Is it too soon to talk about defensive rating?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Duckhook, Oct 24, 2022.

  1. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    If you want to compare apples to oranges, compare our average defensive rating(league ranking) from 2012-21 and compare it to our average defensive ranking from 2021-22. It's not improved.

    If you want to compare apples to apples, compare our defensive rating/ranking from when we aquired Powell to the end of that season (under Stotts) with the defensive rating/ranking (under Billups) before Dame got hurt and we started tanking. Again, no significant improvement.

    The data just does not back up what you predicted would happen and therefore doesn't back up the story you're attempting to present today.
     
  2. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Norm and RoCo didn't buy in, it was obvious. The play at home with that lineup was easily better than any defense they played at all the season before. On the road they played with the worst level of effort I've ever seen. Chauncey had to learn how to hold guys accountable while keeping them engaged, which I think he's figured out. Part of being a young coach and improving instead of being tenured, stubborn and stuck in your ways.
     
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  3. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    Again, you're telling a story, with your favorite buzz words that really don't mean anything: "accountable" "engaged" "effort". It's the same go to stuff with the data failed to meet your predictions.

    To clarify, I'm not saying being accountable, engaged, or giving effort doesn't matter. I'm saying people people see those things the way they want to, to help them win a debate. You and I have seen this first hand when people tried to over-state the shortcomings of guys like Whiteside (or even Nurk), the first card the play is "effort".
     
  4. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Ah so basically don't describe things that make a difference to a team and describe coaching without talking about coaching traits... how am I supposed to argue with you with zero vocabulary? I think all the vocabulary you just used means nothing. There, now reply!

    The coach felt the same why I did. What I've heard is the organization agreed. I provided numerous examples. Nothing else describes the drastic fall off between home and road last season.
     
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  5. BlazerBender

    BlazerBender SharpeShooter

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    Those things you are shrugging off directly effect the outcome. Those words you say mean nothing, mean everything.
    Where would Jordans stats be if he didn't give the effort he did?

    Take Shae for example. Whats the biggest thing that could hold him back? His height? His running style? Or could it be his desire to be great? His discipline to learn the game?
    Desire isnt measurable. But its probably the single most important word to to determine how his career will go. Will he put effort into learning the game? How much desire does he have to be great?
    You shrug these things off as inconsequential aNd they are everything. Roco had no desire to play billups ball and so he gave little effort into learning it.

    Not everything important to stats is quantifiable or measurable.
    Ive been reading this and im sorry man, but you are painting only half of a picture based on numbers. Numbers lie all the time.
    I 100% agree roco didnt buy into Billups system. But there isn't a stat to verify that. But “that” would effect all of his other stats except maybe minutes played.
    Just because there isn't a stat, doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
     
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2022
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  6. Fairly-Hard

    Fairly-Hard Former Member Gone New!

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    Guilty as Charged!
    I love what Nurkic can do. I really like it when he plays well.
    I see a lack of effort at times. I absolutely cannot back that up with any definitive metric or statistical evidence.

    I have been taken to task over this multiple times in game threads. Rightfully so most likely.
     
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  7. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    The words mean something, which is why I say "they matter".... The issue isn't if those things matter, the issue is not only are they near impossible to measure, they are things that people see to validate what they already believed.

    For example: If you thought CJ sucked, you'd be far more prone to come to the conclusion that he doesn't give great effort. If you thought CJ was an all-star level player, you'd be prone to think he gave great effort. So while CJ's effort is the same, one person would see it as poor, while the other would see it as great. Who is right?

    Another great example about preceived effort was in a book, I believe "The Undoing Project" by Michael Lewis. The study asked coaches to rate the effort of their players. There was a strong correlation between the players the coaches say gave the best effort and those who were the fastest. So they weren't really rating effort, they were falsely assigning effort, with results.

    This message board will say the Blazers effort on defense is bad when other teams shoot the ball really well against us. Last night though, when Houston got plenty of open threes, but only made 10% of them, the complaints about effort weren't there. Why? Houston missing open shots has nothing to do with the effort Portland was putting in on defense.
     
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2022
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  8. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    We ALL do this, not just you... the people who realize they do it are many steps ahead of those who think they are evaluating those types of things objectively.
     
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  9. BlazerBender

    BlazerBender SharpeShooter

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    I get what you are saying. But i think anyone watching the games could tell roco wasnt playing team ball.
    Ill go so far as to say i don't think he would have welcomed any rookie coach, regardless.

    Either way, there is no stat to measure it, but all of his stats are reflected by his attitude.
     
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  10. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    Personally, I'm not comfortable coming to that conclusion. This year, under a veteran coach, he's averaging 5pts/3rebs; the lowest production since his rookie year. I think it's possible he's on the decline of his career and/or the style of the NBA no longer matches his skill set.

    I think blaming effort/attitude/etc is the easy way out. I could be wrong though.
     
  11. BlazerBender

    BlazerBender SharpeShooter

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    You know that statement, “ a picture says a 1000 words?”

    Look up some of his facial expressions towards the coach and in general, during the games where the coach was trying to implement something.
    Yeah, it is hard to figure out someone else mindset and often we as humans are wrong, thinking everyone thinks the same.
    But with that said, some things are more obvious than others. Him not buying in fits that category to me.

    And yeah he is also on the decline so there is that. Maybe he thought the new system wasn't going to fit his aging timeline? :)
     
  12. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    I have heard the statement. My point is the 1000 words will be different for each person, and those words will be influenced by what they already thought of the subject.

    I'm not saying your wrong. I'm not even saying that if I was forced to take a side, we wouldn't come to the same conclusion. All I'm saying is arm-chair psychologist is something I try to stay away from (I have got sucked into it before) and I'm certainly not going to use my lack of a psychology degree to try and explain why the defense is significantly improved, despite the data saying otherwise.
     
  13. BlazerBender

    BlazerBender SharpeShooter

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    Perception is on the eye of the beholder.
    Always has been. Always will be.
    One has to weigh everything to have an informed opinion. Stats, eye test and storylines.
    Without all three considered, most opinions will be off base.
     
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  14. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    upload_2022-12-30_23-43-1.png


    * Note for those who are unware: The screenshot above does not include all 30 teams and is not meant to trick or confuse anyone. Blazers are 23rd according to NBA.com (same source at the 1st post in this thread).

    ** These rankings don't measure "accountability" "engagement" "effort".
     
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  15. blazerkor

    blazerkor Well-Known Member

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    This team is incredibly flawed defensively. From Dame and Ant starting together in the back court to Nurk starting as the C in a switching defense, not to mention no size on the bench. A last place ranking for defense wouldn't be surprising and a 23rd ranking is a pleasant surprise.

    With Dame, Ant, Grant and Nurk starting and not a really great bench it would seem that we are an offense first team that makes D a second or third priority. So as long as our offense is by far in first we should be on course to win a championship.
     
  16. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    Blazers have moved up a lot in defensive rating over the last 10 days. I believe they've also dropped pretty hard in Off Rtg during the same period of time.

    upload_2023-1-10_20-39-15.png
     
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  17. HailBlazers

    HailBlazers RIPcity

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    The reason Dame's playing "bad" this year is he's actually playing defense.
     
  18. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    Is Dame playing bad this year? 27/4/7... Points/Assists above his career average, the rebounds 0.2 below. Steals/blocks and shooting % almost the same as his career averages.
     
  19. Cugel

    Cugel Well-Known Member

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    Those are what are commonly referred to as "empty stats". Tonight was a perfect example.
     
  20. HailBlazers

    HailBlazers RIPcity

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    2/12 from three tonight. Most turnovers of his career.
     

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