The Tale of the Single Digit PERs - Why We Suck Right Now and Why We'll Get Better

I'll start with a disclaimer: I am well aware that PER isn't a perfect one-size-fits-all stat. I am aware of it's limitations and weaknesses. That said, if you understand it's limitations, it can be useful. Hollinger's PER formula is an "all-in-one basketball rating, which attempts to boil down all of a player's contributions into one number".

It incorporates all the major stats, uses a weighted formula, adjusts for pace and normalizes for minutes played. The formula yields a PER for the league average player of 15.0. Since the formula includes all of shooting percentages, points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and turnovers, if you do at least one thing above average and don't totally suck at everything else, you should have a PER of at least 10. Hollinger readily admits the formula is largely a measure of a players offensive contributions and "that PER is not a reliable measure of a player's defensive acumen".

So, unless you're an elite lock down defender (Bruce Bowen, Tony Allen, etc.), if you have a single digit PER and are part of your team's regular rotation, your performance is hurting your team.

Last season we only had one player (Noah Vonleh) in our top 10 (in minutes played) with a single digit PER. For the entire 82 game schedule, that was 1174 minutes played, by players in our top 10, with single digit PERs.

Right now, through 15 games, we currently have 1150 minutes played, by players in our top 10, with single digit PERs.

If you have a couple guys in your rotation that aren't pulling their weight, you can survive it. It's no big deal. Most teams, even the good ones, have a couple guys in their top 10 with single digit PERs. No other team in the entire league had 5 guys in their top 10 with single digit PERs. Right now, the bottom half of our rotation is the worst in the entire league and it's not even really close. Forget earning their pay, these guys don't even deserve playing time. Of course the problem is, you have to give those minutes to somebody and ALL the guys who are getting those minutes suck, both collectively and individually.

Here are the culprits:

Evan Turner:
Minutes Played = 363
PER = 9.5

Ed Davis:
Minutes Played = 225
PER = 7.2

Al-Farouq Aminu:
Minutes Played = 209
PER = 8.3

Meyers Leonard:
Minutes Played = 202
PER = 8.6

Noah Vonleh:
Minutes Played = 151
PER = 7.6

No other team in the league has more than 4 players in their top 10 with single digit PERs.

The good news is none of these guys are old enough to be past their primes and none are in the kind of physical decline that would prevent them from regressing to their career norms. In fact, Turner, Davis and Leonard (along with Crabbe) have all increased their PER based on their most recent play. They are already heading in the right direction. While there is no guarantee that all five players will get back to their career average PER by the end of the season, the majority of then should at least be headed in that direction.

Here's how their current PER compares to their career averages and last two seasons:

Evan Turner:
Current PER = 9.5
Career PER = 12.4
2014-15 PER = 12.8
2015-15 PER = 13.6

Ed Davis:
Current PER = 7.2
Career PER = 17.0
2014-15 PER = 20.0
2015-15 PER = 18.7

Al-Farouq Aminu:
Current PER = 8.3
Career PER = 12.4
2014-15 PER = 14.4
2015-15 PER = 12.7

Meyers Leonard:
Current PER = 8.6
Career PER = 12.0
2014-15 PER = 14.8
2015-15 PER = 11.3

Noah Vonleh:
Current PER = 7.6
Career PER = 9.3
2014-15 PER = 13.2
2015-15 PER = 8.6

You can see that all five players aren't only performing below their career averages, they are also currently less productive than they have been in any recent season. It would be highly unusual for all five players, given their relatively young ages, to all fall off this dramatically in the same year.

We don't need, nor should we expect, them all to turn their seasons around, but if we can get two or three of them back close to their recent performance, it will help this team turn their season around. It will also increase their trade value.

BNM

 

You need to check the possibility that we hold our opponents to low PERS. Somehow you need to invent a stat of "difference in PERs." ...ours minus theirs, either for the team, or for each player.

 

A couple other observations:

GSW and CHI are the only teams with no single digit PER players in their top 10. GSW has none in their top 12 and CHI has no one below PER = 11.0 in their top 11.

In terms of unproductive players in their rotation, WAS is the 2nd worst team in the league. They only have two players in their top 10 with single digit PERs, but they have 2 more at exactly 10.0 and one at 10.1.

My first post highlights just how bad we are at the power forward position. We have been splitting those minutes between four players (Aminu, Davis, Leonard and Vonleh). Those four players all have PERs less than 9. We need at least two of them to turn their season around, and/or, we need a trade to address our weakness up front. We all know that, but I didn't realize how bad our power forward play has been until I looked at those numbers. I at least expected Ed Davis to be his steady, productive self. He hasn't been close. Even more than Evan Turner, Ed Davis has been the biggest disappointment for me so far this season.

BNM

 

I'll let you do that, but with the worst defense in the league, I suspect we aren't holding our opponents to low PERs or low anything else.

BNM

 

I'm not sure PER is a reliable stat.

Certainly, it is not as telling as the S2 LPP (likes per post) stat.
For example:
jlprk 24,641 posts, 2,471 likes for a LPP of .100
homerloveskoolaid 5070 posts, 2875 likes for an LPP of .567

The LPP stat is nearly as important as the A2M stat made famous by marzool.

 

Back when men were men, Frosted Flakes were Sugar Frosted Flakes, and Golden Crisp was Sugar Crisp, real Americans didn't Like each other, they read each other like a book. We watched "The $64,000 Question" on TV when that was real money. Then you came along with your cartoon avatar and pulled in more message board ratings than Lion King. This generation has it soft, and I'm sticking with my old original Twinkies in the closet, not the new-fangled ones in the store.

 

NBA.com's definition of efficiency points is points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks - turnovers - missed FGs - missed FTs.

Here is each team's difference from its opponents so far this season. If you see a correlation to win-loss percentage, tell me.

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/opponentstats/17/7/diffeff/1-1

 

Another interesting note: PHI only has one player in their top 10 with a single digit PER. The problem in PHI is their best four players are 8th, 9th, 10th and 11th in minutes played. Their best two, Okafor and Embiid, are on minute restrictions due to past injury concerns and, therefore 10th and 11th in minutes played. It also doesn't help that their four best players are all front court players - an that's without Noel playing a single minute this season.

There REALLY needs to be a trade between PHI and POR to help balance both rosters. We desparately need front court help and they seriously need some decent perimeter players.

BNM

 

Are you suggesting that Bob Whitsitt has no cartoon appeal?

 

And another thing. If you're hiding Twinkies, it may be time to come out of the closet.

 

A few years ago when Hostess announced it would stop making them, I had just bought a box at Costco. Knowing the treasure in my closet, I secretly hid the future antique beneath a musty trap door. The IRS knows nothing of my off-the-books wealth. Only one remains, and it may be the only specimen future generations of archaeologists will get to see in a museum.

 

Great Post @Boob-No-More , funny I read the exact same stuff word for word on SI.com. Some dude named Banjammin, Gallivar or something.

 

I think I read that Twinkies have a half-life of about 375,000 years, and if there was a global nuclear war, only rats, cockroaches, republicans, and Twinkies would survive. Can you confirm?

 

It used to be that good teams took the ball inside and either scored or were fouled. The guards were a reserve force in plays when that failed. If a big man kept passing back out instead of taking on his man to the rim, he was a wimp.

In international play with European referees, Americans noticed that big men were allowed to practically murder each other, while if you touched a guard, it was a foul. David Stern drooled and said, we gotta change NBA rules to increase scoring. It took a few years, but here we are, dependent upon outside shooting. Even enforcer PFs are judged by delicate shooting. Even stiff, brutish Centers must play with finesse. It's crazy.

The best coaching style has not yet been standardized in this new environment. Stotts led the way in his first season here, but quickly all the other teams copied him and have it mastered. His gimmicks no longer work. We need an old-fashioned coach who is a defensive genius, while coping with all the new hot rod shooting. We need Byron Scott. Freed from the yoke of Kobe Bryant, Scott will do wonders here and I can't wait for Olshey to see the light. I am starting a GoFundMe or whatever it's called to hire him.

 

You're kinda getting off topic here jl.
Back to Twinkies......

 

You mean back when KFC was Kentucky Fried Chicken? They did a major re-branding program because they wanted to project a healthier image. Rather than change their menu, they changed their name to expunge that nasty "fried" word from their identity. Evidently, they thought their customers lacked the intelligence to figure out what the acronym meant. Evidently, they were right.

BNM

 

Been there often.

Not sure there is any correlation between bench Efficiency Differential (Deff) and winning. Remember, a few years back, we won 54 games with one of the least productive benches in NBA history. Our bench sucked, but our starters could hang with anyone.

Conversely, if your starters suck, a great bench won't save your bacon.

What I would recommend is sorting several different stats by position. You will see just how bad we are at every position other than SG and PG.

I know most posters are pleased as punch with Mo's improved shooting, but we get almost nothing else from the SF position. 24th in points, 29th in rebounds, 23rd in assists, 29th in steals, 23rd in Deff.

PF isn't much better (22nd in Deff), but center is where we really get killed. We're 29th in Deff. Combined, that gives us the worst front court in the league. Not only are we dead last in front court Deff, it's not close. We're at -19.9. The second worst team, is at -13.2.

That just reinforces what I said in my original post and what is obvious to everyone: we NEED front court help and we need it bad.

BNM

 

Not all Republicans, only the True Believers

 

PER isnt perfect, but those names are definitely part of the 'omg he sucks this season (and probably last season excl. ed)' statements

 

Hey, I'll buy into the PER system any day. As long as I don't ever have to hear about WAR again as long as I live.
Mike Trout, the Master of WAR! (loud vomitting sounds)