Norm Powell Contract

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UKRAINEFAN said:
Right. CJ had a usg % 0f 27 and Norm about 20. I agree with you on the eyeball test, that Norm looked like maybe he wanted to pass more but he learned in a different system than Stotts, so I don't think guys were where he thought they would be.
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How is USG calculated? Norm got shots up, but he was never filling any kind of PG role on the team. CJ was basically our backup point guard. Norm was filling our SF role.
 
Natebishop3 said:
How is USG calculated? Norm got shots up, but he was never filling any kind of PG role on the team. CJ was basically our backup point guard. Norm was filling our SF role.
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"An estimate of the % of team plays used by a player while they were on the floor" Not very clear, is it?
 
blazedanugz said:
appreciate it.
So if we use the full MLE, we can still guarantee Nurk and resign Powell or not? Or is a situation that things need to happen in a certain order?

if we resign Powell and guarantee Nurk, does the full MLE go away?
Click to expand...
The order of transactions does not matter. Everything is based on the cap situation at the end of the season.

Play on this website for a while: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/portland-trail-blazers/cap/2021/

For this '21-'22 Season, the Cap is currently projected to be $112M with the Lux Tax line being at $136.6M
https://bleacherreport.com/articles...xury-tax-reportedly-set-for-2021-2024-seasons

By my calcs, the Hard Cap will be ~$141.5 M. If Hard Capped, the team must stay below the number at all times for the entire season - no exceptions.

Current Cap Scenario
Dame - $39.3M
CJ - $30.8M
RoCo - $13.0M
Nurk - $12.0M (Portland will guarantee this contract)
DJJ - $9.7M (Assuming he'll opt into this contract)
Ant - $3.9M
Little - $2.3M
Elleby - $1.5M
Nicholson - $2.8M (dead cap space)
$115.3M for 8 players (which is already above the cap line)

Tools available to sign players
Bi-Annual Exception - $3.6M -> (if used, will be hard capped)
MLE (~$10M) or Tax MLE (~$6M) -> if the Full $10M MLE is used, the team is hard capped
Sign & Trade -> If receiving the FA player via S&T, the team is hard capped
Bird Exceptions -> Allows us to resign our own FA to new deals
Rookie Contracts -> Portland doesn't have any picks this draft...
Minimum Contracts -> Each one has ~$1.8M cap hit

Scenario Planning
Option A (go 'all in' with the current players)
+ Resign Powell @ $20M/yr (Bird Exception)
+ Resign Collins @ $7M/yr (Bird Exception)
+ Resign Kanter @ $5M/yr (Bird Exception)
+ Let everyone else walk
= ~$148M in salary for 11 players. Since Portland is over the Hard Cap, we'd only have the Tax MLE and Min Contracts available to fill out the remaining 4 roster positions.
Total Team Payroll would be ~$158M (with an additional ~$85M tax bill)
Paying $250M on a first round exit team is not a smart decision....

Option B (the FA play)
+ Resign Collins @ $7M/yr (Bird Exception)
+ Resign Kanter @ $5M/yr (Bird Exception)
+ Let everyone else walk
= ~$128M in salary for 10 players. Portland would be within $14M of the Hard Cap (with 4-5 roster spots to fill). Assuming Portland only caries 14 players on the roster, Portland could sign 3 players to Min Contracts. That would only allow Portland to use part of the normal MLE and sign someone up to ~$8M. IF Portland decides to let Kanter or Collins walk, we could possibly use the FULL MLE ($10M) and the Bi Annual Exceptions ($3.6M) to sign new players.
Total Team Payroll would be ~$141M (with an additional ~$20M tax bill)


Conclusion
This summer is going to be very disappointing to most fans. Portland will be stuck in Cap Hell with very few options for improvements. I'd anticipate that they are targeting someone with the Tax MLE ($6M) and Min Contracts in FA.
 
UKRAINEFAN said:
"An estimate of the % of team plays used by a player while they were on the floor" Not very clear, is it?
Click to expand...

Nah not really. Totally going off memory, most of his plays were either a drive or a corner three kind of thing. They'd get him the ball and he'd try to attack the rim or put up a shot. Not much facilitating or running the offense.
 
tester551 said:
The order of transactions does not matter. Everything is based on the cap situation at the end of the season.

Play on this website for a while: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/portland-trail-blazers/cap/2021/

For this '21-'22 Season, the Cap is currently projected to be $112M with the Lux Tax line being at $136.6M
https://bleacherreport.com/articles...xury-tax-reportedly-set-for-2021-2024-seasons

By my calcs, the Hard Cap will be ~$141.5 M. If Hard Capped, the team must stay below the number at all times for the entire season - no exceptions.

Current Cap Scenario
Dame - $39.3M
CJ - $30.8M
RoCo - $13.0M
Nurk - $12.0M (Portland will guarantee this contract)
DJJ - $9.7M (Assuming he'll opt into this contract)
Ant - $3.9M
Little - $2.3M
Elleby - $1.5M
Nicholson - $2.8M (dead cap space)
$115.3M for 8 players (which is already above the cap line)

Tools available to sign players
Bi-Annual Exception - $3.6M -> (if used, will be hard capped)
MLE (~$10M) or Tax MLE (~$6M) -> if the Full $10M MLE is used, the team is hard capped
Sign & Trade -> If receiving the FA player via S&T, the team is hard capped
Bird Exceptions -> Allows us to resign our own FA to new deals
Rookie Contracts -> Portland doesn't have any picks this draft...
Minimum Contracts -> Each one has ~$1.8M cap hit

Scenario Planning
Option A (go 'all in' with the current players)
+ Resign Powell @ $20M/yr (Bird Exception)
+ Resign Collins @ $7M/yr (Bird Exception)
+ Resign Kanter @ $5M/yr (Bird Exception)
+ Let everyone else walk
= ~$148M in salary for 11 players. Since Portland is over the Hard Cap, we'd only have the Tax MLE and Min Contracts available to fill out the remaining 4 roster positions.
Total Team Payroll would be ~$158M (with an additional ~$85M tax bill)
Paying $250M on a first round exit team is not a smart decision....

Option B (the FA play)
+ Resign Collins @ $7M/yr (Bird Exception)
+ Resign Kanter @ $5M/yr (Bird Exception)
+ Let everyone else walk
= ~$128M in salary for 10 players. Portland would be within $14M of the Hard Cap (with 4-5 roster spots to fill). Assuming Portland only caries 14 players on the roster, Portland could sign 3 players to Min Contracts. That would only allow Portland to use part of the normal MLE and sign someone up to ~$8M. IF Portland decides to let Kanter or Collins walk, we could possibly use the FULL MLE ($10M) and the Bi Annual Exceptions ($3.6M) to sign new players.
Total Team Payroll would be ~$141M (with an additional ~$20M tax bill)


Conclusion
This summer is going to be very disappointing to most fans. Portland will be stuck in Cap Hell with very few options for improvements. I'd anticipate that they are targeting someone with the Tax MLE ($6M) and Min Contracts in FA.
Click to expand...


Appreciate it!
 
Pretty interesting but CJ Elleby has been working out with Norman Powell since the season ended. They've been together almost every day at least from their IGs. He also responded "more work to be done" or something similar to the Blazers posting about him. Seems like he likes it here quite a bit. If they don't fuck with him in negotiations I think he's ours to lose.
 
this dude is at the top of my list on people i want to see here next season. make it happen!
 
tester551 said:
Conclusion
This summer is going to be very disappointing to most fans. Portland will be stuck in Cap Hell with very few options for improvements. I'd anticipate that they are targeting someone with the Tax MLE ($6M) and Min Contracts in FA.
Click to expand...
Every year anybody counts on free agency in Portland is disappointing. I actually can't believe people still count on it for significant improvements.

We need to improve via draft and trades or we're not going to improve. And we don't have the time to wait on the draft.
 
BBert said:
Is that every time the player touches the ball?
Click to expand...
I'm pretty sure it is every time a possession is "finished" by a player. So any time a player makes a basket, has an assist, a turnover, or goes to the foul line.
 
Rastapopoulos said:
Am I alone in being totally okay with Norm leaving? He won't be worth the contract he gets and people will immediately start bitching about it. And he didn't turn us into a contender, he turned us from maybe a 7 seed into a 6 seed. Everyone seems to think he'll be worth it just as soon as we get rid of CJ, but CJ is a better shooter, better dribbler, better passer, and Norm's defense isn't half what it's cut out to be (except in patches - he's like a streak defender). There's a reason he never became a full-time starter in Toronto.

Plus CJ's not going anywhere. I have yet to see one remotely plausible trade idea for CJ. (Also: the number of people who (a) think Norm > CJ and (b) think nonetheless that the team that gave us Norm will gladly swap their core frontcourt player for CJ is not the zero it should be.)

Yes, I get it: if he goes, we're still over the cap, so keep him, right? Well, I'd prefer to give his minutes to Nas and Anfernee (who actually outperformed him in many measures). Maybe if he was five inches taller he'd be a really solid SF. But he isn't.

I'm hoping for a sign-and-trade, myself.
Click to expand...


If C.J. is such a better dribbler, why is Norm so much better at getting to the rim? As far as I see, C.J. uses his handles to get himself jumpers and floaters and that's pretty much the extent of its usefulness.
 
Paine Tablet said:
If C.J. is such a better dribbler, why is Norm so much better at getting to the rim? As far as I see, C.J. uses his handles to get himself jumpers and floaters and that's pretty much the extent of its usefulness.
Click to expand...

Strength plays a big role at getting to the rim. Norm has strength and length on CJ, which probably give him more confidence to finish.

Ant is the dunk champion and his weakness prevents him from attacking the rim effectively as well.
 
B-Roy said:
Pretty interesting but CJ Elleby has been working out with Norman Powell since the season ended. They've been together almost every day at least from their IGs. He also responded "more work to be done" or something similar to the Blazers posting about him. Seems like he likes it here quite a bit. If they don't fuck with him in negotiations I think he's ours to lose.
Click to expand...
Damn you, getting my hopes up!
I REALLY want us to re-sign Norm.
 
tester551 said:
The order of transactions does not matter. Everything is based on the cap situation at the end of the season.

Play on this website for a while: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/portland-trail-blazers/cap/2021/

For this '21-'22 Season, the Cap is currently projected to be $112M with the Lux Tax line being at $136.6M
https://bleacherreport.com/articles...xury-tax-reportedly-set-for-2021-2024-seasons

By my calcs, the Hard Cap will be ~$141.5 M. If Hard Capped, the team must stay below the number at all times for the entire season - no exceptions.

Current Cap Scenario
Dame - $39.3M
CJ - $30.8M
RoCo - $13.0M
Nurk - $12.0M (Portland will guarantee this contract)
DJJ - $9.7M (Assuming he'll opt into this contract)
Ant - $3.9M
Little - $2.3M
Elleby - $1.5M
Nicholson - $2.8M (dead cap space)
$115.3M for 8 players (which is already above the cap line)

Tools available to sign players
Bi-Annual Exception - $3.6M -> (if used, will be hard capped)
MLE (~$10M) or Tax MLE (~$6M) -> if the Full $10M MLE is used, the team is hard capped
Sign & Trade -> If receiving the FA player via S&T, the team is hard capped
Bird Exceptions -> Allows us to resign our own FA to new deals
Rookie Contracts -> Portland doesn't have any picks this draft...
Minimum Contracts -> Each one has ~$1.8M cap hit

Scenario Planning
Option A (go 'all in' with the current players)
+ Resign Powell @ $20M/yr (Bird Exception)
+ Resign Collins @ $7M/yr (Bird Exception)
+ Resign Kanter @ $5M/yr (Bird Exception)
+ Let everyone else walk
= ~$148M in salary for 11 players. Since Portland is over the Hard Cap, we'd only have the Tax MLE and Min Contracts available to fill out the remaining 4 roster positions.
Total Team Payroll would be ~$158M (with an additional ~$85M tax bill)
Paying $250M on a first round exit team is not a smart decision....

Option B (the FA play)
+ Resign Collins @ $7M/yr (Bird Exception)
+ Resign Kanter @ $5M/yr (Bird Exception)
+ Let everyone else walk
= ~$128M in salary for 10 players. Portland would be within $14M of the Hard Cap (with 4-5 roster spots to fill). Assuming Portland only caries 14 players on the roster, Portland could sign 3 players to Min Contracts. That would only allow Portland to use part of the normal MLE and sign someone up to ~$8M. IF Portland decides to let Kanter or Collins walk, we could possibly use the FULL MLE ($10M) and the Bi Annual Exceptions ($3.6M) to sign new players.
Total Team Payroll would be ~$141M (with an additional ~$20M tax bill)


Conclusion
This summer is going to be very disappointing to most fans. Portland will be stuck in Cap Hell with very few options for improvements. I'd anticipate that they are targeting someone with the Tax MLE ($6M) and Min Contracts in FA.
Click to expand...

This is a good summary, but a few nuances:

1.) Norm can sign a 4/80 but start at 17.8 with the standard 8% raises
2.) Hard cap will be around 143M

If we just re-sign Norm, we will be at ~133M with 9 players guaranteed. Need to fill out 5 roster spots to get to the minimum 14 players on the roster. My guess is Kanter won't command more than the vet min, if they do sign him. Same with Collins. At the very least, the QO should be out of the picture for Collins. 7 Million for someone that can't give you any minutes next year should be a non-starter.

So that leaves 5 spots for the vet-min + Tax MLE. Vet minimums depend on how many years the player has been in the league, but the average salary is about ~2 million. If we just sign 5 vet minimum guys to fill out the roster that will put us at around ~143M which is the hard cap. The taxpayers MLE is about ~5.7M, so add 3.7 million on top of that if they decide to use the full taxpayer MLE. Brings us to a total of ~146M for 14 players in the scenario where we bring everyone back and use all of the tools available, which is the easiest (and maybe most likely?) route this off-season.

146M is well into the tax, but your tax numbers seem to be a bit off. The tax bill for a 146M roster should be the 10 million over the current 136M luxury tax thresh-hold which is around 7.5M for the first 5 million and 8.75 for the second 5 million, for a total bill of ~17 million. A lot for sure, but not approaching the crazy numbers that the Nets and Warriors hit this year. And certainly, this is the reality going forward with Dame on the super-max and CJ on a large extension. If they aren't planning on spending heavily into the tax they may well think about trading Dame at this point and starting over.

Of course all of this assumes moves are made in independently of each other. If we can move Jones into someone else's capspace, or Jones decides to opt out, that changes things significantly. We can even open up the full MLE at that point, which would be interesting. They can also make a move during the season to reduce their salary since the luxury tax is based on your team salary at the end of the season. In the doomsday scenario where we are out of the playoff picture by the trade deadline, we can maybe do some money saving moves by moving larger contracts for smaller ones.
 
LayneStaley said:
Powell has everything you want in a SG minus the clutch factor, he should be the starting 2 next year.
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In Powell's stint with the Blazers, he has been frustratingly anti-clutch.
 
illmatic99 said:
no surprise, but retaining him is the prerequisite to any subsequent CJ trades.

i don't like reading or speculating that tax is a concern, though. we all knew we would be in the tax this year. this is the year to go ALL IN.

Wonder if this is why dame is making noise? is ownership/management against spending all of a sudden?
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I think less on spending, more on making big moves.
 
illmatic99 said:
no surprise, but retaining him is the prerequisite to any subsequent CJ trades.

i don't like reading or speculating that tax is a concern, though. we all knew we would be in the tax this year. this is the year to go ALL IN.

Wonder if this is why dame is making noise? is ownership/management against spending all of a sudden?
Click to expand...
All of a sudden? It's been my impression they've prioritized being frugal even in Paul's final years.
 
BBert said:
All of a sudden? It's been my impression they've prioritized being frugal even in Paul's final years.
Click to expand...
they had the highest payroll in the league in 2019-20 and even paid tax. Was the 4th highest in 18-19.

i always figured the desperate push this past year to get UNDER the tax was so that we wouldn't be a repeater this year and exacerbate the tax burden in a season when we would inevitably be big spenders ( ie., Dame contract kicking in, etc).
 
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