NBA comps for draft picks

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illmatic99 said:
so... confirming my "lazy ass" characterization of that comp. gotcha.

There are far better comps of skinny dudes than a wing player who might be the best scorer in the game's history who plays nothing like Holmgren.
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You're overthinking it. KD doesn't get pushed around, and it's not because he's a great scorer. Dude didn't have Jae Crowder equivalents posting him up at will. Dude could still rebound. It's a foul to push someone anyways. The comparison is in the "too skinny" narrative and people overfocusing on it, not on play stay.
 
PCmor7 said:
There are conferences that have athletes who are more comparable to the athletes you're going to find in the NBA than others, and conferences that have a lot more of them.

Come on, Bones, you knew that point. You're better than this. Unless you legitimately think there are as many legitimate NBA prospects in the WCC as the ACC or the Big Ten or the SEC, in which case you'd be totally off your rocker.
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I'm tired of your condescension. You're the one trying to imply that there's conferences in college that are comparable to NBA basketball, while also taking "The WCC is good this year" as meaning its comparable to the NBA, which is obviously a complete misinterpretation. Guess what, no conference is comparable to the NBA. Most big conference teams have one, maybe two guys that'll play in the NBA. Plenty have none at all. So I don't know what the hell you're on about with the "you're better than this".
 
BonesJones said:
You're overthinking it. KD doesn't get pushed around, and it's not because he's a great scorer. Dude didn't have Jae Crowder equivalents posting him up at will. Dude could still rebound. It's a foul to push someone anyways. The comparison is in the "too skinny" narrative and people overfocusing on it, not on play stay.
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But KD did get pushed around for the first few years (by pushed around I mean backed down to a point that the PF could use a drop step or spin move or just get a point blank layup with Durant too far under the hoop to block it) and that's why they had him defending SGs. The reason why KD could do that was because he had and has elite athletic ability and while for a C Chet's feet aren't slow, he's not Keven Durant level quick or fast or Kevin Garnett level either (they had KG on small forwards for the first couple of seasons). He might be on the athletic level of early KP but I'm still not even sure he's that quick and fast, he might be a level below him.

I don't know all of this stuff for sure... I mean it's pretty obvious he's not the athletic freak that either KD or KG were/is but he might be on Porzingis' level or even better. Let's hope if we're in that range that we get him in for some really good workouts where our coaching staff and front office can evaluate that about him. It's also important that we get what he weighs at this point because if it's still 20 lbs lighter than KD and KG and 30 lbs lighter than KP, that's not a great sign unless he's showing better athletic ability than all of those guys. I just think that if I said that he was a for sure bust I would be jumping to a huge conclusion but I also think that those of you who shrug off his bust potential are jumping to a pretty big conclusion yourselves.
 
The game has changed. Can’t really pencil people into positions these days. The post up game is almost non existent.

Its not the mid 2000’s where every team had a legit 6’10” banger PF that they could throw the ball into and clear out.

It’s outside-in these days, instead of inside-out.
 
MickZagger said:
The game has changed. Can’t really pencil people into positions these days. The post up game is almost non existent.

Its not the mid 2000’s where every team had a legit 6’10” banger PF that they could throw the ball into and clear out.

It’s outside-in these days, instead of inside-out.
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that's very true, but unless an opponent has a couple of traditional PF's at the top of the rotation (which almost no team has), a forward absolutely needs to be able to defend both PF's and SF's. I just don't think it's credible that Holmgren can defend PG13, Kawhi, Butler, Tatum, Ingram, etc. Or even Giannis or Durant or Siakam. He's very likely going to have to float between PF & C, and there are very few guys like that having an elite impact
 
I am not an expert on this subject at all, but the NBA player I think Chet reminds me of would be Bol Bol.
Skilled, just not strong enough to do anything about it against NBA grown men.
I fear, as he currently is, he will get manhandled and foul out within 15 mins.
 
wizenheimer said:
that's very true, but unless an opponent has a couple of traditional PF's at the top of the rotation (which almost no team has), a forward absolutely needs to be able to defend both PF's and SF's. I just don't think it's credible that Holmgren can defend PG13, Kawhi, Butler, Tatum, Ingram, etc. Or even Giannis or Durant or Siakam. He's very likely going to have to float between PF & C, and there are very few guys like that having an elite impact
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Wade Garrett said:
I am not an expert on this subject at all, but the NBA player I think Chet reminds me of would be Bol Bol.
Skilled, just not strong enough to do anything about it against NBA grown men.
I fear, as he currently is, he will get manhandled and foul out within 15 mins.
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This is the problem I have, like @wizenheimer I don't think he has the speed to cover the better forwards in this league and like @Wade Garrett I don't think he has the strength to even float between PF & C because that means he's a post player and while he can definitely block shots and rebound he has to have the position to do those things which just like with his limited athleticism covering good perimeter players will be a problem for him, getting position in the post against even guys of average strength down there will probably be something very difficult.

Like I've said a bunch of times, he seems like he could be a lot of fun to watch if I'm wrong about the foot speed which is definitely possible but I sincerely doubt that I'm wrong about his strength. We'll just have to wait and see. People who break this down a lot more than I have who think he's the best prospect in the draft, despite the fact that I watched ten of his games his freshman year and have watched video of him in every game, I doubt I know more than them but if they're just shrugging these very real concerns about his possibly detrimental combination of lack or strength and average speed and quickness for an NBA center which is too slow for a modern PF by saying the NBA is now positionless, then I think the guy could be a real bust despite so many knowledgeable people thinking otherwise.
 
The concerns about Holmgren's strength (now and the future) by blazekor and others is more than reasonable. Holmgren's foot speed (IMHO) looks like it crosses the threshold for a PF. The guy just isn't a center. The best comp for Holmgren? A worse shooter and not as good on D ... is Pokusevsky for OKC. [Full disclosure: I hoped the Blazers would draft Poku.] Poku's upper body is likewise narrow but also has handles, passing, awareness; I figured he could work on his shot and D skills. However, based on movement both on D and in space, Poku has significantly better lower body strength. His gait looks good. Stronger. He'll have to work on core strength, overall, but he's showing some promise for OKC. Holmgren? The bust potential lingers around his name due to one significant factor. I still like him better than others except for Jabari Smith. Holmgren can become the "Star-version" [and much better rounded player] of Chris Bouche who did two things dang well for the Ducks -- block shots and hit corner 3's.
 
HoopsFanAZ said:
The concerns about Holmgren's strength (now and the future) by blazekor and others is more than reasonable. Holmgren's foot speed (IMHO) looks like it crosses the threshold for a PF. The guy just isn't a center. The best comp for Holmgren? A worse shooter and not as good on D ... is Pokusevsky for OKC. [Full disclosure: I hoped the Blazers would draft Poku.] Poku's upper body is likewise narrow but also has handles, passing, awareness; I figured he could work on his shot and D skills. However, based on movement both on D and in space, Poku has significantly better lower body strength. His gait looks good. Stronger. He'll have to work on core strength, overall, but he's showing some promise for OKC. Holmgren? The bust potential lingers around his name due to one significant factor. I still like him better than others except for Jabari Smith. Holmgren can become the "Star-version" [and much better rounded player] of Chris Bouche who did two things dang well for the Ducks -- block shots and hit corner 3's.
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Poku averages 7/5. Not what I’m looking for in a lottery pick
 
If OKC drafted Holmgren, is it more probable that they move on from Poku or try and play both guys? I wonder if OKC would let go of him for a future 2nd + cash considerations. Not sure how they feel about him at this point, but I still like him as a prospect if we couldn’t get Holmgren but want to bank on someone’s potential.
 
BankTeller said:
If OKC drafted Holmgren, is it more probable that they move on from Poku or try and play both guys? I wonder if OKC would let go of him for a future 2nd + cash considerations. Not sure how they feel about him at this point, but I still like him as a prospect if we couldn’t get Holmgren but want to bank on someone’s potential.
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I really think because of his size and strength and the potential potency of his scoring the Thunder would be smart to draft Paolo if they land the first pick. A guy as big as Paolo who is also athletic could actually play well with Poku. They have that starting perimeter that in theory should be really good. What they could really use is a legit big man on that roster. I really wouldn't be surprised if they drafted Duke's front court with their two first rounders... Banchero if he's available with their first pick and Williams if he's there at 16 which I'm pretty sure is where the Clippers pick has to land unless we get fucked and it's the 12th pick or we get fucked and OKC gets really lucky and they end up with two picks in the top 8. In that case Banchero and Duren would make the most sense for them but they need actual size not just length.
 
is there any prospect even remotely close to the kinda defender that herb jones is in this draft?

Eason?
 
College stats:

Jones (4th yr at Alabama): 11.2 pts, 6.6 rebs, 3.3 asts, 45% FG, 35% 3pt, 1.7 stl, 1.1 blk. Had a 91 DRTG with a 21 PER.

Eason (2nd year at LSU): 16.9 pts, 6.6 rebs, 1.0 ast, 52% FG, 36% 3pt, 1.9 stl, 1.1 blk. Had a 83.2(!!!) DRTG with a 33 PER.

Sochan (freshman at Baylor): 9.2 pts, 6.4 rebs, 1.8 asts, 47% FG, 30% 3pt, 1.3 stl, 0.7 blk. Had a 90 DRTG with a 20 PER.

By pretty much any advanced defensive metric, Eason blows away any competition in this draft among wing players. I might be convinced to gamble on him at #6 to be honest.
 
illmatic99 said:
is there any prospect even remotely close to the kinda defender that herb jones is in this draft?

Eason?
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Duren could become the more valuable defender if he reaches his potential.
Watch defense starting at 3:40


his potential would be Bam Adebayo
 
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illmatic99 said:
College stats:

Jones (4th yr at Alabama): 11.2 pts, 6.6 rebs, 3.3 asts, 45% FG, 35% 3pt, 1.7 stl, 1.1 blk. Had a 91 DRTG with a 21 PER.

Eason (2nd year at LSU): 16.9 pts, 6.6 rebs, 1.0 ast, 52% FG, 36% 3pt, 1.9 stl, 1.1 blk. Had a 83.2(!!!) DRTG with a 33 PER.

Sochan (freshman at Baylor): 9.2 pts, 6.4 rebs, 1.8 asts, 47% FG, 30% 3pt, 1.3 stl, 0.7 blk. Had a 90 DRTG with a 20 PER.

By pretty much any advanced defensive metric, Eason blows away any competition in this draft among wing players. I might be convinced to gamble on him at #6 to be honest.
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illmatic99 said:
College stats:

Jones (4th yr at Alabama): 11.2 pts, 6.6 rebs, 3.3 asts, 45% FG, 35% 3pt, 1.7 stl, 1.1 blk. Had a 91 DRTG with a 21 PER.

Eason (2nd year at LSU): 16.9 pts, 6.6 rebs, 1.0 ast, 52% FG, 36% 3pt, 1.9 stl, 1.1 blk. Had a 83.2(!!!) DRTG with a 33 PER.

Sochan (freshman at Baylor): 9.2 pts, 6.4 rebs, 1.8 asts, 47% FG, 30% 3pt, 1.3 stl, 0.7 blk. Had a 90 DRTG with a 20 PER.

By pretty much any advanced defensive metric, Eason blows away any competition in this draft among wing players. I might be convinced to gamble on him at #6 to be honest.
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Eason at 6'8" is in my tall enough to draft category. I didn't know he was such an incredible defender and that PER ain't bad either! I'm not sure I like him at PF, but having a versatile defender 1-3 who can at least be a threat to hit the 3 is something we can use an almost infinite amount of. Also, I have to admit I would love to see Nassir Little show us a healthy and long season next year. Do you think Eason is big enough to play PF in this league at 6'8"?
 
blazerfan11 said:
Duren could become the more valuable defender if he reaches his potential.
Watch defense starting at 3:40


his potential would be Bam Adebayo
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Duren is on my shortlist for the guy to take at 6 or later range for us. Heck if we popped to 4 I'd have to think about him assuming Banchero and Smith were gone. I want a monster defensive anchor with all-star and/or all-defense potential, preferably a stretch PF since we have Nurk, but I'm also open to taking Duren and then trading Nurk for a stretch PF like maybe Boucher plus some sweetener from Toronto.
 
Idog1976 said:
Eason at 6'8" is in my tall enough to draft category. I didn't know he was such an incredible defender and that PER ain't bad either! I'm not sure I like him at PF, but having a versatile defender 1-3 who can at least be a threat to hit the 3 is something we can use an almost infinite amount of. Also, I have to admit I would love to see Nassir Little show us a healthy and long season next year. Do you think Eason is big enough to play PF in this league at 6'8"?
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i think he projects as a 3/4. if he has the mental chops to click in the NBA, I think he has all the physical tools to be a great player.
 
illmatic99 said:
ive done the murray deep dive earlier also. his offensive numbers are jaw dropping but i wonder how much of that has to do with Iowa forcefeeding him like they did Garza last year.
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Coincidentally, Garza was the leader in Box +/- last year...
 
illmatic99 said:
College stats:

Jones (4th yr at Alabama): 11.2 pts, 6.6 rebs, 3.3 asts, 45% FG, 35% 3pt, 1.7 stl, 1.1 blk. Had a 91 DRTG with a 21 PER.

Eason (2nd year at LSU): 16.9 pts, 6.6 rebs, 1.0 ast, 52% FG, 36% 3pt, 1.9 stl, 1.1 blk. Had a 83.2(!!!) DRTG with a 33 PER.

Sochan (freshman at Baylor): 9.2 pts, 6.4 rebs, 1.8 asts, 47% FG, 30% 3pt, 1.3 stl, 0.7 blk. Had a 90 DRTG with a 20 PER.

By pretty much any advanced defensive metric, Eason blows away any competition in this draft among wing players. I might be convinced to gamble on him at #6 to be honest.
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Eason had a *major* leap from freshman to sophomore year.

And part of the reason his DRTG is so good is because LSU had arguably the best defense in all of college basketball. At one point their entire rotation pretty much was in the top ~15 in DRTG.
 
I do like Eason though. If we end up with him or Sochan I’d be happy.
 
Predator said:
Eason had a *major* leap from freshman to sophomore year.

And part of the reason his DRTG is so good is because LSU had arguably the best defense in all of college basketball. At one point their entire rotation pretty much was in the top ~15 in DRTG.
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he also transferred to LSU after a bad freshman year at Cincy. Part of that was his own doing but i love to see that improvement in guys after hitting adversity. He was also coached by BRoy in HS.
 
wizenheimer said:
that's very true, but unless an opponent has a couple of traditional PF's at the top of the rotation (which almost no team has), a forward absolutely needs to be able to defend both PF's and SF's. I just don't think it's credible that Holmgren can defend PG13, Kawhi, Butler, Tatum, Ingram, etc. Or even Giannis or Durant or Siakam. He's very likely going to have to float between PF & C, and there are very few guys like that having an elite impact
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I think he could guard those guys honestly
 
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