It probably does a little but wouldn't it be nice if our chances were helped by improved play and not season ending injuries to rival's players.
For those who are new here, or who may have missed it, last March and April, I ran a Blazers Playoff Odds thread with daily updates. It's still January and too early for that level of detail on a daily basis, but here are the links to the three sites I used: ESPN's BPI Playoff Odds - Currently 83.2% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 44-38, 7th seed. FiveThirtyEight's 2017-18 NBA Predictions - Currently 77% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 44-38, 7th seed. Basketball-Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report - Currently 85.3% chance of making the playoffs, projected record 43.9-38.1, 7th seed. Keep in mind these forward-looking projections are based on performance to date and do not include the impact of recent injuries, future trades, etc. Things can, and will change, often significantly. I started that thread on Mar 5, 2017, with just 21 regular season games remaining. At that time, the consensus odds were the Blazer had a 24.1% chance of making the playoffs and their projected record was 36-46. BNM
With Cousins and Roberson injured, I'd peg the Blazers' chances 'round 'bout 100%. I don't think it's certain that the Blazers catch the Thunder, but the chance that they do more than drowns out the small chance that the Pelicans remain in the race.
Warriors won 2 titles because of injuries to rivals' players (Love, Kyrie in 2015, Kawhi in 2017). You take what you can get.
Yes.....and if we get ANYWHERE near the Finals, I'll take that. But we aren't. We are at #7 with the possibility of moving up a couple of spots due to injuries players on teams just ahead of us....who also aren't contenders.
I really appreciated those treads. Mainly because it meant we had a shot at the playoffs. You never know when that underdog is gonna get his day. Semi-related note; I remember the seeding rules got updated a couple years ago in regards to division leaders. Has there been any similarly important changes in the off-season to this year playoffs? I have a hard time following all the NBA rule changes.
I think that Blazers will finish between 4-6 seed, even in case of some good run have a good chance to attack 3rd also. The rivals are affected with injuries and will probably have some unexpected defeats. I am sure that PTB will be above: Pelicans, Nuggets, Clipers. The Rockets and Wariors are untouchable and there will be fight with Wolves, Thunder and Spurs for the position. If i can choose, i would like to see Portland on third seed with Minesota on 6th. But more realistic wish then will be Ptb and Minesota on 4-5 seeds. Even Minesota are a great, great team i will rather to play them in playoff 1st round then both Spurs or Thunder. Good luck and greetings from Bosnia to all of you
Blazers currently 4.5 games out of 3rd place. That is where they should try to make their run. Doubtful they can climb that high but that would get them HCA and avoid the Warriors in the 2nd round. 33 games to go. The Spurs have played three more games and only have 30 games left. If they continue at their .635 winning percentage, they will finish with 52 wins. Portland would need to go 25-8 to catch them and then somehow get the tie-breaker. Even though they are only 4.5 games back, that type of run is highly unrealistic but that is where they need to be to make the season worth something. Still not a contender but at least a viable playoff team.
Let's pretend Portland wins every home game the rest of the way with the exception of the three against GSW/HOU . That would be 14-3 at home. That would then require going 11-5 on the road the rest of the way to hit that 25-8 mark. Best I can figure, that would mean wins at LAC, DET, SAC, UTA, PHX, LAL, LAC, NOP, MEM, DAL, SAS (so as to win that necessary tie-breaker) with losses at TOR, BOS, OKC, HOU, & DEN. Agreed.
Well postulated. That seems at least a little more doable when you outline it like that but from a shear numbers standpoint, we agree it is will highly unlikely.
Last year, POR went 7-6 over they last 23 games. And that was with Nurk fever and an easy schedule. On March 1, POR was 11 games under .500, tied with DAL for the 11th seed and 2.5 games behind DEN for the 8th seed. The Blazers ended up finishing in 8th, 1 game ahead of DEN. So, they basically closed out the season 17-6 and made up 3.5 games on DEN. Not saying going 25-8 and making up 4.5 games on SAS is impossible, but the odds are slim. We'd have to finish the season even better than we did last year, with a tougher schedule. And, we're chasing the Spurs, not the Nuggets. BNM
