OT Coronavirus: America in chaos, News and Updates. One million Americans dead and counting (2 Viewers)

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andalusian said:
Either that, or the value of leadership is bigger than what you think in a country that values individualism as the US does.
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Yes, but we know that at least 40ish percent of the country despises Trump, they weren't listening to Trump for guidance. I mean you could say that the entire thing is because of "Trump" if you want too, but you're a mathematics guy, you're writing a program analyzing this data, how would you handle it? I can't think of a single data science class I've taken that would say an outlier this big would be considered. It would be considered a bad data sample, wouldn't it? Not arguing just asking. Mathematically speaking, you could normalize it I guess, but it's an extreme outlier and there are other countries who have handled it similarly who aren't as big of an outlier.
 
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TorturedBlazerFan said:
From a mathematical POV don't these numbers kinda scream that something is off, either the rest of the world is counting things differently, or reporting differently, or something. There are quite a few countries who have handled it, similarly to the US, some worse, some better obviously, but for the US to be such a statistical outlier there's more than, "Trump" going on. I'm not defending how it's been handled, but you can't tell me in a statistics class they would look at this chart and keep the US's data, it would be disregarded as extremely out of the bounds of all the other data.
https://www.theanalysisfactor.com/outliers-to-drop-or-not-to-drop/
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If your goal was to analyze the world-wide data, then sure, you might drop the US as an outlier.

But what good does that do us, in the US? We have to analyze why we are an outlier, not discard ourselves from the analysis.

barfo
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
Yes, but we know that at least 40ish percent of the country despises Trump, they weren't listening to Trump for guidance. I mean you could say that the entire thing is because of "Trump" if you want too, but you're a mathematics guy, you're writing a program analyzing this data, how would you handle it? I can't think of a single data science class I've taken that would say an outlier this big would be considered. It would be considered a bad data sample, wouldn't it? Not arguing just asking. Mathematically speaking, you could normalize it I guess, but it's an extreme outlier and there are other countries who have handled it similarly who aren't as big of an outlier.
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trump has proven to be an extremely poor leader especially in a time of crisis. No excuses
 
barfo said:
If your goal was to analyze the world-wide data, then sure, you might drop the US as an outlier.

But what good does that do us, in the US? We have to analyze why we are an outlier, not discard ourselves from the analysis.

barfo
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Yes, that's my point. If your analysis is just "Trump" though, that doesn't seem incredibly deep... There is more to it than that, or at least probably is... Things like it's being reported differently or counted differently, or testing is off, there's a lot of things it "could be". Just something seems off, especially because other countries have had similar issues with handling it but they aren't outliers.
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
Yes, but we know that at least 40ish percent of the country despises Trump, they weren't listening to Trump for guidance. I mean you could say that the entire thing is because of "Trump" if you want too, but you're a mathematics guy, you're writing a program analyzing this data, how would you handle it? I can't think of a single data science class I've taken that would say an outlier this big would be considered. It would be considered a bad data sample, wouldn't it? Not arguing just asking. Mathematically speaking, you could normalize it I guess, but it's an extreme outlier and there are other countries who have handled it similarly who aren't as big of an outlier.
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The issue is not who is listening, this is a collection of multiple mistakes that accumulate. Mathematically, this is what I would call a compound interest problem. Early detection if he did not dismantle the team in the China, early response if the pandemic playbook has not been abandoned, disbelief that it is different from the flu, being slow to stop travel and doing it partially (not recognizing that the problem was coming from Europe when travel was restricted after the fact from China), not coordinating purchasing of equipment and having the states fight each other for supplies, spreading misinformation, diverting funds to pet projects that have proven to be a waste, continuing to ignore best practices (masks).

Yes, this problem is mostly a leadership issue. The fact that we still do not have a federal masks executive order is astonishing, the fact that we still do not have a federal supplies purchase infrastructure is amazing. Europe, as a whole, has 2 times as many citizens as the US and yet their total number of Covid-19 cases is below the US alone, they had a combination of strong EU leadership with strong individual countries leadership. (For the record, the US and the European continent are about the same size, so we are talking about twice the density for Europe for less cases - and their curve seems much much better than ours).

I am not saying there would be no pandemic if Trump was not president, I am saying we would likely look like Europe or the other non-3rd world countries if we had strong, coherent leadership with federal policies to contain it. You think the situation would not have been a whole lot better if we had coordinated federal response that was early, coherent and competent? Do you think that the president's dismal approval ratings would not have been better if this was handled much better? George W. Bush had magnificent approval ratings after 9/11 because he worked to unify the nation against the threat. Trump did not and has caused a huge part of the problem.
 
Treatment has improved since March, so survival is higher, and there is evidence more young people are getting sick. They are more likely to survive. But that could change and no one knows how much lifelong damage they will have.
 
crandc said:
Treatment has improved since March, so survival is higher, and there is evidence more young people are getting sick. They are more likely to survive. But that could change and no one knows how much lifelong damage they will have.
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Yup, lung damage is also a consideration...plus, while the youngsters are more likely to survive if they are diagnosed with the virus, they are therefore also likely to spread the virus to their parents and grandparents who are not as likely to survive.
 
andalusian said:
The issue is not who is listening, this is a collection of multiple mistakes that accumulate. Mathematically, this is what I would call a compound interest problem. Early detection if he did not dismantle the team in the China, early response if the pandemic playbook has not been abandoned, disbelief that it is different from the flu, being slow to stop travel and doing it partially (not recognizing that the problem was coming from Europe when travel was restricted after the fact from China), not coordinating purchasing of equipment and having the states fight each other for supplies, spreading misinformation, diverting funds to pet projects that have proven to be a waste, continuing to ignore best practices (masks).

Yes, this problem is mostly a leadership issue. The fact that we still do not have a federal masks executive order is astonishing, the fact that we still do not have a federal supplies purchase infrastructure is amazing. Europe, as a whole, has 2 times as many citizens as the US and yet their total number of Covid-19 cases is below the US alone, they had a combination of strong EU leadership with strong individual countries leadership. (For the record, the US and the European continent are about the same size, so we are talking about twice the density for Europe for less cases - and their curve seems much much better than ours).

I am not saying there would be no pandemic if Trump was not president, I am saying we would likely look like Europe or the other non-3rd world countries if we had strong, coherent leadership with federal policies to contain it.
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I think some of this is "fair", but some kinda isn't. Fair may not be the right word, but many countries even in the EU were late to react, not every country in the EU has a mask mandate (I think we're at about 50 countries WW at this point). I'm not really sure if they were quicker to detect it or not, that's probably hit and miss, the EU, and the US are very large geographically and population-wise, some countries and states inside the borders did better jobs than others. I think those "stimulus" bills a bunch of people had their hands in that it wasn't just Trump, they used that to fund pet projects. If you want to count "leadership" as a whole, yes I think that plays into it some, but in 25 years or so I think it'll be fascinating to see what "history" has to say about all this and what numbers come out as data has time to be played out.

Edit: Which is kinda my point every country has handled this in different ways, and in "large" countries or continents within the borders different areas have handled it quite differently too. So it could just be compound interest of "leadership" or lack thereof, but I think you and I could both admit, that may not be verifiable through data and may just be confirmation bias speaking.

Just thinking when I look at the "world" numbers, I constantly think something about the US's numbers seems drastically off from the rest of the world, and IMO it seems like many other countries some small, some big, had similar issues as the US did, which is why I don't think it's 100% leadership since it's not like we're unique in having bad leaders, go to just about any place in the world and you'll find people who think their leadership sucks...
 
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TorturedBlazerFan said:
I think some of this is "fair", but some kinda isn't. Fair may not be the right word, but many countries even in the EU were late to react, not every country in the EU has a mask mandate (I think we're at about 50 countries WW at this point). I'm not really sure if they were quicker to detect it or not, that's probably hit and miss, the EU, and the US are very large geographically and population-wise, some countries and states inside the borders did better jobs than others. I think those "stimulus" bills a bunch of people had their hands in that it wasn't just Trump, they used that to fund pet projects. If you want to count "leadership" as a whole, yes I think that plays into it some, but in 25 years or so I think it'll be fascinating to see what "history" has to say about all this and what numbers come out as data has time to be played out.
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I see what you are saying, but still, as a whole, the EU and the US are comparable in geographical size, both are mostly technologically advanced and despite the fact that the EU has more than twice as many citizens and has about the same (overall) testing per capita as the US - their cases are lower than the US - so overall, it is pretty clear that two entities with strong, rich economies and a lot of movement for business and pleasure purposes have very different results in their containment. It is pretty certain to me where the issue is - in one of them, there was a clear, quick, coherent response, in the other, there was not.
 
andalusian said:
I see what you are saying, but still, as a whole, the EU and the US are comparable in geographical size, both are mostly technologically advanced and despite the fact that the EU has more than twice as many citizens and has about the same (overall) testing per capita as the US - their cases are lower than the US - so overall, it is pretty clear that two entities with strong, rich economies and a lot of movement for business and pleasure purposes have very different results in their containment. It is pretty certain to me where the issue is - in one of them, there was a clear, quick, coherent response, in the other, there was not.
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Is Europe as a whole testing as many per day as the US? I honestly have no idea what the answer to that question is, I'm just asking.
 


They are having a potluck with strangers in the resurgence of a pandemic.
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
Is Europe as a whole testing as many per day as the US? I honestly have no idea what the answer to that question is, I'm just asking.
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Seems like it from what I read. About the same per capita (brought down by countries like Russia that has lower per capita testing while countries like Germany has higher). (These are all back of the envelope calculations I made from some of the bigger countries in Europe, I did not find a convenient whole of Europe source).
 
andalusian said:
Seems like it from what I read. About the same per capita (brought down by countries like Russia that has lower per capita testing while countries like Germany has higher).
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Haha, my bad I misread your response you said per capita it was similar in your last post.
 
jonnyboy said:
Of course the knowledge of confirmed cases increases with more testing. You’re literally contradicting yourself here. Aren’t you one of the ones on here pulling your hair out over the increased numbers? The fact that more cases are discovered with more testing shouldn’t even be debatable lol. It’s just basic, rudimentary logic.
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I don't even know what you're trying to say here, but I'm going to guess that the mocking of Trump just went over your head. It's hard to get jokes when you're just doing your twice-weekly pop-in-to-yell-angrily act.
 
EL PRESIDENTE said:
Are mass gatherings ok if you wear a mask?

What about a potluck with strangers?
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Didn't say that that, did I?...are you at a greater or lesser risk of spreading/acquiring the virus with a mask?

Insert your latest spin here;_____________________________________.
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
Yes, that's my point. If your analysis is just "Trump" though, that doesn't seem incredibly deep... There is more to it than that, or at least probably is... Things like it's being reported differently or counted differently, or testing is off, there's a lot of things it "could be". Just something seems off, especially because other countries have had similar issues with handling it but they aren't outliers.
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Not sure your premise is true - that other countries aren't outliers. Someone has already pointed out Brazil, which has similar leadership issues as us, and a similarly bad result.

But even if we are the only bad apple in the bunch, the reason might be, as you suggest, bad data of some sort. Or it might be that we are indeed 'special'.

barfo
 
yankeesince59 said:
Didn't say that that, did I?...are you at a greater or lesser risk of spreading/acquiring the virus with a mask?

Insert your latest spin here;_____________________________________.
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You seem to tolerate this mass gathering of strangers because they are wearing masks.
 
Minstrel said:
barfo trots out the old "American exceptionalism" argument. What a nationalist.
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I'm an old white man. Why would it surprise you?

Now if you'll excuse me, I need to get in my golf cart, I have a few things to shout about.

barfo
 
Minstrel said:
You were a young (probably white) man when I met you. This war has gone on too long. I guess I'm old too, by now.
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Our salad days,
when we were green in judgment,
cold in blood
To say as we said then!

barfo
 
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