I think that to say Cronin is prepping for the ‘28/‘29 draft all the way in ‘23/‘24 would be an extreme stretch. Could Cronin, and Schmitz (more likely) be aware of a class that might be very good in those two years? Sure. But for the most part, GMs do not plan four years ahead (especially for the draft) because most do not last that long, especially if you are the GM on a losing team. No matter how great the plan is, there’s a high likelihood that your plan is going to be carried out by your successor. Some GMs might plan for a big FA in a few years, but not the draft. Some things just happen by accident. In the ‘22 NFL draft, which happened to have really good defensive players, the Chiefs rebuilt an entire defense that had spent the majority of their existence near the bottom of the league in defense to now being a top 3 defense for the foreseeable future. The reason that it was possible was because they were forced to trade their star receiver who is arguably one of the three best in the league. It was something they didn’t plan on, just a happy coincidence. In our case, any team that was going to trade for Dame was going to be a contender. Most contenders already had obligations on their earlier picks, meaning the only ones available would’ve been ones towards the end of the decade. I personally did not know ‘28/‘29 had stacked classes, I had heard that ‘26/‘27 classes are going to be really good and ‘24/‘25 aren’t going to be very good. So are you right? Or am I? Or are we both right, and there’s just going to be a crazy crop of talent that comes in between ‘26-‘29 classes? Who knows. But that’s why I’m thinking that this is more of a happy coincidence than anything, assuming that is even true. The only way we’ll know if Cronin and Schmitz are actually seriously looking into ‘28/‘29 is if the picks from a Grant/Ant/Brogdon trade are specifically in ‘28/‘29 and not earlier like say ‘25-‘27.
I agree that by going out 5-6 years Portland is trying to get past the career path of the really good teams best players. The under estimated value of what Cronin did was getting unprotected pick swaps. One pic swap could be worth more than all of their first round picks because what if they could swap into a top one or two pick. I would be just as happy to see some trades to obtain unprotected pick swaps as I would protected number one draft choices. The goal is to get at the top of the draft. What if in 2030 we can swap our number 23 pick the first round for the number one pick from Milwaukee, who happened to win the lottery with their poor record that year. I’m old enough to remember the Lakers trading an old Gail Goodridge in1978 to the New Orleans Jazz for their number one pick years later. Then they traded Mark Landsberger to the Cleveland Cavaliers for their number one pick a couple of years later. Both of those draft choices turned out to be the number one picks in the draft. In 1980 the Lakers, drafted Magic Johnson, then two years later, James Worthy. They won five rings with that group in the 80s.
https://syndication.bleacherreport....dictions-and-round-1-pro-comparisons.amp.html I’m not at all familiar with John Wasserman’s opinions, he’s just kind of been a name I’ve heard since the early B/R days. But he has Nikola Topic all the way at #2 in the draft (!!) This really just shows just how inconclusive this class really is.
I know he is not really a wing, but I will be monitoring this prospect as well: Stephon Castle 6’6 barefoot/6’7 in shoes 6’9 wingspan 205lbs It’s important to note that none of the measurements will be confirmed until the combine. If he measures between 6’6-6’7 at the combine, he’s a serious player to look at for this team. It’s hard not to like his game. Castle is in the mold of Dyson Daniels, Anthony Black, Jalen Williams, guys in recent drafts who would be categorized as a big guard. He isn’t particularly long, but is tall and has a strong lower body, similar to Shae. His smoothness and change of pace is also so similar to Shae. Castle isn’t going to be an All NBA defender, but he is going to be a very good defender who can guard players bigger than him, like Shae. I don’t think he’s going to be a great shooter, but I think he will have years where we is near 40% on high volume from 3. He also plays just as well off the ball as on the ball, so he is going to not only be a guy that can play with Scoot, but also be a great secondary decision maker and ball handler on the floor. I’ve been thinking about guys who would be great to pair with Shae. Would I prefer a pairing of Shae and one of the Thompson twins over Shae and Castle? Yes, because I believe Shae and a twin would be so overwhelming athletically, that combined with Shae’s potential to become a scorer, would overmatch most wing duos on both sides of the floor. But Castle and Shae would have the potential to be much better offensively sooner, and still be pretty good defensively. The best way for me to describe their potential is that Castle will raise the team’s floor, and the eventual development of Shae and Scoot will raise the team’s ceiling.
The case for taking Stephon Castle over Ron Holland and Justin Edwards, despite us needing a wing or big: I have not liked what I’ve seen from either guy much at all. We will have to see the combine results, but I’d have an easier time on betting that Castle is closer to 6’7 barefoot than Holland is to 6’8 barefoot (there’s a couple clips of them matched up in the video). If the difference is height is that small, I going with Castle because I think he is going to end up doing most things better than Holland, mainly shooting, playmaking, and dictating the pace of the game. If Sarr/Buzelis/Riascher are gone, I’m not sure if I would pick any other forward or big, I would just bank on Shae and Steph sharing the duties between SG and SF, and find a 6’9-6’10 PF compliment them defensively. There is going to be a glut of big men in the range of the Warriors pick between Clingan, Ware, Filipowski, Mara, and Almansa. Smith is someone I would be excited about with the Hornets 2nd, and Bradshaw could be anywhere in the that range.
Can't draft for position until you have an established All-NBA caliber player. Taking a guy with less upside because of other guys on the team who might be stars down the line is a mistake. It's harder to find a superstar than it is to find role or complimentary players.
I take it to mean you’re in agreement that Castle should be considered over Holland or Edwards if the obvious (Sarr, Buzelis, Riascher) are gone? I just don’t see other forwards worthy of a high lotto pick right now. There’s also too big of a gap between Sarr and the rest of the bigs for me to consider Clingan or any of the other bigs. Man, this year is a crapshoot. I’d rather gamble on Baba Miller’s potential with the Hornets, or maybe even Hawks 2nd than drafting Edwards at the top.
Some notes regarding our own lotto pick: Diving into more on this class, I’m still very excited about it, but f’ing this up will have serious consequences on the future. We can all find players we ‘like’ every draft cycle and we can be fixated on that singular player, I realize that. This year, we have plenty of four shots at different ranges in the draft, we are good on ‘24 draft picks. 1) Sarr, for obvious reasons, the news of his arrival would change life on this team 2) Buzelis, even if you don’t think he can be a superstar, there are so many skills to point to that make me think he can be a great third star 3A) Risacher, I’ve heard some scouts say they like Risacher more than Buzelis, but I’ve seen more tape on Buzelis 3B) Castle, might be my third favorite prospect right now, even though he’s more of a combo guard. I’m just hoping that he will measure out to be 6’7 in shoes, but I see him being a better version of Dyson Daniels on offense, while still having the defensive potential. Depending on his measurements, I might have him above Risacher. Outside of that, it’s so hard to justify being excited about anyone else with our own lotto pick. Collier will be near the top of the board but he isn’t going to be someone we target. If those five guys are gone and we have yet to pick, my projection for the rest of draft night becomes bleak. I’m going to be paying close attention to what happened during the ‘13 and ‘00 drafts this year to try and bring some informed insight, eventually. The talent pool is so undefined right now that I wouldn’t rule out looking at some of these 6’6-6’7 PGs like Nikola Topic over a SF prospect like Holland or Edwards. How much better is Edwards (projected top 10 still by most, I think) than Cody Williams (who is kind of all over the place but mainly between 15-20)? I have no idea right now.
@BonesJones @hoopsjock @bxb @MrDraftGuy Whoever else that’s been following any prospects, feel free to reply as well, Does anyone have a clear top 5 for your version of OUR big board yet? Meaning, take out Collier who is only 6’4. I struggle finding a fifth guy that I would be happy with taking if the first four are gone. I also haven’t paid attention to many prospects outside of the ones I already like. Any insight or suggestions on guys to pay attention to would be great.
Im right there with you on Sarr, Buzelis, Risacher, Castle, & Topic I do like Ryan Dunn for the GSW pick. Klintman is intriguing. So are Shephard & Ighodaro. But none of these guys are top 8 guys
I know I’m posting a lot on this thread, lol. Another point also to think about, fit also has to matter, we gotta learn from the mistakes of other franchises. Look at a team like Detroit. They have been bad for a very long time. They’ve drafted a lot of pieces. Lot of whiffs, but also a lot of individual pieces I like (Ausar, Duren, Ivey, Cunningham). None of these pieces have fit. I follow the NBA Draft subreddit, and there’s a current thread called “how do you currently feel about Cade Cunningham?” There’s comments about his lack of separation still and stuff like that, all of which are due to his limitations as a player. But they’ve also done nothing to help him with these issues—Ivey, Ausar, these are talented players, but none of them can shoot. The fact that Stewart is the best shooter to come out of their crop of drafted talent is a HUGE concern. Use Detroit as a precautionary tale. We have guys like Scoot already, who we project to do a lot of great things, but shooting won’t be one of them. Shae is going to be a good shooter eventually, once he develops into a better player and isn’t relied upon for 40mpg. DA is a good mid range shooter and hardly considered a liability outside the paint, but is not a 3pt shooter. That means that on draft night, positional need be damned, we have to pick the right FITS. That means if Schmitz doesn’t think Holland can become a good 3pt shooter, PLEASE do not draft him. If Edwards can’t show to be a good 3pt shooter by the end of the college season, he better be a combination of a great playmaker, defender, or scorer, or else he is no good on this team. Holland and Edwards are just buzz-names from the the summer before. I remember watching Shabazz Muhammed’s “#1 pick mixtape” and saw him fall to 15 in the ‘13 draft. There isn’t a clear division in the talent pool to consider drafting for talent, need will be a bigger emphasis this year than BPA imo.
Hmm, I’m going to have to watch some clips on Topic. I wouldn’t be surprised if Holland and Castle are really close to the same size. This year, I’m more open to taking a “big PGs” who could potentially guard wings. You could say that seeing Sharpe play against bigger guys this year has up’d my confidence in this. Outside of Sarr (who no one expects to be a primary decision maker with the ball), it would really be hard for me to justify drafting a guy who can’t at least initiate the offense some of the time, with our lotto pick. The second dinger would be an inability to shoot. So that already knocks Holland and Edwards off my radar for a top 5 pick.
The intrigue on Cody Williams just popped back up. These highlight clips kind of shows a little bit of everything that he can do right now. I think a lot of people cooled their excitement on him after the McDonalds AM game but he’s looks fairly solid so far. 19.6yo on draft night. Looks like a true 6’8 and has long arms. 11.2/3.6/2.4/1.0/0.4 on .583/.429/.647 He hasn’t made more than one 3 in any game, and he averages 2to’s, so he still has plenty of flaws. But depending on his development through the rest of the season, I might have Cody higher than Ron on draft night. Cody might crack the end of the lotto still.
Oh my God, that first clip had be hyped. I’ll be paying more attention to this guy. 7’1 wingspan is night, he kind of looks like a Deandre Hunter or Kobe Brown kind of player.
I’ve just done a shallow dive on Nikola Topic, here are my thoughts. The good: - great physical profile, apparently measured at 6’6 without shoes with a 7’0 wingspan at Basketball Without Borders. That’s legit SF size. - He’s like, lightning quick. I’ve read that he could probably clock a 4.3second 40y - He looks like someone who is going to be a great PG. With his size to see over defenses like Luka, I wouldn’t be surprised if he looks like Luka as a rookie when passing the ball. The bad: - I wouldn’t particularly say he’s a great passer right now. He’s a player who is still learning to process the game. He has great size and is playing with grown men, I don’t think decision making will be a problem long term. - He is not a great shooter. When we already have Scoot to worry about as a shooter, I don’t like the prospect of bringing in another rookie who’s a liability to shoot. His percentages are with the likes of the twins from 3. - This guy is never going to be able to play off the ball, imo. With his quickness, you’d love for him to learn to cut, but he’s played with the ball in his hands the majority of his life. Conclusion: While he is an interesting prospect, he would not be the right fit for this team. A team like Washington should pounce on this guy. A team like the Spurs, who might be better sooner than they thought, has to seriously consider a guy like this. SA is going to eventually stop f’ing around with experiments like Sochan at PG—trying nonsensical things like that instead of bringing in a real PG will stunt Wemby’s development. But he isn’t someone that I see being able to play off the ball. That, combined with the jumper, and no formed conclusion on his defensive potential, I’d pass on him, especially in the top 5. We would be much better off drafting a player like Castle if we are looking to draft a PG/SG/SF kind of player.
i like Sarr, but i feel like somehow the NBA is going to send him to the Spurs to pair with you know who.
At first, I thought about this possibility. Yeah, in the grand scheme of things, it would just suck if the Spurs got both Wemby AND Sarr. I just don’t think the chances that they even take him, given the chance, are not as high as you would think. Sarr is definitely #1 on our board, but not a lock to be #1 on all boards by any means. Sarr looks like he could be a hybrid of Mobley/JJJ. To me, that sounds like a #1 prospect, but he isn’t being treated as such in the media. So Sarr doesn’t seem like a sure thing. When the Spurs already have Wemby and a very manageable salary in Collins, I just can’t see the Spurs justify picking Sarr. The only reason to do this would be if SA believes one of them will become strong enough to play full time C in a couple of seasons. Wemby is showing that his development is ahead of schedule. The Spurs are going to be competing sooner than they thought, and at some point, they’re going to have to stop with the goofy stuff like playing Sochan at PG. The Spurs are going to need a real PG to actually help Wemby develop, and that means to trade for someone or draft a PG at the top. Topic is a 6’7 PG who should be a PnR maestro as soon as he gets here—I’m not sure I could pass on him or Castle over Sarr, even if the ceiling with Sarr is higher. I know drafting for need would go against even my own drafting philosophies. But that’s my feeling on SA right now. Honestly, in the Eurohub that is SA, Topic should be their #1 target. Unless I’m confident Collier can be my franchise PG, I might grab Topic over Collier.
Feel the same. Unless Sarr really takes a step forward and the Spurs are drafting ahead of the Blazers, I think SA is looking at one of a couple of PGs or the best shooter with their pick, not a guy similar to Wemby when they already also have Collins and Sochan.
