Make a Prediction: Bledsoe vs TPE

[wizenheimer]

make a prediction

 

[blazerkor]

So I think the most likely thing that will happen is we trade back in the draft to one of the teams with multiple firsts, which team that is will depend on where we land in the lotto. I think we'll then trade the later of those two picks for Grant and use the TPE to absorb him and then draft whoever we like the most with the earlier pick. For instance if we land at 7 and the Spurs like a guy available there we could send the 7th pick for the 10th and 20th, draft someone with the 10th and send the 20th to Detroit for Grant.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

The Blazers should use the TPE to bring in the most future young talent they can by absorbing a contending teams overpaid veteran contract.

What do I expect the Blazers to do? Trade our lottery picks and critical young talent to get a flawed veteran like Grant. So the team will make moves that are basically a worse version of Olshey's flawed moves.

 

[Pinwheel1]

The Blazers should use the TPE to bring in the most future young talent they can by absorbing a contending teams overpaid veteran contract.

What do I expect the Blazers to do? Trade our lottery picks and critical young talent to get a flawed veteran like Grant. So the team will make moves that are basically a worse version of Olshey's flawed moves.

Our lottery pick for Grant? I guess it is possible if our pick falls to #10. But I think this is one of those predictions that we will have to circle back to. I find it hard to believe especially if we end up in the top 6.

 

[B-Roy]

I voted neither, because I don’t think either will return anything of value. But if I had to bet, I think we do use the TPE on some useless pieces or a bloated bad contract that make people wish we hadn’t used it.

 

[SheedSoNasty]

I tend to go with what sets me up for least disappointment when it comes to my fandom. I’ll say neither.

 

[Phatguysrule]

Probably the TPE... Unless Bledsoe can actually play.

 

[oldmangrouch]

To use either one, there are, or should be 2 criteria.
First, will the deal actually improve the team, as opposed to just being another bandaid/journeyman vet.
Second, to get the Vulcans to buy in it can't substantially raise payroll.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Because I’ve seen this episode before, I’ll say it doesn’t matter because it won’t make us good enough or bad enough to make a difference.

 

[BonesJones]

The TPE is being used for Grant. If our pick moves up, we'll trade the MIL 2025 1st and Keon (unless Cronin is moronic and gives up Nas).

If we don't move up we trade down with SAS or CHA and use a combination of one of those picks with Keon or the MIL 1st.

Fully confident in this happening.

Bledsoe will be a trade chip next year. We'll be hoping that our pick will convey (i.e. that we'll be good enough) and that we can trade future picks with Bledsoe in some sort of manner.

 

[wizenheimer]

Bledsoe will be a trade chip next year. We'll be hoping that our pick will convey (i.e. that we'll be good enough) and that we can trade future picks with Bledsoe in some sort of manner.

do you actually believe the Blazers will guarantee his contract?

my assumption is if they can't find a trade for him around the draft they'll cut him loose rather that pay 15M for him on spec

 

[SharpesTriumph]

The TPE is being used for Grant. If our pick moves up, we'll trade the MIL 2025 1st and Keon (unless Cronin is moronic and gives up Nas).

If we don't move up we trade down with SAS or CHA and use a combination of one of those picks with Keon or the MIL 1st.

Fully confident in this happening.

Bledsoe will be a trade chip next year. We'll be hoping that our pick will convey (i.e. that we'll be good enough) and that we can trade future picks with Bledsoe in some sort of manner.

As Wiz said, the Blazers won't guarantee Bledsoe.

I don't know Keon or anyone can be combined salary wise with a TPE

 

[blazerkor]

As Wiz said, the Blazers won't guarantee Bledsoe.

I don't know Keon or anyone can be combined salary wise with a TPE

Nothing can be combined with a TPE. It has to be the TPE for the player whose salary fits into it straight up. That trade can be contingent on another trade though but that trade doesn't involve the player's salary being taken on by the TPE and must comply separately with the CBA's rules on trades. The most we can take back is the exact amount of the TPE... no wiggle room, no adding players to it, no adding other TPEs to it. So if we are going to make a deal that brings in Jerami Grant using the TPE, it will have to be completed before the end of the league year because Grant's salary next season does not fit into our TPE. Our TPE is $20,864,198 and Grant's $20,950,000. So if we don't see it by June 30th, we won't be acquiring Grant using the TPE.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

.The most we can take back is the exact amount of the TPE... no wiggle room, no adding players to it, no adding other TPEs to it. So if we are going to make a deal that brings in Jerami Grant using the TPE, it will have to be completed before the end of the league year because Grant's salary next season does not fit into our TPE. Our TPE is $20,864,198 and Grant's $20,950,000. So if we don't see it by June 30th, we won't be acquiring Grant using the TPE.

Tpe + 100k. Grants 2022-23 salary is just under that level.

 

[blazerkor]

Tpe + 100k. Grants 2022-23 salary is just under that level.

Oh, I thought I'd read that it couldn't exceed it at all but it's as plain as day in the CBA that it's +100k. Thanks for letting me know.

 

[BBert]

It is Ordained, so sayeth the CBA.

Getting rid of Bledsoe's $15mil will let it pass.

 

[BonesJones]

do you actually believe the Blazers will guarantee his contract?

my assumption is if they can't find a trade for him around the draft they'll cut him loose rather that pay 15M for him on spec

If they're still under the tax but over the cap regardless of what they do, then yes. Because cutting him wouldn't open up anything extra and they'd lose a trade chip. At least, I hope this is the case.

 

[wizenheimer]

If they're still under the tax but over the cap regardless of what they do, then yes. Because cutting him wouldn't open up anything extra and they'd lose a trade chip. At least, I hope this is the case.

if you assume 35M for Simons and Nurkic + 7M for their draft pick, the Blazers would be at 136M with 12 players. That would be about 12M below the tax line; 18M below the apron

but that would still leave them with a 21M TPE; a 6.5M TPE; a 3.3M TPE; and either a 6.7M tax-MLE, or a 10M full-MLE

just using the tax-MLE and 15M of the big TPE would put them at least 10M over the tax-line. Meaning, that the 15M owed Bledsoe over and above his partial guarantee would cost Portland 15M + (5M X $2.50) + (5M + $3.25) + (5M X $3.75) = 15M + 12.5M + 16.25M + 18.75M = 62.5M

yeah, that's right as far as I can tell....the Blazers could be paying over 60M dollars just to hold onto Bledsoe for the speculative chance he'd fetch back value as an expiring contract. That's over 60 million dollars

LOL...yeah, I can see the Vulcans agreeing to that because they never worry about tax

 

[James lamphear]

I don't look the Blazers going over the tax line that makes them pay a tax. I will be suprise they use the TPE this off season and they do use it the TPE more likely be somewhere during the season but where we are at in the standing.

 

[HoopsFanAZ]

1. It won’t be popular, but given his injuries and getting close to fish or cut bait on Little’s 2nd contract, it’s Nas+ the Bucks Pick + Bledsoe for Grant. However, Grant gets fit under the TPE and the outgoing sum of Nas and EBEC starts the clock on a new TPE.
2. Portland drafts a forward with their own pick. Murray or Sharpe (SG/SF).

 

[BoomChakaLaka]

1. It won’t be popular, but given his injuries and getting close to fish or cut bait on Little’s 2nd contract, it’s Nas+ the Bucks Pick + Bledsoe for Grant. However, Grant gets fit under the TPE and the outgoing sum of Nas and EBEC starts the clock on a new TPE.
2. Portland drafts a forward with their own pick. Murray or Sharpe (SG/SF).

It’s our best move. Nas is too fragile - another Collins. If we bring back Grant and keep our picks - it’s the best business move.

 

[wizenheimer]

1. It won’t be popular, but given his injuries and getting close to fish or cut bait on Little’s 2nd contract, it’s Nas+ the Bucks Pick + Bledsoe for Grant. However, Grant gets fit under the TPE and the outgoing sum of Nas and EBEC starts the clock on a new TPE.
2. Portland drafts a forward with their own pick. Murray or Sharpe (SG/SF).

uhhhh....I don't think the TPE exchange works....not with including Little because as far as I can tell, the Pistons don't have an active TPE. It's true the Blazers could take Grant with their TPE, which would create a 20M TPE for the Pistons. They could then take Bledsoe with that TPE, which in turn, would give Portland a new 19.3M TPE. Essentially, the Blazers could add Grant for just 1.5M of their big TPE

but I fail to see why the Pistons would do that. If they dumped Grant, they would have substantial cap-space AND a 20M TPE. Taking back Bledsoe would effective wipe out their TPE and cut 20M off their cap-space. For Bledsoe?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

uhhhh....I don't think the TPE exchange works....not with including Little because as far as I can tell, the Pistons don't have an active TPE. It's true the Blazers could take Grant with their TPE, which would create a 20M TPE for the Pistons. They could then take Bledsoe with that TPE, which in turn, would give Portland a new 19.3M TPE. Essentially, the Blazers could add Grant for just 1.5M of their big TPE

but I fail to see why the Pistons would do that. If they dumped Grant, they would have substantial cap-space AND a 20M TPE. Taking back Bledsoe would effective wipe out their TPE and cut 20M off their cap-space. For Bledsoe?

They could trade Grant for Bledsoe/Nas. On their end, it would just look like a standard simultaneous trade. On our side, it would in fact work exactly as HoopsFanAZ said.

Detroit can't have cap space and a TPE--they can have one or the other.

Theoretical reasons why they might take EBEC? a) to trade him at the deadline; b) because they really like Nas, and that's the condition we put on his inclusion in the deal. Neither seems particularly likely to me though.

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

IMO, it would depend on how much of Bledsoe's contract can be traded. If he can be traded for the full 2021-22 salary, it has a good chance of being used. That would have to be before the moratorium. If 2022-23, I see little chance since the receiving team has to have enough cap space for the entire contract while we only can accept salary back up to the guaranteed amount.

Would love to see the Milwaukee pick and Bledsoe for Grant. Not sure I am high enough on him to give up our pick this year regardless of where it ends up. Would be ok with the TPE and Milwaukee pick.

 

[wizenheimer]

They could trade Grant for Bledsoe/Nas. On their end, it would just look like a standard simultaneous trade. On our side, it would in fact work exactly as HoopsFanAZ said.

Detroit can't have cap space and a TPE--they can have one or the other.

Theoretical reasons why they might take EBEC? a) to trade him at the deadline; b) because they really like Nas, and that's the condition we put on his inclusion in the deal. Neither seems particularly likely to me though.

so, what you are saying is that Portland trades Bledsoe + Little for Grant. That basic trade meets CBA parameters, so green light from the NBA front office. Next, each side structures the trade to their advantage. Piston's make a single trade (maybe not). Blazers go the non-simultaneous route and absorb Grant with their TPE. They then build a new TPE of 23.5M because they traded away Bledsoe and Little with no salary coming back. Do I have that right?

(that would be a nice trade for Portland because they could increase their large TPE from 21M to 23.5M while bumping the expiration date from next February to next June. Assuming I'm not getting the CBA stuff wrong. Of course, it being a nice trade depends on your opinion of Grant and assumes the Vulcans would be OK with adding up 23.5M in extra salary with all it's tax implications)

I misspoke on the TPE + cap-space for Detroit. They would have the option for either

still doesn't explain why the Pistons would want to absorb Bledsoe. They could have Bledsoe's expiring contract...sure. But I'd think it would be much better for them to have Little + a 17M TPE + the draft pick

 

[Pinwheel1]

still doesn't explain why the Pistons would want to absorb Bledsoe. They could have Bledsoe's expiring contract...sure. But I'd think it would be much better for them to have Little + a 17M TPE + the draft pick

I am sure it would be. But it would be stupid for us to do it.

 

[wizenheimer]

I am sure it would be. But it would be stupid for us to do it.

in what context?

in the 'who want's Grant anyway' context?

in the 'Little + Milwaukee pick is too much' is too much context?

both?

I'm not a fan of adding Grant, but if the cost is just the Milwaukee pick + Little, while significantly improving the big Blazer TPE, I'm fine with it. Little is way too injury prone. If the Blazers get the 3rd option Grant, they are getting a solid player

 

[PtldPlatypus]

still doesn't explain why the Pistons would want to absorb Bledsoe. They could have Bledsoe's expiring contract...sure. But I'd think it would be much better for them to have Little + a 17M TPE + the draft pick

Like I said, the only real reason would be if they really liked Little and wanted him in return for Grant, and we said that the only way we'd send Little was if they took Bledsoe as well. Now, I can't see Nas having that much trade value, but it's fun to dream I guess.

 

[wizenheimer]

Like I said, the only real reason would be if they really liked Little and wanted him in return for Grant, and we said that the only way we'd send Little was if they took Bledsoe as well. Now, I can't see Little having that much trade value, but it's fun to dream I guess.

yeah, I agree

if Portland still had the leverage of the 11th pick they might be able to force that deal. As it is with the Milwaukee pick they might not get Grant in any event

which of course brings back the worry of Cronin trading a 6th-8th pick + the TPE for Grant....geeeeezuz no!

 

[PtldPlatypus]

yeah, I agree

if Portland still had the leverage of the 11th pick they might be able to force that deal. As it is with the Milwaukee pick they might not get Grant in any event

which of course brings back the worry of Cronin trading a 6th-8th pick + the TPE for Grant....geeeeezuz no!

I think the absence of the Pels pick makes a Nas+MIL25 for Grant deal, exclusive of Bledsoe, much more likely than our FRP being used for that. Cronin has to value our pick more highly than that, right?

RIGHT?!