Don't trade the pick

[Trailblazers76]

Imagine three years from now seeing Scoot/Miller/whoever becoming a superstar on another team. While we're stuck with regret adding another name to the list of legends we passed on drafting. And for what?

Say we trade the pick for a low end all-star then what? We have a three year window of mid-seed playoff appearances and our shitty defense doing us in every time. And with Dame on the floor the defense will be shitty. It starts with your best player, if he can't defend the rest will follow.

I love Dame, but building around a scoring point guard that can't defend doesn't work. How many volume scoring PG's win championships? Steph is the only one and that's because he's played with 2/3 likely hall of famers his whole career, and he's a decent defender, and his teams have been good defensively, with a ton of great role players. The Blazers have none of that and they wont in the next few years.

The Blazers will not be contenders in Dame's prime. We aren't getting Giannis or any top ten player for this pick so why bother?

The only path to a championship is the old fashioned way. Building a team through the draft. Wasting a top 3 pick for nothing will bite us in the ass.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

They need to get two starting level players.

If they wrangle Bridges and Claxton or Siakam and OG, they'll be pretty competitive with room to get better. Shaedon, Claxton and even Bridges can continue to push their ceilings.

I think the conversation is a little different with Scoot available.

 

[inconceivable]

Imagine three years from now seeing Scoot/Miller/whoever becoming a superstar on another team. While we're stuck with regret adding another name to the list of legends we passed on drafting. And for what?

Say we trade the pick for a low end all-star then what? We have a three year window of mid-seed playoff appearances and our shitty defense doing us in every time. And with Dame on the floor the defense will be shitty. It starts with your best player, if he can't defend the rest will follow.

I love Dame, but building around a scoring point guard that can't defend doesn't work. How many volume scoring PG's win championships? Steph is the only one and that's because he's played with 2/3 likely hall of famers his whole career, and he's a decent defender, and his teams have been good defensively, with a ton of great role players. The Blazers have none of that and they wont in the next few years.

The Blazers will not be contenders in Dame's prime. We aren't getting Giannis or any top ten player for this pick so why bother?

The only path to a championship is the old fashioned way. Building a team through the draft. Wasting a top 3 pick for nothing will bite us in the ass.

iverson was close. i think dame will be ok with brandon miller if the alternative (trade) does not return good value for us.

someone mentioned tatum's rookie year was brown's 2nd year, led by kyrie went to ECF, lost to lebron's cavs. .

dame
sharpe
grant
miller
upgrade at center, brook lopez (FA)
ant as 6th man
thybulle
solid backup big, jakob poeltl (FA)

is a rotation i can support

 

[SIeepwalker]

Great initiative to create this thread

 

[Rastapopoulos]

The only reason to trade the pick is if you're a fucking coward who doesn't believe you can tell which young player is going to become a good NBA player. Otherwise you get a shot at a much better player than anyone will give you for the pick, who may be up to ten years younger and locked up in a bargain contract for years, who will never be identified with another team, so your fans will love him unconditionally. Ask yourself one question: would the Spurs trade a #3 pick? Of course fucking not.

Your job as GM is not to make any single player happy (that's the job of his obscene contract), or to keep your job in the short term, it's to do what's best for the team LONG TERM. And that's so obviously to use the pick that it doesn't bear discussion.

 

[BankTeller]

The only reason to trade the pick is if you're a fucking coward who doesn't believe you can tell which young player is going to become a good NBA player. Otherwise you get a shot at a much better player than anyone will give you for the pick, who may be up to ten years younger and locked up in a bargain contract for years, who will never be identified with another team, so your fans will love him unconditionally. Ask yourself one question: would the Spurs trade a #3 pick? Of course fucking not.

Your job as GM is not to make any single player happy (that's the job of his obscene contract), or to keep your job in the short term, it's to do what's best for the team LONG TERM. And that's so obviously to use the pick that it doesn't bear discussion.

I agree with your premise but using the Spurs isn't a fair comparison.

The Spurs have ZERO franchise players, whereas the Blazers have Dame who could possibly win something with immediate help. The Spurs trading #3 for anyone would not drastically change their future or present, but it could change our present. I've always been on the "don't trade the pick" train as well, I just felt the need to reply to this due to the overly aggressive tone lol.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I agree with your premise but using the Spurs isn't a fair comparison.

The Spurs have ZERO franchise players, whereas the Blazers have Dame who could possibly win something with immediate help.

Have you heard of "hopium"? Because this is the lie that people keep telling themselves. Unless the "something" is maybe one playoff game, or the "immediate help" is the players on the team we trade him to, this just ain't happening. Besides, if we were really going for it, do you think we'd stick with Chauncey as our coach?

Cronin's got to know this, so if he does actually trade the pick, it's not because he believes it will do us any good, it's because he believes it will stop him getting fired for maybe a year or two.

 

[TBpup]

I was going to create this same thread. Not only do I believe they should not trade the pick, young players (Ant) and likely future picks for a player/players that most likely don't get them to contender status, it would also crush this teams cap space and make an ACTUAL rebuild even harder.

Say they get the oft mention Siakam or Brown. One year from now, they will be due a massive raise. We would add $40,000,000+ per year on top of Dame's $48,000,000 per year for, in Siakam's case, 2 players that would be 30 and 34. And I don't believe it would suddenly vault us into legit contender status.

The Blazers are not a player away. They are 137-173 over the last 4 seasons. Maybe throw in a few more wins if they aren't purposely tanking at the end of a couple of those seasons, but they were tanking because they were not good. We aren't going to be able to surround Dame with the type of talent he had when LA, Batum, Wes and Lopez were here because Dame was on a Rookie scale contract at that time. It's unfortunate it worked out this way, but sometimes the timing just isn't good. Dame is now wanting to play with players that will help him win. He should have demanded this back in 2018 after they were swept by the #6 seed Pelicans. It is now too late.

Do NOT mortgage the future of this franchise!! I'm a huge Dame fan, but a Blazer fan first. I don't believe it is in the best interest of the team to try to build around a player who will be 33 next season given the team we already have here and the assets available. I know, Dame has been loyal, but for that loyalty, he has received $451, 772,802 in NBA salary and last year alone, and additional $16,.,000,000 in endorsements. It's not like he has stayed in in a situation that was not exceedingly lucrative for him. And good for him, get what you can get while you can.

But that doesn't mean hurting the long-term future of the team by chasing something that is extremely unlikely to happen. Clippers brought in Kawhi and PG-13....it did get them to one WCF, but oddly enough, without Leonard and they have never been the contender many thought they would be. Brooklyn brought in KD, Simmons and Kyrie....that didn't go well at all. Phoenix brought in KD to add to Booker, but in doing so, gutted the team of young wings and future Draft picks....and they flamed out and it got their coach fired. Even the Lakers, bringing in AD to join LeBron. If not for the Bubble where both players had months off to then play a very short schedule and get through the Playoffs, I don't believe there is any way they win that if they have to play the whole season.

Dame's legacy may be that the best thing he did for the Blazers to help them rebuild, is by the assets he can bring to the team. If he really wants to be here and win a championship, get assets here, let them build and grow, then come back at 37 and join a team that has young talent that has matured and is all in their mid-20s. He could come in and be Yoda to their Luke. That might be the best way to get him a rink in Portland....and in would be a storybook finish.

 

[RonBrewer]

If only you experts could see behind the door and see what offers we are receiving. How many times can you say the same shit over and over again?

If they think they can get some pieces that will put us in the upper 8 teams, then i'm all in.

Dame has gotten everything he deserves and hopefully continues to.

 

[STOMP]

iverson was close. i think dame will be ok with brandon miller if the alternative (trade) does not return good value for us. someone mentioned tatum's rookie year was brown's 2nd year, led by kyrie went to ECF, lost to lebron's cavs. .

dame, sharpe, grant, miller
upgrade at center, brook lopez (FA)
ant as 6th man, thybulle, solid backup big, jakob poeltl (FA)

is a rotation i can support

Capped out, Portland has no realistic way of offering a competitive contract to Lopez or Poeltl.

STOMP

 

[Pinwheel1]

I think the conversation is a little different with Scoot available.

I agree there is a difference. My guess is that Scoot has the potential to be great and Miller has the potential to be good.
Which is why I think it is a different discussion on whether or not to trade the pick. (and a different discussion on the return)

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I agree there is a difference. My guess is that Scoot has the potential to be great and Miller has the potential to be good.
Which is why I think it is a different discussion on whether or not to trade the pick. (and a different discussion on the return)

The descriptions of Miller all basically seem to come to "high floor, low ceiling".

 

[Natebishop3]

The descriptions of Miller all basically seem to come to "high floor, low ceiling".

Sounds like Keegan Murray.

 

[wizenheimer]

The descriptions of Miller all basically seem to come to "high floor, low ceiling".

well, if that's the case and Scoot has the issues of shooting, defense, and ball control some analysts see, then maybe this is a one person draft after all

....meaning that Blazers considering trading the pick isn't as bad a bet as many are claiming

 

[tykendo]

Imagine three years from now seeing Scoot/Miller/whoever becoming a superstar on another team. While we're stuck with regret adding another name to the list of legends we passed on drafting. And for what?

Say we trade the pick for a low end all-star then what? We have a three year window of mid-seed playoff appearances and our shitty defense doing us in every time. And with Dame on the floor the defense will be shitty. It starts with your best player, if he can't defend the rest will follow.

I love Dame, but building around a scoring point guard that can't defend doesn't work. How many volume scoring PG's win championships? Steph is the only one and that's because he's played with 2/3 likely hall of famers his whole career, and he's a decent defender, and his teams have been good defensively, with a ton of great role players. The Blazers have none of that and they wont in the next few years.

The Blazers will not be contenders in Dame's prime. We aren't getting Giannis or any top ten player for this pick so why bother?

The only path to a championship is the old fashioned way. Building a team through the draft. Wasting a top 3 pick for nothing will bite us in the ass.

Imagine three years from now, and Scoot & Miller are just a decent NBA players. You put the franchise back even further , and the Blazers are decades from being relevant again. Way to go . A rebuild can take 10 years or longer, especially in the One & Done Era. But you were too impatient , and now you reap what you sow.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

well, if that's the case and Scoot has the issues of shooting, defense, and ball control some analysts see, then maybe this is a one person draft after all

....meaning that Blazers considering trading the pick isn't as bad a bet as many are claiming

Scoot has Marcus Smart potential on defense. What are we talking about here? He's going to be a star.

Miller is a Danny Granger/Michael Porter Jr. type player. Good, but not a franchise changer.

 

[RonBrewer]

Scoot has Marcus Smart potential on defense. What are we talking about here? He's going to be a star.

Miller is a Danny Granger/Michael Porter Jr. type player. Good, but not a franchise changer.

Miller is a stud and will absolutely be a franchise player

 

[TBpup]

Imagine three years from now, and Scoot & Miller are just a decent NBA players. You put the franchise back even further , and the Blazers are decades from being relevant again. Way to go . A rebuild can take 10 years or longer, especially in the One & Done Era. But you were too impatient , and now you reap what you sow.

We have been 'rebuilding' for 10 years already.

 

[Bingo Bango]

Imagine three years from now seeing Scoot/Miller/whoever becoming a superstar on another team. While we're stuck with regret adding another name to the list of legends we passed on drafting. And for what?

Say we trade the pick for a low end all-star then what? We have a three year window of mid-seed playoff appearances and our shitty defense doing us in every time. And with Dame on the floor the defense will be shitty. It starts with your best player, if he can't defend the rest will follow.

I love Dame, but building around a scoring point guard that can't defend doesn't work. How many volume scoring PG's win championships? Steph is the only one and that's because he's played with 2/3 likely hall of famers his whole career, and he's a decent defender, and his teams have been good defensively, with a ton of great role players. The Blazers have none of that and they wont in the next few years.

The Blazers will not be contenders in Dame's prime. We aren't getting Giannis or any top ten player for this pick so why bother?

The only path to a championship is the old fashioned way. Building a team through the draft. Wasting a top 3 pick for nothing will bite us in the ass.

Great post. I agree 100%. Unless Cronin pulls off a miraculous trade (and nothing I’ve seen suggests he is capable of that), Portland is not an elite NBA team, and will not make it to the finals. There are simply too many holes to fill in one off-season. We had a nice run with Lillard but it’s time to exchange him for some great young assets while he still has trade value—and keep our #3 pick!

 

[wizenheimer]

Scoot has Marcus Smart potential on defense. What are we talking about here? He's going to be a star.
.

ok then....I can mark you down as a Scoot fan

you guys may be right about Scoot. I'm not buying the hype at this point, but maybe I'm wrong not to

I just remember all the guards who were going to be NBA stars according to pre-draft hype of course. Over the last 10 drafts:

Victor Oladipo
Dante Exum
D'Angelo Russell
Kris Dunn
Markelle Fultz
Coby White
Cade Cunnigham
Jalen Green
Jalen Suggs

there have been 2 or 3 triples and doubles, but also a lot of fouls and strikes

 

[Natebishop3]

ok then....I can mark you down as a Scoot fan

you guys may be right about Scoot. I'm not buying the hype at this point, but maybe I'm wrong not to

I just remember all the guards who were going to be NBA stars according to pre-draft hype of course. Over the last 10 drafts:

Victor Oladipo
Dante Exum
D'Angelo Russell
Kris Dunn
Markelle Fultz
Coby White
Cade Cunnigham
Jalen Green
Jalen Suggs

there have been 2 or 3 triples and doubles, but also a lot of fouls and strikes

I'm not sold on him yet. I need to do some of my own research. I was sold on Sharpe eventually, but it took a lot of time on youtube to get there.

 

[tykendo]

Great post. I agree 100%. Unless Cronin pulls off a miraculous trade (and nothing I’ve seen suggests he is capable of that), Portland is not an elite NBA team, and will not make it to the finals. There are simply too many holes to fill in one off-season. We had a nice run with Lillard but it’s time to exchange him for some great young assets while he still has trade value—and keep our #3 pick!

So in that scenario you are shafting Dame , because only the crappy teams have potential high draft capital. And most of them are in serious rebuilding mode. Doing right by him, is sending him to the good teams that he could put over the top . They are sending overpaid decent players back to make the numbers work, and end of 1st round draft capital because Dame is taking them to higher ground. Big pass on that one.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

ok then....I can mark you down as a Scoot fan

you guys may be right about Scoot. I'm not buying the hype at this point, but maybe I'm wrong not to

I just remember all the guards who were going to be NBA stars according to pre-draft hype of course. Over the last 10 drafts:

Victor Oladipo
Dante Exum
D'Angelo Russell
Kris Dunn
Markelle Fultz
Coby White
Cade Cunnigham
Jalen Green
Jalen Suggs

there have been 2 or 3 triples and doubles, but also a lot of fouls and strikes

Listing a bunch of unsuccessful players for comps for another player is what you can do for literally everyone. Even Michael Jordan. Doesn't mean much.

Yes, I believe in Scoot. But if Portland is adamant about keeping Dame (which they are), then they deserve a king's ransom for a potential franchise point guard. I would be okay with a combination of Bridges/Claxton or Siakam/OG.

Will also take Brown should Boston fall.

 

[tykendo]

Listing a bunch of unsuccessful players for comps for another player is what you can do for literally everyone. Even Michael Jordan. Doesn't mean much.

Yes, I believe in Scoot. But if Portland is adamant about keeping Dame (which they are), then they deserve a king's ransom for a potential franchise point guard. I would be okay with a combination of Bridges/Claxton or Siakam/OG.

Will also take Brown should Boston fall.

I agree with your value of that 3rd pick. You don't get the 3rd pick in a draft, that has been said that the top 3 are the real thing, for a cup of coffee and a biscuit to be named later. That pick is worth a ransom, if Scoot & Miller are as good as people are saying.

 

[wizenheimer]

We have been 'rebuilding' for 10 years already.

"rebuilding" means keeping and using your picks. It doesn't mean trading four first round picks for Afflalo, RoCo, and Nance. Or wasting full-MLE signings on Derrick Jones and Gary Payton (or Spenser Hawes). Or making max contract offers to Roy Hibbert, Enes Kanter, Greg Monroe, Chandler Parsons, and Hassan Whiteside

Portland did not rebuild at any time during the Olshey era. What they did was turn the keys to the team over to an ego-blind idiot GM who was determined to straddle every fucking fence in sight while being head-over-heels in love with marginally talented CJ while not once trying to build a team around Dame; not one time. Olshey didn't rebuild or retool...he just regurgitated.

 

[tykendo]

Listing a bunch of unsuccessful players for comps for another player is what you can do for literally everyone. Even Michael Jordan. Doesn't mean much.

Yes, I believe in Scoot. But if Portland is adamant about keeping Dame (which they are), then they deserve a king's ransom for a potential franchise point guard. I would be okay with a combination of Bridges/Claxton or Siakam/OG.

Will also take Brown should Boston fall.

In other words, those hauls you list should have potential for being completed.

 

[tykendo]

"rebuilding" means keeping and using your picks. It doesn't mean trading four first round picks for Afflalo, RoCo, and Nance. Or wasting full-MLE signings on Derrick Jones and Gary Payton (or Spenser Hawes). Or making max contract offers to Roy Hibbert, Enes Kanter, Greg Monroe, Chandler Parsons, and Hassan Whiteside

Portland did not rebuild at any time during the Olshey era. What they did was turn the keys to the team over to an ego-blind idiot GM who was determined to straddle every fucking fence in sight while being head-over-heels in love with marginally talented CJ while not once trying to build a team around Dame; not one time. Olshey didn't rebuild or retool...he just regurgitated.

Well said.

 

[wizenheimer]

Listing a bunch of unsuccessful players for comps for another player is what you can do for literally everyone. Even Michael Jordan. Doesn't mean much.

Yes, I believe in Scoot. But if Portland is adamant about keeping Dame (which they are), then they deserve a king's ransom for a potential franchise point guard. I would be okay with a combination of Bridges/Claxton or Siakam/OG.

Will also take Brown should Boston fall.

I was just attempting to show that people claiming future star status for players in pre-draft hype has a lot of misses. Why should I not be skeptical about Scoot?

I do agree that Portland should place a high value on the 3rd pick. But what if all the workouts convince teams you're right, especially Charlotte, and they take Scoot? Further, what if those same workouts convince teams Brandon Miller is overrated and has that low ceiling people are talking about? In a 2-player draft, how much value does the 3rd pick have?

 

[Sheldon Shape]

I was just attempting to show that people claiming future star status for players in pre-draft hype has a lot of misses. Why should I not be skeptical about Scoot?

I do agree that Portland should place a high value on the 3rd pick. But what if all the workouts convince teams you're right, especially Charlotte, and they take Scoot? Further, what if those same workouts convince teams Brandon Miller is overrated and has that low ceiling people are talking about? In a 2-player draft, how much value does the 3rd pick have?

You should be skeptical of any player coming into the draft.

I actually think Amen should get some consideration at #3 with Miller should Scoot be off the board.

 

[e_blazer]

I have to agree with Aaron Fentress:

Aaron J. Fentress @AaronJFentress
The Trail Blazers would have a better shot at winning a title by going all in and acquiring two impact players now than they would by trading Damian Lillard and hoping that a bunch of kids develop into championship-caliber stars. And, they remain in Portland.