We got the #3 pick. Discuss the possibilities.

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Strenuus, May 16, 2023.

?

What are you hoping for with this pick?

  1. Draft Scoot and keep him

    27.6%
  2. Draft Miller and keep him

    28.6%
  3. Draft someone else at 3 and keep him (please specify)

    3.1%
  4. Trade down, but still draft in the lottery

    10.2%
  5. Trade the pick for a starting forward

    30.6%
  1. BankTeller

    BankTeller Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2021
    Messages:
    2,592
    Likes Received:
    2,431
    Trophy Points:
    113
    There’s no way IND considers that. I already have a hard time believing they’d be willing to give up Mathurin and maybe Ausar or Hendricks because they love Miller that much. IND just extended Turner—if they haven’t traded him all this time, they’re not doing it for Nurk.
     
  2. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2008
    Messages:
    21,344
    Likes Received:
    33,294
    Trophy Points:
    113
    IMO, generically the drop from 3 to 7 is worth more than a couple of very late 1st's. Quite a bit more in my view

    I think I'd want at least 7 + 26 + a future 1st that has diminishing protections over 3 years and coneys as unprotected in the 3rd year. And a couple of 2nd's. That the generic version

    if this is truly a 3 person draft, then no, not good enough. I'd rather have 6 + 11 from Orlando, and even then, that's a little light, IMO
     
    GoBlazersGo, Phatguysrule and BIG Q like this.
  3. BankTeller

    BankTeller Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2021
    Messages:
    2,592
    Likes Received:
    2,431
    Trophy Points:
    113
    So you’re going to pay Turner his 21m, Grant his sub 30m, Pascal his 35m, and Dame whatever his number is? That’s over 100m in our starting lineup.

    We’re already small and Turner averages 7.5rpg. Your starting PF/C can’t combine for 12rpg. Turner isn’t a massive upgrade, if at all, to Nurk. Trading down to #7 as well? I’m good.

    If Miller falls to us and the guy the FO wants falls to #7, just give me that guy and #26 + #29.

    #26 should go to CHI to unprotect the pick. But at #23 and #29, they need to draft a Leonard Miller or Dereck Lively.
     
  4. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2008
    Messages:
    90,733
    Likes Received:
    52,880
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Portland, OR
    Passing on Miller would be a mistake. I have been watching some film of him and he has a pretty quick release. He gets the shot off quick on the move. I think he's going to be a good shooter in the NBA.
     
  5. BankTeller

    BankTeller Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2021
    Messages:
    2,592
    Likes Received:
    2,431
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You could be right. I’m no good at evaluating the value of draft picks.

    I would also ask for Jalen Smith to us for part of the GPII TPE. He’s still young and fills a void at the backup C spot. Smith is a quality defender that rebounds well. Nearly 2 oreb/gm in less than 20mpg is impressive.
     
  6. KingSpeed

    KingSpeed Veteran

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2008
    Messages:
    61,103
    Likes Received:
    21,154
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    actor
    Location:
    New York
    I like that deal. Blazers need multiple good players to climb the standings. Look at how deep Boston and Denver are.
     
  7. AmirIcon

    AmirIcon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2008
    Messages:
    5,875
    Likes Received:
    5,295
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Writer, Director, Actor
    I think the question is, how good can he be? Can he create his own shot off the dribble? Can he attack the rim? Get to the free throw line? I haven't done a deep dig on him, but he seems more Michael Porter Jr. than Paul George. A good player, but if you're drafting at #3 you want great.

    I trust our scouts and will be excited for anyone they decide to go with at #3 or wherever.
     
    Tince and Phatguysrule like this.
  8. KingSpeed

    KingSpeed Veteran

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2008
    Messages:
    61,103
    Likes Received:
    21,154
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    actor
    Location:
    New York
    This from Reddit:


    r/RipCity Consensus Offseason Big Picture Plan
    A lot has been made over the difference of opinion this sub has on how to approach this offseason, but I think there is a misconception about the first domino. For MOST people here, it's really not as simple as trade Dame or trade the pick or whatever since it depends on what is available and what opportunities actually present themselves. Perhaps this presentation of much of the same debate could frame it in a way where we all more or less agree.

    Plan A:
    What is the threshold for player caliber where it's worthwhile for us to trade the #3 pick and what actual players are in the list?

    Note: When I say trade the #3 pick for player x here in plan A, I realize that for most of these players it will require the #3 plus Ant and/or other things. But this calculus is simply for including the #3 pick in a trade for one of these players. It's my belief that if Plan C below does not occur, we need to move Ant for a frontcourt player either way.

    Step 1:

    For me this needs to be an All-NBA player, particularly one that doesn't have an asterisk by their name (because of better players being injured or otherwise not qualified).

    Certainties: Giannis, Luka, Embiid, SGA, Tatum, Butler, Curry, Jokic, LeBron, Booker, Kawhi, Harden, Anthony Davis, Durant

    Marginal : Jaylen Brown, Donovan Mitchell, Fox, Randle, Morant, DeRozen, Siakim, Towns, Trae Young, Beal, Paul George, Kyrie, Gobert, Chris Paul, Sabonis

    Let's not quibble too much about this part of the list. It's only purpose is to create part of the intitial list. Did I miss anyone?

    Step 2:

    Now we need to add in players who might jump INTO the list because they are young and perhaps still improving. Personally, this has a strong motivation for me because I am MOST interested in players that could meaningfully bridge both Dame and Sharpe's timelines. Tatum is probably the best example at 25 years old, but he's not available.

    The list:

    Mikal Bridges, Lauri Markkanen, Anthony Edwards, Zion, Brandon Ingram, Jaren Jackson Jr,

    Marginals:

    Ayton, ???

    Did I miss anyone?

    Step 3:

    Then we should subtract the players that don't make sense positionally, or are clearly not available, or maybe we just don't want (Julius Randle):

    Not available: Luka, Curry, SGA, Jokic, Sabonis, Booker, Fox, Tatum, Anthony Edwards, Jaren Jackson Jr, Durant

    Positional incompatibility/Don't want: Mitchell, Fox, Randle, Morant, Trae Young, Beal, Kyrie, Gobert, Chris Paul, Harden

    Step 4: Tiers

    Remaining Players where IF they become available we should CLEARLY trade the #3 pick for:

    Giannis, Embiid (Giannis is probably not available, but there have been some faint rumblings)

    Remaining Players we PROBABLY/MAYBE should trade the #3 pick for:

    Butler, LeBron, Kawhi, Brown, Paul George, Anthony Davis, Mikal Bridges, Zion

    Remaining Players we should argue about trading the #3 pick for:

    KAT, DeRozen, Siakim, Markkanen, Brandon Ingram, Ayton



    For me, realistically that leaves 10 players that might be available that move the needle enough that I think it's worth throwing all our chips in for them, with 6 more that might be good enough to make it worth it. Once you get into the murky waters of the Siakims and Markkanens you have to question whether or not it would really be enough (with a couple of other smaller moves) to push into any kind of real contention. The danger of giving up the pick and Ant only to become mediocre seems obvious and has been well hashed out. We SHOULD NOT trade our pick for anyone lesser than those on this list. Do we agree on that?

    Perhaps at this point we agree. Maybe we disagree on which of these players could actually become available, but hopefully we mostly agree that if they are available, and we COULD obtain them using the #3 and a reasonable amount of other assets based on the actual player, that we should. So if that happens, we are basically done. We can move onto smaller trades and free agent signings to fill out roster deficiencies.

    Plan B
    But what if none of those guys become available OR other teams win the bid for them?

    Now what? My personal preference is to keep the pick, try and trade Ant/Nurk (even Grant in a sign and trade if necessary given his weaknesses at the 4) and future picks, other young guys. However, from talking to a connection inside the team, Dame has evidently made it clear that he will ask out if Plan A above does not work out. Plan C is based on this intel being accurate. Plan B then becomes try and change his mind. I convince him to attend a workout with Scoot/Brandon Miller and see if I can get him hyped enough to be a little more patient with this process. What could this team do by adding Miller, trading Ant and Nurk for Jonathon Isaac and Wendell Carter Jr or ??? and signing Brook Lopez?

    Plan C
    Plan C then becomes the bad news. We couldn't hit on a trade, we couldn't convince Dame to give it another year with some incremental improvements and a high ceiling pick, so Dame asks out and we look for a trading partner. In my mind, the list of attractive young players looks even more interesting. You could also add Darius Garland, Bam, Scottie Barnes. Would MIN trade Anthony Edwards for Dame? Could we get Lauri + Kessler for Dame and Nurk?

    Can we move past the trade Dame vs trade the pick camps and agree on Plan A/B/C?
     
    blazerkor and Phatguysrule like this.
  9. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2008
    Messages:
    90,733
    Likes Received:
    52,880
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Portland, OR
    How good can he be? Hard to say. I'm not seeing a clear 100% star outside of Wemby... and even that dude has doubts because of the potential for injuries.

    Can he create his own shot off the dribble? Yes.

    Can he attack the rim? I don't see why not. He's 6'9 and he's athletic.

    Get to the free throw line? That depends on the refs, no?

    MPJ is a pretty good player. I think Miller will be a better defender and a better passer.
     
  10. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2008
    Messages:
    90,733
    Likes Received:
    52,880
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Portland, OR
  11. Phatguysrule

    Phatguysrule Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2008
    Messages:
    14,125
    Likes Received:
    11,966
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Sure. If that's the best deal we can get. Seems like it'll work
     
  12. inconceivable

    inconceivable Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 12, 2010
    Messages:
    2,195
    Likes Received:
    2,520
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You sound like you're begrudgingly ok with the proposal. I think it's a great deal for us.

    One of Amen, Ausar, Whitmore, Hendricks, Walker will be available a 7.

    One of them plus Turner and Mathurin is great value for #3
     
    Phatguysrule likes this.
  13. Phatguysrule

    Phatguysrule Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2008
    Messages:
    14,125
    Likes Received:
    11,966
    Trophy Points:
    113
  14. Phatguysrule

    Phatguysrule Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2008
    Messages:
    14,125
    Likes Received:
    11,966
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Not begrudgingly at all. I just want the best deal we can get. I'm not getting hung up on the who's or how's. Let's just bring back the most possible talent. I'm not going to get bent out of shape regardless what happens and I'm not going to get my heart set on anything specific happening.

    That looks like a good deal to me. If it's available I'm sure we'll do it.

    That is, unless we think we can draft The Answer at #3.
     
    HailBlazers and inconceivable like this.
  15. theprunetang

    theprunetang Shaedon "Deadly Nightshade" Sharpe is HIM

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2008
    Messages:
    11,592
    Likes Received:
    21,108
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Dude is going to be a stud. Reminds me of Tatum at the same age.
     
    42N8Bounce and Natebishop3 like this.
  16. AmirIcon

    AmirIcon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2008
    Messages:
    5,875
    Likes Received:
    5,295
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Writer, Director, Actor
    That's not a good enough answer. There are plenty of good sized athletes who don't attack the rim. Some because they shy away from contact. Others because they don't have the dribble. That's how I knew Martell Webster was never going to be anything other than a shooter. He had no handle to get to the rim.

    No.

    Not someone worth the #3 pick in the draft.

    Like I said, no doubt Miller will be a good player. If you're drafting that high, you want to get a star. Scoot puts pressure on the defense constantly. You have to change your defense for him and the pace he pushes. He has more star potential from what I see.

    We'll see what our scouts are feeling.
     
  17. AmirIcon

    AmirIcon Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2008
    Messages:
    5,875
    Likes Received:
    5,295
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Writer, Director, Actor
    Tatum was much shiftier with the ball. Everyone universally agrees on that.
     
  18. CJ_is_Gone

    CJ_is_Gone Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2022
    Messages:
    1,813
    Likes Received:
    1,908
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I'd ranter pick up Isaiah Jackson.
     
    cheesehoff likes this.
  19. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2008
    Messages:
    90,733
    Likes Received:
    52,880
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Portland, OR
    Watch the videos yourself.
     
  20. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2008
    Messages:
    21,344
    Likes Received:
    33,294
    Trophy Points:
    113
    interesting

    I sure don't see anybody on the Dallas roster worth getting excited about. The Mavs would have to put that 10th pick in play but I'd imagine the Suns would insist on getting it

    this seems like a pretty meh trade for Portland and Phoenix. Unless the Blazers get the 10th pick, Kleiber and Josh Green
     
    Phatguysrule likes this.

Share This Page