be better at that. I will be better at that.
 
BigGameDamian said:
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that's so stupid. The state of Oregon can't compel Abbot Labs to produce more test kits or Johnson & Johnson to produce more swabs. The feds can under the defense procurement act but trump is refusing to do it

it's clear as day that trump is trying to find and create scapegoats, other than himself of course, for this crisis. How convenient for his addled mind to be able to blame states for testing failures.
 
wizenheimer said:
that's so stupid. The state of Oregon can't compel Abbot Labs to produce more test kits or Johnson & Johnson to produce more swabs. The feds can under the defense procurement act but trump is refusing to do it

it's clear as day that trump is trying to find and create scapegoats, other than himself of course, for this crisis. How convenient for his addled mind to be able to blame states for testing failures.
Click to expand...

When the pressure is on, trump lends to distance himself and push the burden on to others just like he is doing here with the states now. A true president would be the leader and not continually deflect.
 
wizenheimer said:
that's so stupid. The state of Oregon can't compel Abbot Labs to produce more test kits or Johnson & Johnson to produce more swabs. The feds can under the defense procurement act but trump is refusing to do it

it's clear as day that trump is trying to find and create scapegoats, other than himself of course, for this crisis. How convenient for his addled mind to be able to blame states for testing failures.
Click to expand...
I’ll admit, this is a stupid tweet. Yeah, technically the states should be testing, but no state or federal governments was really prepared for this pandemic.
 
wizenheimer said:
the CFR (case fatality rate) for people 19 and under is 0.18% or 1/549)

View attachment 30851

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

if 30 million Americans 19 and under are 'infected' with covid, the CFR would mean 54,000 die.

There are also growing questions about immunity. A European study found that 15-20% of cleared case left people with insufficient levels of anti-bodies to prevent re-infection. And 114 patients in South Korea who were cleared for the virus came down with it again. At this point, it's unclear if it was becaause of re-activation or re-infection. Either way, it's bad news, and it's also not known if those 114 people were still infectious after being cleared

in other words, we simply don't know enough about this virus and covid yet to set smart policy. We've only been under social distancing guidelines for a month and far too many people, IMO, are acting like it's been a year, and are wanting to end policies that are definitely working because they are frustrated
Click to expand...

I was thinking more of a controlled opening for Oregon.

County Positive† Deaths* Negative
Baker 0 0 34
Benton 27 4 582
Clackamas 150 3 3037
Clatsop 6 0 305
Columbia 14 0 406
Coos 1 0 361
Crook 1 0 122
Curry 3 0 101
Deschutes 59 0 1185
Douglas 22 0 580
Gilliam 0 0 16
Grant 1 0 38
Harney 0 0 44
Hood River 4 0 329
Jackson 47 0 3188
Jefferson 1 0 116
Josephine 19 1 735
Klamath 29 0 981
Lake 0 0 50
Lane 45 1 1675
Lincoln 4 0 289
Linn 54 4 1217
Malheur 5 0 163
Marion 309 11 2666
Morrow 5 0 47
Multnomah 448 26 7693
Polk 30 1 533
Sherman 1 0 16
Tillamook 5 0 169
Umatilla 22 0 421
Union 4 0 88
Wallowa 1 0 21
Wasco 10 0 359
Washington 376 7 4767
Wheeler 0 0 6
Yamhill 33 6 862
Total 1736 64 33202
Age group Cases Percent Ever hospitalized‡ Deaths*
0 to 19 40 2% 3 0
20 to 29 192 11% 18 0
30 to 39 267 15% 22 0
40 to 49 322 19% 56 1
50 to 59 310 18% 60 2
60 to 69 305 18% 118 11
70 to 79 186 11% 83 18
80 and over 114 7% 54 32
Not available 0 0% - 0
Total 1736 100% 414 64

Oregon to date has had zero deaths under 40 and over half the deaths in Oregon are from the assisted living center.
Just seems are numbers look decent enough that we could in a very controlled fashion be more proactive rather than just saying well another month or two would be best?
 
Hoopguru said:
I was thinking more of a controlled opening for Oregon.

County Positive† Deaths* Negative
Baker 0 0 34
Benton 27 4 582
Clackamas 150 3 3037
Clatsop 6 0 305
Columbia 14 0 406
Coos 1 0 361
Crook 1 0 122
Curry 3 0 101
Deschutes 59 0 1185
Douglas 22 0 580
Gilliam 0 0 16
Grant 1 0 38
Harney 0 0 44
Hood River 4 0 329
Jackson 47 0 3188
Jefferson 1 0 116
Josephine 19 1 735
Klamath 29 0 981
Lake 0 0 50
Lane 45 1 1675
Lincoln 4 0 289
Linn 54 4 1217
Malheur 5 0 163
Marion 309 11 2666
Morrow 5 0 47
Multnomah 448 26 7693
Polk 30 1 533
Sherman 1 0 16
Tillamook 5 0 169
Umatilla 22 0 421
Union 4 0 88
Wallowa 1 0 21
Wasco 10 0 359
Washington 376 7 4767
Wheeler 0 0 6
Yamhill 33 6 862
Total 1736 64 33202
Age group Cases Percent Ever hospitalized‡ Deaths*
0 to 19 40 2% 3 0
20 to 29 192 11% 18 0
30 to 39 267 15% 22 0
40 to 49 322 19% 56 1
50 to 59 310 18% 60 2
60 to 69 305 18% 118 11
70 to 79 186 11% 83 18
80 and over 114 7% 54 32
Not available 0 0% - 0
Total 1736 100% 414 64

Oregon to date has had zero deaths under 40 and over half the deaths in Oregon are from the assisted living center.
Just seems are numbers look decent enough that we could in a very controlled fashion be more proactive rather than just saying well another month or two would be best?
Click to expand...

I think this is why Trump is hesitant to enact anything? Each state is better able to asses their current situation and proceed accordingly, rather than a federal mandate sweeping all states.
 
One think about New Yorkers, there not hesitant to hit back or get in your face.
Trumps text were ridiculous.
 
Hoopguru said:
I was thinking more of a controlled opening for Oregon.

County Positive† Deaths* Negative
Baker 0 0 34
Benton 27 4 582
Clackamas 150 3 3037
Clatsop 6 0 305
Columbia 14 0 406
Coos 1 0 361
Crook 1 0 122
Curry 3 0 101
Deschutes 59 0 1185
Douglas 22 0 580
Gilliam 0 0 16
Grant 1 0 38
Harney 0 0 44
Hood River 4 0 329
Jackson 47 0 3188
Jefferson 1 0 116
Josephine 19 1 735
Klamath 29 0 981
Lake 0 0 50
Lane 45 1 1675
Lincoln 4 0 289
Linn 54 4 1217
Malheur 5 0 163
Marion 309 11 2666
Morrow 5 0 47
Multnomah 448 26 7693
Polk 30 1 533
Sherman 1 0 16
Tillamook 5 0 169
Umatilla 22 0 421
Union 4 0 88
Wallowa 1 0 21
Wasco 10 0 359
Washington 376 7 4767
Wheeler 0 0 6
Yamhill 33 6 862
Total 1736 64 33202
Age group Cases Percent Ever hospitalized‡ Deaths*
0 to 19 40 2% 3 0
20 to 29 192 11% 18 0
30 to 39 267 15% 22 0
40 to 49 322 19% 56 1
50 to 59 310 18% 60 2
60 to 69 305 18% 118 11
70 to 79 186 11% 83 18
80 and over 114 7% 54 32
Not available 0 0% - 0
Total 1736 100% 414 64

Oregon to date has had zero deaths under 40 and over half the deaths in Oregon are from the assisted living center.
Just seems are numbers look decent enough that we could in a very controlled fashion be more proactive rather than just saying well another month or two would be best?
Click to expand...

3 deaths under 60. Of course, that way to many for sure!
 
Antibody research indicates coronavirus may be far more widespread than known
Of 3,300 people in California county up to 4% found to have been infected.

A critical question in the path towards the future is how many people actually have protective novel coronavirus antibodies and possible immunity? Two research teams in California -- backed by armies of dedicated volunteers -- set out to answer this very question and the first set of results are in.

The first large-scale community test of 3,300 people in Santa Clara County found that 2.5 to 4.2% of those tested were positive for antibodies -- a number suggesting a far higher past infection rate than the official count.

Based on the initial data, researchers estimate that the range of people who may have had the virus to be between 48,000 and 81,000 in the county of 2 million -- as opposed to the approximately 1,000 in the county's official tally at the time the samples were taken.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/antib...ead/story?id=70206121&cid=social_twitter_abcn
 
magnifier661 said:
I’ll admit, this is a stupid tweet. Yeah, technically the states should be testing, but no state or federal governments was really prepared for this pandemic.
Click to expand...

And as we've discussed before, there's reason for that. :bgrin:
 
Orion Bailey said:
This cant last or there will be riots. With riots will come civil unrest which will evolve into civil war.
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I think you are being a little bit overdramatic. We've had plenty of riots in this country that haven't led to civil war.

barfo
 
CupWizier said:
It appears the states that have refused to do a shut down are ones who have received a higher share of the money. Wonder why that is?
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I think the states maybe refused shut downs because by this info, they make the lowest wages and so would be hit the hardest if they did shut down. Combine that with the lack of dense population in those states and its a rational decision to not shut down or not as quickly.

What is striking to me is the payroll disparity of the midwest versus the coasts.

To me its obvious they need the most help.
 
barfo said:
I think you are being a little bit overdramatic. We've had plenty of riots in this country that haven't led to civil war.

barfo
Click to expand...

Sure. Isolated and controlled in one region overall without a lockdown and a jump in unemployment with a rash of people potentially not able to feed thier children or themselves.

But obviously that's worst case scenario.

As I read someone else post... poverty will change a person into something they typically don't want to be. go a few meals with out eating and not knowing when you might be able to eat again and see how that sits.
 
Orion Bailey said:
Socially distanced activities such as walking and biking will be permitted - but sunbathing has been banned


I find this funny.

So in walking and biking on paths there is a large chance of coming closer than 6' of others. However with Sunbathing, you are in a fixed spot that you can choose the distance. But lets ban sitting in place in favor of moving around and possibly passing by infecteds....


Got it. Florida...
@theprunetang

How do you feel about this? Just curious.
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I personally think the stay at home orders need to be kept in place. I get what this is about though. There are a lot of wide open spaces for running and other outdoor activities. You can choose somewhere lightly trafficked. But, people flock to the same popular beaches for sunbathing and all that kind of shit. You get 3000 people on a beach (and that is what would happen) and I guarantee you won't be able to keep distance from people.
 
wizenheimer said:
there was talk a few days ago here about the possibility that California had a rash of covid infections in December that built some herd immunity. An epidemiologist has attempted to debunk the rumor:

View attachment 30846

View attachment 30847

View attachment 30849
View attachment 30850



you can follow that link to enlargements of the graphs he uses.

IMO, some of the reason for the chatter about previous herd immunity in the left coast states was to find an explanation other than the measures the states took and the willingness of the citizens in these liberal states to cooperate with state government recommendations
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There were a couple posters in here a week or so that claimed they thought they had covid-19 in November/ December and i recall both my wife and i had a head cold upper respitory issues for over a week. Nothing real serious but enough to make you feel incomfortable. I know several other people reported similar symptoms but no way do i think it was even remotely attributed to Covid. It was just a typical fall/ winter cold.
 
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These numbers have to be encouraging for our State.

page4image320

barfo said:
Neither is he, apparently.

barfo
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He identifies as an MD like all the others that are all over the place with this virus.

So the Gov/Mayor of Washington State are wrong for opening up parks under control criteria. I assume they are leaning on advise from qualifies MD's, whatever that is?
 
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