Science Covid Vs. the Flu....apples to oranges?

wizenheimer · May 17, 2020

first off, I apologize if the mods think this should be in the Corona thread

but since the Covid vs flu comparison has become such a flash point, and is being heavily used by trump and the open america crowd, I thought this article was rather foundational, and it educated me on just how those seasonal flu numbers come to be

I also think as trump & the R's begin their campaign of disputing the Covid mortality numbers we should keep in mind that if the same 'standards' they want to use are applied to flu mortality, those flu numbers would be as little as 1/10th of what they are each year

https://blogs.scientificamerican.co...u-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

magnifier661 · May 17, 2020

I think the mortality rate of Covid-19 is actually lower than the flu, but it’s infectious rate is vastly higher. That means COVID-19 is actually much deadlier to a population because the sheer numbers of infected cause more death.

julius · May 17, 2020

magnifier661 said:
I think the mortality rate of Covid-19 is actually lower than the flu, but it’s infectious rate is vastly higher. That means COVID-19 is actually much deadlier to a population because the sheer numbers of infected cause more death.

If that's what you think, I hate to break it to you, but you'd be wrong about that. In fact, you'd be waaaaaaaay off.

I know people love to point out the # of deaths from the flu, but they fail to point out the # of people who got the flu and then talk about the # of people who died from it.

So far, the # of people who have caught Covid19 is about 1.5 million, and 85K deaths.

The yearly average # of people who get the flu is significantly higher than the reported # of people who have caught Covid 19, and even then their #'s are significantly lower.

"(During the current flu season, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that there have been 39 million to 56 million flu illnesses and 24,000 to 62,000 flu deaths in the U.S., although that number is an estimate based on hospitalizations with flu symptoms, not based on actually counting up every person who has died of flu.)

The new coronavirus disease, COVID-19, has caused more than 1.4 million illnesses and 85,000 deaths in the U.S. as of May 14, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
...
Both COVID-19 and the flu are respiratory illnesses. But COVID-19 is not the flu. Research so far indicates that COVID-19 spreads more easily and has a higher death rate than the flu."
(source: https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html)

No matter how you mix up the #'s, the death rate for Covid19 is significantly higher than the Flu.

So, not only are you wrong about what you "think", you're like wrong to a magnitude that is actually difficult to explain in terms that are't laughable.

Chris Craig · May 17, 2020

The flu death rates are over a whole season. The majority of the Covid-19 deaths happened within a months time.

magnifier661 · May 17, 2020

julius said:
If that's what you think, I hate to break it to you, but you'd be wrong about that. In fact, you'd be waaaaaaaay off.

The # of people who get the flu is significantly higher than the reported # of people who have caught Covid 19.

"(During the current flu season, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that there have been 39 million to 56 million flu illnesses and 24,000 to 62,000 flu deaths in the U.S., although that number is an estimate based on hospitalizations with flu symptoms, not based on actually counting up every person who has died of flu.)

The new coronavirus disease, COVID-19, has caused more than 1.4 million illnesses and 85,000 deaths in the U.S. as of May 14, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
...
Both COVID-19 and the flu are respiratory illnesses. But COVID-19 is not the flu. Research so far indicates that COVID-19 spreads more easily and has a higher death rate than the flu."
(source: https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html)

No matter how you mix up the #'s, the death rate for Covid19 is significantly higher than the Flu.

So, not only are you wrong about what you "think", you're like wrong to a magnitude that is actually difficult to explain in terms that are't laughable.

None of those factor the antibodies tests from USC, Standford, New York and Florida, where it’s estimated that 50-85x more infections.

magnifier661 · May 17, 2020

Chris Craig said:
The flu death rates are over a whole season. The majority of the Covid-19 deaths happened within a months time.

I agree, which helps validate low mortality % = High infection rate.

julius · May 17, 2020

magnifier661 said:
None of those factor the antibodies tests from USC, Standford, New York and Florida, where it’s estimated that 50-85x more infections.

Which relates to anything you said, how exactly?

julius · May 17, 2020

magnifier661 said:
I agree, which helps validate low mortality % = High infection rate.

No it doesn't! Do you understand how math works?!

1.5 million people and 85K deaths is a significantly higher death rate than 39-56 million and 24-62K deaths.

magnifier661 · May 17, 2020

julius said:
No it doesn't! Do you understand how math works?!

1.5 million people and 85K deaths is a significantly higher death rate than 39-56 million and 24-62K deaths.

50-85 x 1.5 million is well over

julius · May 17, 2020

magnifier661 said:
I agree, which helps validate low mortality % = High infection rate.

The FLU has a low mortality rate and high infection rate. Covid 19 has a significantly higher mortality rate and a higher infection rate.

Chris Craig · May 17, 2020

magnifier661 said:
I agree, which helps validate low mortality % = High infection rate.

CupWizier · May 17, 2020

julius said:
No it doesn't! Do you understand how math works?!

1.5 million people and 85K deaths is a significantly higher death rate than 39-56 million and 24-62K deaths.

That's just it, we are only 2 months into this crap and during the season where the flu is negligible. It scares the crap out of me what it might be like come winter time when the flu makes it rounds and we don't have covid 19 under control yet.

magnifier661 · May 17, 2020

julius said:
The FLU has a low mortality rate and high infection rate. Covid 19 has a significantly higher mortality rate and a higher infection rate.

Except the antibodies testing says otherwise. Amazingly, all different areas: USC, Stanford, NY, and Florida test results the same.

julius · May 17, 2020

magnifier661 said:
50-85 x 1.5 million is well over

You don't seem to know how to figure this out.

If there are 1.5 million known cases and 85K deaths, vs 39 million and 59K deaths, which one has a higher death rate?

The one where 39 MILLION people get infected and 59K die, or the one where 1.5 MILLION people get infected and 85K die?

It's pretty simple math there.

One is .0015% and the other is .056

I'll let you figure out which one is bigger.

magnifier661 · May 17, 2020

julius said:
You don't seem to know how to figure this out.

If there are 1.5 million known cases and 85K deaths, vs 39 million and 59K deaths, which one has a higher death rate?

The one where 39 MILLION people get infected and 59K die, or the one where 1.5 MILLION people get infected and 85K die?

It's pretty simple math there.

One is .0015% and the other is .056

I'll let you figure out which one is bigger.

You keep losing track of the USC, Standford, NY and Florida antibodies test studies stating infection rates are 50-85x higher than what’s reported.

julius · May 17, 2020

magnifier661 said:
Except the antibodies testing says otherwise. Amazingly, all different areas: USC, Stanford, NY, and Florida test results the same.

You're doing a good job of showing you don't actually know what you're arguing here. None of that matters when it comes to death rate. It's how many people died vs how many people got infected. It's simple.

"the ratio of deaths to the population of a particular area or during a particular period of time, usually calculated as the number of deaths per one thousand people per year."

No where does it matter about antibodies testing. It's the death rate.

magnifier661 · May 17, 2020

julius said:
You're doing a good job of showing you don't actually know what you're arguing here. None of that matters when it comes to death rate. It's how many people died vs how many people got infected. It's simple.

"the ratio of deaths to the population of a particular area or during a particular period of time, usually calculated as the number of deaths per one thousand people per year."

No where does it matter about antibodies testing. It's the death rate.

Would you like the links to all the studies? I have them.

julius · May 17, 2020

magnifier661 said:
You keep losing track of the USC, Standford, NY and Florida antibodies test studies stating infection rates are 50-85x higher than what’s reported.

That has nothing to do with death rate. 1.5 million known cases and 85K deaths.

You can make up all the shit you want, but that doesn't change things.

You have the right to your own opinions, you just don't have the right to your own facts.

Chris Craig · May 17, 2020

magnifier661 said:
50-85 x 1.5 million is well over

What?

62,000 deaths out of 56 million infected by the flu is 0.001%

85,000 deaths out of 1.5 million infected by Cotonavirus is 0.056%

Not even close

julius · May 17, 2020

magnifier661 said:
Would you like the links to all the studies? I have them.

Linking them won't all the sudden make them matter.

julius · May 17, 2020

Mags, just say this phrase and let it go.

"I was mistaken. "

julius · May 17, 2020

Chris Craig said:
What?

62,000 deaths out of 56 million infected by the flu is 0.001%

85,000 deaths out of 1.5 million infected by Cotonavirus is 0.56%

Not even close

It should be .056% not .56%.

calvin natt · May 17, 2020

What’s going to be really annoying is when people say “see it’s not THAT bad, we only have X00,000 deaths”, and forget that we went into massive lockdown and that is the only reason it isn’t worse. They say “that was overblown”, when in reality we don’t go into quarantine with the reg flu.

wizenheimer · May 17, 2020

julius said:
If that's what you think, I hate to break it to you, but you'd be wrong about that. In fact, you'd be waaaaaaaay off.

I know people love to point out the # of deaths from the flu, but they fail to point out the # of people who got the flu and then talk about the # of people who died from it.

So far, the # of people who have caught Covid19 is about 1.5 million, and 85K deaths.

The yearly average # of people who get the flu is significantly higher than the reported # of people who have caught Covid 19, and even then their #'s are significantly lower.

"(During the current flu season, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that there have been 39 million to 56 million flu illnesses and 24,000 to 62,000 flu deaths in the U.S., although that number is an estimate based on hospitalizations with flu symptoms, not based on actually counting up every person who has died of flu.)

The new coronavirus disease, COVID-19, has caused more than 1.4 million illnesses and 85,000 deaths in the U.S. as of May 14, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
...
Both COVID-19 and the flu are respiratory illnesses. But COVID-19 is not the flu. Research so far indicates that COVID-19 spreads more easily and has a higher death rate than the flu."
(source: https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html)

No matter how you mix up the #'s, the death rate for Covid19 is significantly higher than the Flu.

So, not only are you wrong about what you "think", you're like wrong to a magnitude that is actually difficult to explain in terms that are't laughable.

I definitely think he's wrong about his assumption on mortality. Some people have latched onto a couple of fairly discredited studies that haven't been peer-reviewed that asserted the infection rate was 50-90 times higher that the number of positive cases. Those number just don't withstand any scrutiny...at all

now, go with the assumption that Covid mortality is less than the flu. With 90,000 dead from Covid and the flu having a mortality rate of 0.1%, that would mean that over 90 million Americans have/had Covid. That's higher than 1 in 4...and that's ridiculous

but more than that is what the article I posted in the OP made clear is that if Covid was 'calculated' with similar algorithms and co-efficiency as the CDC uses for flu, that 90,000 number would likely be in the 150,000-200,000 level right now, if not a little higher. And that would mean that half of America has already had Covid...yeah, magical thinking

now, I'd certainly say the infection rate is much higher than the current official count. Maybe 10 times higher seems about right? That would put current Covid mortality at 0.6%, which is probably closer to the real number. The only hitch to that I see is that when we had tested 3 million people we had a mortality rate of 5.2%. We've now tested 12 million and the mortality rate is 5.96%. It should be going the other direction if the actual mortality rate is less than 1%

julius · May 17, 2020

@wizenheimer just said what i tried to say, but much smarter sounding. So I deleted this post.

Chris Craig · May 17, 2020

julius said:
You're doing a good job of showing you don't actually know what you're arguing here. None of that matters when it comes to death rate. It's how many people died vs how many people got infected. It's simple.

"the ratio of deaths to the population of a particular area or during a particular period of time, usually calculated as the number of deaths per one thousand people per year."

No where does it matter about antibodies testing. It's the death rate.

He is arguing the death rate of Covid-19 is actually lower because the number of infected is higher than actually reported. Granted, so are the numbers of deaths. Thd death rate of Covid-19 will still be higher than the flu

julius · May 17, 2020

wizenheimer said:
I definitely think he's wrong about his assumption on mortality. Some people have latched onto a couple of fairly discredited studies that haven't been peer-reviewed that asserted the infection rate was 50-90 times higher that the number of positive cases. Those number just don't withstand any scrutiny...at all

now, go with the assumption that Covid mortality is less than the flu. With 90,000 dead from Covid and the flu having a mortality rate of 0.1%, that would mean that over 90 million Americans have/had Covid. That's higher than 1 in 4...and that's ridiculous

but more than that is what the article I posted in the OP made clear is that if Covid was 'calculated' with similar algorithms and co-efficiency as the CDC uses for flu, that 90,000 number would likely be in the 150,000-200,000 level right now, if not a little higher. And that would mean that half of America has already had Covid...yeah, magical thinking

now, I'd certainly say the infection rate is much higher than the current official count. Maybe 10 times higher seems about right. That would put current Covid mortality at 0.6%, which is probably closer to the real number. The only hitch to that I see is that when we had tested 3 million people we had a mortality rate of 5.2%. We've now tested 12 million and the mortality rate is 5.96%. It should be going the other direction if the actual mortality rate is less than 1%

but antibodies!

Chris Craig · May 17, 2020

julius said:
It should be .056% not .56%.

That's what I meant

julius · May 17, 2020

Chris Craig said:
He is arguing the death rate of Covid-19 is actually lower because the number of infected is higher than actually reported. Granted, so are the numbers of deaths. Thd death rate of Covid-19 will still be higher than the flu

Oh, I know what he's arguing. It's tin foil hat wearing conspiracy "once people figure it out I'll stop talking about it and act like I never said anything about it" shit.

because as wizen said, for the death rate to be higher, based on the death totals, the # of people infected in our country alone would be almost a quarter of the country. And if that was the case, based on how it impacts elderly/sick as bad as it does, we'd either be incredibly lucky that we aren't seeing the elderly die at an alarming rate OR their argument is not based on facts and reality.

Chris Craig · May 17, 2020

julius said:
Oh, I know what he's arguing. It's tin foil hat wearing conspiracy "once people figure it out I'll stop talking about it and act like I never said anything about it" shit.

because as wizen said, for the death rate to be higher, based on the death totals, the # of people infected in our country alone would be almost a quarter of the country. And if that was the case, based on how it impacts elderly/sick as bad as it does, we'd either be incredibly lucky that we aren't seeing the elderly die at an alarming rate OR their argument is not based on facts and reality.

Agreed. I'll concede there is a number of unreported covid cases, but the numbers in those studies are far overinflated

Science Covid Vs. the Flu....apples to oranges?

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