Did we really win the Nurkic trade?

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the trade balance is a lot closer than it used to be since Nurkic sure appears to be injury prone

also, Nurkic hasn't seemed to improve a lot during off-seasons. His impact in that "Nurkic Fever" 20 game stretch right after the trade has been as big as any stretch since. You'd expect more progression from a young big. Portland's playoff record when Nurkic has been healthy is only 1-8. But it's unlikely Plumlee would have improved that any considering the opponents and how the Blazers lost those games

still, if the scale is balanced between knowns-at-the-time and hindsight I'd give Portland the edge

a couple of other factors, both laid at the feet of Olshey: 1) Blazers needed to punt Plumlee's RFA status a year down the road because of Olshey's 2016 madness; the trade accomplished that. 2) the trade brought in a first round pick that became about 40% of the trade that allowed Olshey to draft Zach Collins. If that would have resulted in Portland drafting Donovan Mitchell or Bam Adebayo, or just drafting a Jarret Allen or OG Anunoby it would have been a slam dunk win. But we can't have nice things around here...apparently
 
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Charcoal Filtered said:
We did pay less since the trade, got a first round pick, and Nurkic has had the highest WS total for a season.

However, since the trade Plumlee has more Win Shares despite playing backup while in Denver.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/plumlma01.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/nurkiju01.html
Click to expand...
Yeah, we absolutely won this trade if you look at this deal in a vacuum.

Nurkic, while more injury prone than Plumlee, still is the superior player. We also missed the boat on paying Plumlee $14M a year for 3-4 seasons. On the other hand, we were able to sign Nurk to a very team-friendly deal in 2018 which runs through 2022.

What puts it over the top for me is the first round pick acquired, which ended up being No. 15 in 2017. Again, looking at this trade in a vacuum, and not what Portland did or did not do with the pick, that No. 15 pick was incredibly valuable. The trade allowed Portland to potentially select players such as John Collins, OG Anuoby, Jarrett Allen, and Derrick White.

No matter where you fall on the Nurk fandom spectrum, that pick alone was more valuable than Plumlee.
 
HolyBackboard said:
Yeah, we absolutely won this trade if you look at this deal in a vacuum.

Nurkic, while more injury prone than Plumlee, still is the superior player. We also missed the boat on paying Plumlee $14M a year for 3-4 seasons. On the other hand, we were able to sign Nurk to a very team-friendly deal in 2018 which runs through 2022.

What puts it over the top for me is the first round pick acquired, which ended up being No. 15 in 2017. Again, looking at this trade in a vacuum, and not what Portland did or did not do with the pick, that No. 15 pick was incredibly valuable. The trade allowed Portland to potentially select players such as John Collins, OG Anuoby, Jarrett Allen, and Derrick White.

No matter where you fall on the Nurk fandom spectrum, that pick alone was more valuable than Plumlee.
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Portland received the 20th pick, not the 15th
 
HolyBackboard said:
You're right. All of those players listed except John Collins would have been available with the 20th pick.
Click to expand...

maybe the simplest way to look at it is that Portland traded Plumlee and the 15th pick for Nurkic, Zach, and fragile bones
 
Charcoal Filtered said:
We did pay less since the trade, got a first round pick, and Nurkic has had the highest WS total for a season.

However, since the trade Plumlee has more Win Shares despite playing backup while in Denver.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/plumlma01.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/nurkiju01.html
Click to expand...
I think we won it hands down if we don't take health into consideration and even if we do, I still think we won. That being said, it could become a huge loss this off season. If the team retains Olshey I think he will extend Nurk and grossly overpay for a big that is almost obsolete in today's NBA. I love Nurk and if he were seen as a platooning center with an athletic counterpart then I'd be cool with keeping him at the salary he is currently making. If we don't get another big that also starts depending on the match up and if we give Nurk a raise then we will be fucking ourselves again, just like we did with CJ... another talented player, that is overpaid, sees too much playing time and just doesn't fit. The only difference is if we give Nurk north of 20M per season, he will not have a place to trade him to where his salary makes sense and CJ does.
 
Hell yea we won that trade. But Nurk doesn’t play much and really doesn’t do shit in the playoffs
 
AldoTrapani said:
How is that negative ? Now ur just being paranoid! Ima nice guy dude
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I've said, you're nice. I know that! You were being totally accurate about Nurk and there really is nowhere to take it but to a negative place. The guy has been injured and when he's healthy he has his limitations being so big. I was kidding about the negative again part because that stuff is funny. If I didn't think you were well intended I wouldn't say anything.
 
blazerkor said:
I've said, you're nice. I know that! You were being totally accurate about Nurk and there really is nowhere to take it but to a negative place. The guy has been injured and when he's healthy he has his limitations being so big. I was kidding about the negative again part because that stuff is funny. If I didn't think you were well intended I wouldn't say anything.
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For sure man I was just joking. Yes he’s great when he can stay healthy although he’s very inconsistent a little overrated but it’s better to have him than not! I’ll say that
 
AldoTrapani said:
Hell yea we won that trade. But Nurk doesn’t play much and really doesn’t do shit in the playoffs
Click to expand...
nurk missed two playoffs with leg breaks and in the other two, he faced anthony davis who is not only a nightmare matchup for nurk, cause hes more athletic, can play on the perimeter and is elite defender, but hes also quite possibly top 5 player in the league... but when the blazers faced okc, denver and gsw, nurk wasnt playing and he plays his best bball against those very teams, so its pretty easy to say that nurk would dominate that playoffs

so its just a very, very bad luck for nurk with his health and matchups (like dame always struggles against jrue holiday... davis, rondo & holiday, pretty much dominated nurk, cj & dame which resulted in blazers being swept)
 
AldoTrapani said:
For sure man I was just joking. Yes he’s great when he can stay healthy although he’s very inconsistent a little overrated but it’s better to have him than not! I’ll say that
Click to expand...

The thing that makes me upset with nurk is those loosey-goosey flip shots he takes... especially when he's got an advantage on a defender.

You'd think after years he'd understand when he's got a mismatch.
 
wizenheimer said:
the trade balance is a lot closer than it used to be since Nurkic sure appears to be injury prone

also, Nurkic hasn't seemed to improve a lot during off-seasons. His impact in that "Nurkic Fever" 20 game stretch right after the trade has been as big as any stretch since. You'd expect more progression from a young big. Portland's playoff record when Nurkic has been healthy is only 1-8. But it's unlikely Plumlee would have improved that any considering the opponents and how the Blazers lost those games
Click to expand...
how about 2018/2019 season when he was having the best season of his career and when he was considered to be the blazers 2nd best player by the majority of the blazers fans and considered by the nba fans to be around top 5 center, behind guys like jokic, embiid, kat, gobert, pretty much those four were undeniably better and then there were a couple of players where it was just a matter of preference, nothing else)

then the injury happened and he didnt play bball for 16 months until the bubble and during the bubble his grandmother died... so not only he needs time to come back from the injury (paul george wasnt the same player when he came back and it took a lot of time to get where he was prior to the injury), he has to deal with the family issue and those are his words, not mine

him coming to the training camp out of shape was unprofessional, no doubt, but not all people have the same psyche, its obvious he struggles with it (hopefully he gets over it) and that he wasnt focused on bball

about that 1-8 record:

Mr. Robot said:
nurk missed two playoffs with leg breaks and in the other two, he faced anthony davis who is not only a nightmare matchup for nurk, cause hes more athletic, can play on the perimeter and is elite defender, but hes also quite possibly top 5 player in the league... but when the blazers faced okc, denver and gsw, nurk wasnt playing and he plays his best bball against those very teams, so its pretty easy to say that nurk would dominate that playoffs

so its just a very, very bad luck for nurk with his health and matchups (like dame always struggles against jrue holiday... davis, rondo & holiday, pretty much dominated nurk, cj & dame which resulted in blazers being swept)
Click to expand...
lakers won the chip pretty easily, so without nurk it wouldve been the same or worse, it couldve been 0-4
 
AldoTrapani said:
I know right. And he hates dunking consistently.
Click to expand...

Drives me bananas.

It's the same thing as when LMA wouldn't take it to the hole and rely on the midrange. I know that's his bread and butter... but if you want to be ELITE you use that to your advantage and punish them. He was so soft.
 
Strenuus said:
Drives me bananas.

It's the same thing as when LMA wouldn't take it to the hole and rely on the midrange. I know that's his bread and butter... but if you want to be ELITE you use that to your advantage and punish them. He was so soft.
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It's worse than Aldridge because Nurk does take it strong to the hole, could easily get the dunk and then just flips that shit up. At least you could see the logic with LaMarcus because he obviously thought he was better from midrange than inside but Nurk gets inside and refuses to finish strong.
 
Other notes

The money we did not pay Mason was wasted. We still have money on our salary cap from our spending fiasco.

Mason makes in the three year contract he just signed what Nurkic makes this year and next.

We made our deepest playoff run without Nurk. It is also debatable whether Kanter is a better fit.

Personally, I do not want to hear any talk of Nurk being in the top tier of centers until he learns to finish around the rim. It is downright frustrating to see him miss open short range looks year after year.
 
blazerkor said:
It's worse than Aldridge because Nurk does take it strong to the hole, could easily get the dunk and then just flips that shit up. At least you could see the logic with LaMarcus because he obviously thought he was better from midrange than inside but Nurk gets inside and refuses to finish strong.
Click to expand...

I was just using LMA as a comparison cause he was equally as frustrating. But your point still stands.
 
Charcoal Filtered said:
Other notes

The money we did not pay Mason was wasted. We still have money on our salary cap from our spending fiasco.

Mason makes in the three year contract he just signed what Nurkic makes this year and next.

We made our deepest playoff run without Nurk. It is also debatable whether Kanter is a better fit.

Personally, I do not want to hear any talk of Nurk being in the top tier of centers until he learns to finish around the rim. It is downright frustrating to see him miss open short range looks year after year.
Click to expand...

Is it? I haven't heard that offered up by anyone, at least not anyone in the media or any of the talking heads - clearly not by the coaching staff or players. Look, recency bias is fun and we're all frustrated by injuries - but we're all also hoping for a speedy return because we all know it makes us a better team.
 
I understand the idea, and it doesn't have zero merit. However, if you want to take injuries into account, then you have to consider the case of anthony davis.

According to bball-reference, he is averaging 23.9 ppg - but that only counts games he played in, not games for which he was paid, yet didn't score.
Making these all zeroes, then his average is quite a bit lower.

23.9ppg*551 gms played = 13169 points/career
games paid = 8 season * 82 games/season + 32 games this season = 688 games paid

So, his career average = 13169 point/688 games paid = 19.1 points/game paid
which is fine, but not amazing.

Obviously, Bill Walton is quite a bit worse.
 
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