Trade Idea How We can Fix this Team, both Short Term and Long Term, by the Trade Deadline

Executive Summary:
Trade anyone on the roster, except Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, and that includes two of the three 1st round draft picks (top 10 protected) we have in 2017 and 2018, in order to obtain Nerlens Noel, Serge Ibaka and Andrew Bogut.

The Disclaimers:
1) I do not believe in tanking. I don't believe is losing for the sake of losing. I believe you always play to win. Losing breeds bad habits and instills a culture that rewards failure. I also don't think it's an effective strategy to build a winning team. Yes, there are exceptions, two of note (LeBron and Duncan), but by and large, teams that lose, continue to lose for many years and never experience long term success.

MIN has been in the lottery 13 years in a row. For all the young talent they have, they are headed back to the lottery for the 14th year in a row. PHI has been the worst team in the league for quite a while and had several high lottery picks, both their own and those acquired via trade, yet they still have the worst record in the league. The Clippers, until they lucked into Chris Paul via trade, were the poster children for why being in the lottery does not equate to success on the court.

There is no LeBron and there is no Duncan in this draft. And, even if there were, even if we went 0-49 over the remainder of our schedule, there is no guarantee we'd land the top pick.

2) As bad as they are defensively, and as supposedly redundant as they are, I am not ready to break up Dame and C.J. They are both 20+ ppg scorers capable of creating their own shot. Their defense is a burden, but their scoring is elite. If you trade one, you may improve your defense, but you will hurt your offense.

Given our inability to attract top free agents, we really aren't in a position to trade away one of the two guys in our line up that is above average offensively.

The Deep Dive:
This thread is actually the culmination of several things I've been posting since the very beginning of the season. It addresses our most glaring needs while holding onto our greatest strengths. The players we receive fit well together and mesh well with our remaining talent.

Nerlens Noel:
I've been posting since the first week of the season that we need to obtain Nerlens Noel from PHI. To them he is redundant. To us, he's an elite defensive talent that is only 22-years old. I've probably posted it a dozen times, but for those who haven't been paying attention:

Nerlens Noel, as a 20-year old rookie and a 21-year old forced to play out of position, is the ONLY player in the entire league to record at least 100 STLs and 100 BLKs in both of the last two seasons. As a rookie, he was 4th in the league in DBPM and last year, playing out of position, he was 8th. That is elite level defense and a very young age while playing for a crappy team.

And, it's not just about the numbers. Noel is a unique physical specimen that combines length with lateral quickness that lets him cover ground, both vertically and laterally, at an amazing rate. This makes him an elite level rim protector and also great at defending the pick and roll - a HUGE weakness for us as long as we have Dame and C.J. as our starting back court.

He's a decent rebounder and an efficient, if limited, scorer. Best of all, he's only 22. It's clear we aren't winning anything immediately, and if we don't do something soon, we will waste both Lillard's and McCollum's prime. The addition of the 22-year old Noel would help extend that window.

Serge Ibaka:
Ibaka, while no longer the perennial DPOY candidate he once was, is the perfect PF to start next to Noel. He gives us the floor spacing we hoped to get from Aminu and Leonard, but is also still an excellent help defender and rim protector. He's made more 3-pointers than Aminu and Leonard combined and done so while shooting .412 3FG%.

The hard part will be getting him from ORL. For over a year, they have waffled between an all out youth movement vs. a win now and let's make the playoffs approach. The result is they haven't done very well at either approach. They constantly bench their young talent in favor of veterans, or worse yet, give that talent away for practically nothing.

As the trade deadline approaches and it's obvious they aren't making the playoffs, yet again, I think they may finally decide to go all in on the rebuild, making players like Vucevic and Ibaka available. Ibaka is 27-years old and accustomed to playing for a winning team. I doubt if he'd consider resigning with a team that is in full rebuild mode. If they are fearful of losing him for nothing, it may force their hand to trade him at the deadline while they can still get something for him.

At least, one can hope this happens. He is exactly the kind of two way role player this team needs to play next to Lillard and McColllum. He's good enough to be a third option on offense, a great help defender to help compensate for Lillard and McCollum's weak defense, and with his 3-point range, a great ft next to Noel on the offensive end.

Andrew Bogut:
Bogut is rock solid defensively, sets great screens and is an excellent passing big man. At 32, he is the kind of tough, wily veteran this team needs. He has championship experience and is exactly the kind of player you hate when he plays for someone else, but love when he plays for your team.

DAL is going nowhere and they know it. The window for extending Dirk's career has slammed shut. It's time to cut their losses on their many vets and look to start the post-Dirk years in Big D. Bogut should be available and it shouldn't take a lot to get him.

He'd be a a great back up center for Noel. Between the two of them, plus Ibakka, out interior defense would go from a major weakness to a big strength. That alone is reason enough to make these moves, but Bogut would also help Dame and C.J. get more open looks with the great (moving) screens he sets.

It's about More than just Defense:
When I first started hyping these three, it was for the obvious reason that it would vastly improve our defense, but after updating my Tale of the Single Digit PERs thread earlier today, I realized just how much we also need to upgrade the efficiency of our front court on the offensive end.

Mason Plumlee is currently our only big that's worth a damn, and as much as I appreciate his effort, energy and unique skill set, he does have limitations and is about to get paid a LOT. If we can get the three targeted players without giving up Plumlee, great, but he really is one of our most attractive trade assets and I wouldn't hesitate to move him if necessary.

Our remaining PF and back up C rotation flat out sucks. There's really no other way to put it. I would gladly move them all to get any/all of my three targeted players. It's glaringly obvious they provide zero rim protection, but they are also incredibly inefficient on offense, as well.

I posted it in the Single Digit PER thread, but it bares repeating here: the shooting percentages of all three of Aminu, Davis and Leonard have fallen off a cliff this year, and Vonleh was never good to begin with. From that thread, here's their current eFG%:

Al-Farouq Aminu: .382
Ed Davis: .495
Meyers Leonard: .450
Noah Vonleh: .430

Here's how Noel, Ibaka and Bogut stack up:
Nerlens Noel: .522
Serge Ibaka: .577
Andrew Bogut: .463

Notes:
I used Noel's 2015-16 eFG% of .522, since his .571 for this year is based on a sample size of 30 minutes played.

Bogut's eFG% with DAL is way down this year, compared to what it was the three previous years in GSW (.610, .565, .623). I believe his efficiency in POR, playing with Lillard and McCollum in a system similar to what he played in at GSW, would cause his eFG% to bounce back at least somewhat. Even if it only returns to within .050 of his career average it would be better than all of Aminu, Davis, Leonard and Vonleh.

What do we Keep and What do we Lose?
As I stated in my opening, I'd be willing to trade any one on this roster, except Dame and C.J. to make this happen. Of course we can't trade 13 players and only get 3 back, but that's the beauty of this dysfunctional roster - there is so much redundancy, as long as we're keeping Dame and C.J. and getting back three solid bigs, it doesn't really matter which of our wings or bigs we trade. The bigs will be replaced with better bigs (that's the point), so that just leaves the wings to fill.

Harkless is better than the others, but he's really nothing special in the grand scheme of things, certainly not untouchable. At 23, improving and an experienced starter, he will be attreactive to a team looking to rebuild. You have to give up something to get something, and I think Plumlee, Harkless, those 1st round draft picks, and perhaps Crabbe to the right team (PHI), are our biggest trade assets. If we lose Harkless, any one of Aminu, Turner or Crabbe can fill in at the starting SF spot without much of a drop off, especially since we would be adding Ibaka's 15.3 pg on .412 3FG% to the staring line up.

Although none of Aminu, Harkless, Turner and Crabbe are exactly the same, I'm not worried about losing any of them. Filling the starting SF and back up SG positions should be the least of our concerns. With an elite scoring backcourt and a very solid defense up front, we'd be fine with any of those four players starting at SF for us.

BNM

 

Again, another top notch post by the King of quality posts.

HOWEVER... I see one thing you pointed out that would be a concern to me.

You wrote the following about Ibaka:

Serge Ibaka:
Ibaka, while no longer the perennial DPOY candidate he once was, is the perfect PF to start next to Noel. He gives us the floor spacing we hoped to get from Aminu and Leonard, but is also still an excellent help defender and rim protector. He's made more 3-pointers than Aminu and Leonard combined and done so while shooting .412 3FG%.

The hard part will be getting him from ORL. For over a year, they have waffled between an all out youth movement vs. a win now and let's make the playoffs approach. The result is they haven't done very well at either approach. They constantly bench their young talent in favor of veterans, or worse yet, give that talent away for practically nothing.

As the trade deadline approaches and it's obvious they aren't making the playoffs, yet again, I think they may finally decide to go all in on the rebuild, making players like Vucevic and Ibaka available. Ibaka is 27-years old and accustomed to playing for a winning team. I doubt if he'd consider resigning with a team that is in full rebuild mode. If they are fearful of losing him for nothing, it may force their hand to trade him at the deadline while they can still get something for him.

At least, one can hope this happens. He is exactly the kind of two way role player this team needs to play next to Lillard and McColllum. He's good enough to be a third option on offense, a great help defender to help compensate for Lillard and McCollum's weak defense, and with his 3-point range, a great ft next to Noel on the offensive end.


I put in bold my concern. You see it right?

 

You realize that makes him only one year older than Dame and two years older then C.J., right?

I actually view that as a plus. I like the idea of having one young big with room to grow (Noel, 22) one mid-career player (Ibaka, 27) and one seasoned vet (Bogut, 32). There is no redundancy of roles and no one stepping on anyone else's toes.

Just because Ibaka is no longer one of the top 5 defenders in the league, doesn't mean he isn't light years better than anyone we currently have. Plus, back when he was a regular DPOY candidate, he didn't have the 3-point shot that now makes him a great fit next to Noel and Bogut.

BNM

 

I get what you're saying, but that wasn't quite my point. My point was that he is already declining defensively and he is only 27 years old. My concern is that he flames out in the next couple years and is a shadow of himself.
27 is pretty young to be considered, "not what he once was," Is my point.

 

I on board with what you are saying overall but a few things of note:
There are rumblings that Bogut is going to need to be shut down for the season soon. And while he isn't near untouchable, it would take a fair amount for me to deal Harkless.

 

I like all three players you target, but as I said in another thread I don't think Portland has the trade ammunition to get them. Even if we assume that Portland could get Noel for Crabbe and a draft pick, as the rumors suggest, I don't think Harkless, Plumlee and a draft pick add up to Ibaka alone, let alone still leaving enough for Bogut.

I'd love for Olshey to prove me wrong on that (assuming he, too, would target Ibaka), but I just don't see it. Orlando already cut bait on Harkless once and, even if they now see him as a better player, I doubt they'd make him the centerpiece for a player they gave up so much for. That would essentially be admitting they made two mistakes and it's not like the return is so exciting that they should swallow their pride. Plumlee is largely unbobjectionable filler, not a needle-mover and a draft pick doesn't make up the gap.

 

If Harkless goes, I'm thinking it may be more as part of a 3 team trade that nets us Ibaka. ORL doesn't need him back, but he might be a valuable piece to a third team that could send something of significant value to ORL.

BNM

 

Boob-No-More?

YOur not concerned?

 

He is a still a very good player but the drop-off on D didn't just start this year (so it isn't a one year fluke) so I am concerned. All depends on price of course.

 

And thats my point. I would be concerned too. That is the age where speed can start regressing and if that's all you rely on( which is alot of Defense)...

 

No, because he's shown he's still a very good defender. The drop off could be due to any number of reasons, different teammates, different system, different role, etc.

I also think it reflects a change in the power forward role in the last 5 years. Most teams now start a stretch 4. We don't see nearly has many Tim Duncans as we did in the past. That means a player like Ibaka has to guard his man out to the 3-point line, which means he's too far from the paint to get the weak side help BLKs that used to be his trademark.

That said, he's still 5th in the league in BLKs. I'll take that.

On the flip side, he's also having the best scoring season of his career. I doubt that would be true if his athleticism had completely deserted him.

In fact, the more I look at his numbers, both offensively and defensively, the more I'm convinced that his career arc is a direct reflection of the way the game has changed. He has gone from a weak side shot blocker guarding other players in the low post to the prototypical stretch 4 - on both ends of the court. It actually is a good thing that he's been able to successfully navigate this change as effectively as he has.

BNM

 

See? I knew you'd steer me right.

You read this @KeepOnRollin?

 

Orlando gave up a LOT for Ilbaka in the off season. I don't see them trading him, although you have a point in that they might just say fuck it and blow their entire roster up.

 

If you involved multiple teams it could work.

How bout this:

ORL Gets: Dragic, Matthews

DAL Gets: Peyton, Green, Plumlee

MIA Gets: Vonleh, Leonard, Ezeli, 2017 POR 1st, 2019 POR 1st, 2018 ORL 1st

POR Gets: Serge Ibaka, Andrew Bogut

Then we do:

Crabbe, Napier, 2018 CLE 1st
-for-
Noel, Henderson

MAGIC:
Dragic/Augustin
Matthews/Meeks
Fournier/Herzonja
Gordon/?
Vucevic/Biyombo

BLAZERS:
Lillard (36) / McCollum (12) / Quarterman
McCollum (23) / Turner (25) / Pay
Harkless (30) / Henderson (18) / Layman
Ibaka (30) / Aminu (18) / Davis?
Noel (28) / Bogut (20)

We could try to trade Davis to recoup a 1st round pick. (To Toronto for one if their two 2017 1sts, Poeltl and Caboclo?)

 

Getting rid of one (C.J.) does more than just improve the defense.

1. By trading CJ, we get something in return. Someone on his level.

2. Without two players taking the majority of shots, that makes more available for other players. The only way guys are going to improve is by giving them more responsibility.

The only way I see CJ and Dame working is if CJ is coming off the bench. Only so many PG minutes to split up though.

 

Move Crabbe to the 2, CJ from the bench, Napier as Dame's backup. Start Turner at the 3 with Harkless as his backup. Start Meyers at the 4 with Aminu as backup and Plumlee at the 5 with Davis and Vonleh as backup Cs who could also play some 4.
FIFY

 

Even some minutes for Layman as backup 3

 

Couldn't agree more. I don't think it is a coincidence that against the best offense in the NBA and against a team that scored 126 points just a week ago, you have 2 of your best defensive outings of the year when you only have 1 small guard on the court at a time. Of course it is a very small sample size but it is such a departure from the 120+ points they were giving up on a nightly basis.

You would get something back for CJ (something very good) and it would make you a more balanced and better defensive team. I know they are bff's but so was Frazier and look how much better his career was once he was moved. I think CJ needs his own team. He even talked last night about how he liked playing PG more because he had the ball in his hands much more. There is not room on this team for them both.....too similar, and too porous on defense.

 

You lost me at start Turner over Hark.

 

Crabbe, while slightly better on D is not and should not start. He scored 7 in the first game, and 13 in the first half of the SAC game. Nonexistent in the 2nd half. Showing what he's capable of with starter's minutes.

Small sample size but it's telling. Jesus.. Even through his season long slump Crabbe is overrated by this forum.