Science Maybe Vonleh just needs to shoot more...

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Wizard Mentor

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So, I read a Blazersedge mailbag which pulled up some stats on Vonleh:
VonlehStats.PNG


They were meant to show his improvement, but the PER is included presumably to show that even with the improvement, he's still meh, and quite possibly won't be re-signed next year. I'm sure there are players with similar numbers, but much higher PER. Vonleh's problem seems to be his poor usage. Sure enough, this shows that PER increases with Usage.

Here's a random comparison (LaMarcus Aldridge):
FG%: .477
3PT%: .411
TS%: .532
Oreb/36: 2.7
Reb/36: 8.1
PER: 15.2

Even with his 15 PER, he's generally regarded as elite, and an excellent offensive player, while Vonleh is considered the opposite - however their numbers are actually pretty similar. LMA is definitely the better 3-point shooter, Vonleh definitely the better rebounder.

This is in line with the eye test. I've seen (on multiple occasions) Vonleh get a rebound, and NOT EVEN LOOK at the basket, searching endlessly for someone to pass it to -even if he's not being guarded.

Dave's article is called Noah Vonleh’s Future with the Blazers Looks Shaky, but It seems like Vonleh could easily solidify his hold on the starting position if he were more aggressive more than 4 feet from the basket - even if he doesn't improve his skills this offseason (which he certainly will). Vonleh's time in Portland has been about fitting in. He's the starter now. If he gets more aggressive, his future looks very bright, not "shaky."
 
I would like to see Vonleh shoot more. He should be as aggressive as he can be. If he had Swanigans brain he would be a borderline all-star.
 
This will be a break out season for Noah....book it! Next to Nurk his game went to another level....a lot of his stats were when he played out of position at the 5...now with Nurk he can be a real PF and capitalize on Nurk getting doubled in the post
 
I looked at his regular season stats a few weeks ago, pre and post all star game. As I recall he shot about 55% from the field after the break. Some but not all of that was next to Nurk.
 
Dave seems to be a real downer lately (actually for the past couple years). I think it is fair to compare Vonleh to other players, but I would do it on a /48min scale to even things out and would compare him against other 21-year-old forwards.

If you search Basketball-Reference for this, then you can compare some numbers. I could only figure out how to get WS/48, so that is what I use for comparison:

For all years (just the most interesting to me for comparison):

1. Anthony Davis .274
2. Nikola Jokic .228
3. Andre Kirilenko .199
4. Zach Randolph .177 (surprising)
8. Ibaka 0.164
11. Milsap .153
22. K Love .138
35. Ed Davis 0.119
53. Al Horford .103
54. Elton Brand .101
78. Cliff Robinson .077
85. Noah Vonleh 0.069
92. Rasheed Wallace 0.63
121. Thomas Robinson -.002
122. Darius Miles -0.032

Okay, just figured out how to get the per 36 numbers:

Rebounding:

1. Moses Malone 15.4
13. Al Horford 11.1
15. Noah Vonleh 11.0
24. Paul Milsap 10.3
28. Serge Ibaka 10.1

Total Rebound %

17. Vonleh

Okay, after looking at all the 21-year-old forwards that played at least 10 min/game (146 candidates), Vonleh is middle of the pack in almost everything on both ends, except rebounding, where he is top 15 percentile.
 
"...If he gets more aggressive, his future looks very bright, not "shaky."

There's no doubt in my mind he's gonna b aggressive/become another favorite of Por. fans (some of us have already liked him & will like him even more:tongue:). Also, OUR guys (Dame etc.) have been pulling for him/like him; our support + the support from OUR guys will fuel the Vonleh beast to breakout!:headbang:I think he's now comfortable here; Vonleh's time about fitting in's over.:wink:

Lastly... some ppl saying his time is up :blahblah:... do we STILL have to remind some ppl that he's STILL 21 & will b turning 22 later this month...?
 
Not to derail (but to make myself feel better), for 22-year-old centers:

Asst/36
1. Brad Daugherty
2. Kareem
3. Andrew Bogut
4. Jusuf Nurkic

Reb/36
1. Russell
2. Drummond
13. Oden
16. Kareem
17. Nurkic
20. Olajuwan
21. Lanier
28. Shaq

Steal/36
1. Robert Swift ?????
8. Nurkic
11. Olajuwan

TO/36 (oops, shouldn't have looked)
1. Nurkic
 
Not to derail (but to make myself feel better), for 22-year-old centers:

Asst/36
1. Brad Daugherty
2. Kareem
3. Andrew Bogut
4. Jusuf Nurkic

Reb/36
1. Russell
2. Drummond
13. Oden
16. Kareem
17. Nurkic
20. Olajuwan
21. Lanier
28. Shaq

Steal/36
1. Robert Swift ?????
8. Nurkic
11. Olajuwan

TO/36 (oops, shouldn't have looked)
1. Nurkic
Yes... but where were most of those guys drafted/what hype surrounded them before even their drafts...?
 
So, more plays like #10. #4 was my fav though.

So are the rankings just completely arbitrary or what?

I recall a pic where he looks like he slimmed down some. If he moves with confidence like in those clips and makes more mid range jumpers he really could break out.

:cheers:
 
Swanigan >>> Vonleh

Fight me.

I think it all comes down to how well he moves in defending the perimeter. If Biggie can move his feet as well or better than Vonleh on the perimeter, then he clearly wins. If he can't keep up on switches, or coverage of quick stretch fours, then his usage will be limited. No doubt he has more fire in his gut and has a better shot and passing skills.
 
Swanigan >>> Vonleh

Fight me.

I'm certainly hoping that's true. I don't think Vonleh is particularly good and I don't see a ton of potential, really. I like Swanigan and I think he has a decent shot to be a solid NBAer.
 
I think it all comes down to how well he moves in defending the perimeter. If Biggie can move his feet as well or better than Vonleh on the perimeter, then he clearly wins. If he can't keep up on switches, or coverage of quick stretch fours, then his usage will be limited. No doubt he has more fire in his gut and has a better shot and passing skills.

Biggie can't, unfortunately - that's why he didn't go top 5 in the draft.
 
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Swanigan >>> Vonleh

Fight me.
I wouldn't be surprised if that's the case in the near future. But as things currently stand, Vonleh is our 2nd best defender (not saying a lot, but...). I've said it several times already but everything about Swanigan except size/position reminds me of Dame, so I think he's got a semi-decent chance at being one of those draft steals taken in the 20s-30s. But he needs to play defense, and he needs to actually prove he's got an NBA-level offensive game. Vonleh already has 50% of that, and with Nurkic he wasn't looking too awful on the other 50%.
 
So, I read a Blazersedge mailbag which pulled up some stats on Vonleh:
VonlehStats.PNG


They were meant to show his improvement, but the PER is included presumably to show that even with the improvement, he's still meh, and quite possibly won't be re-signed next year. I'm sure there are players with similar numbers, but much higher PER. Vonleh's problem seems to be his poor usage. Sure enough, this shows that PER increases with Usage.

Here's a random comparison (LaMarcus Aldridge):
FG%: .477
3PT%: .411
TS%: .532
Oreb/36: 2.7
Reb/36: 8.1
PER: 15.2

Even with his 15 PER, he's generally regarded as elite, and an excellent offensive player, while Vonleh is considered the opposite - however their numbers are actually pretty similar. LMA is definitely the better 3-point shooter, Vonleh definitely the better rebounder.

This is in line with the eye test. I've seen (on multiple occasions) Vonleh get a rebound, and NOT EVEN LOOK at the basket, searching endlessly for someone to pass it to -even if he's not being guarded.

Dave's article is called Noah Vonleh’s Future with the Blazers Looks Shaky, but It seems like Vonleh could easily solidify his hold on the starting position if he were more aggressive more than 4 feet from the basket - even if he doesn't improve his skills this offseason (which he certainly will). Vonleh's time in Portland has been about fitting in. He's the starter now. If he gets more aggressive, his future looks very bright, not "shaky."
Blazers Edge??? BOOOOOO!!!!!!

I still gave you a like, just because you had the balls to post that. Had it been BGD, I would have expected it.....
 
Blazers Edge??? BOOOOOO!!!!!!

I still gave you a like, just because you had the balls to post that. Had it been BGD, I would have expected it.....

The point of the thread is that the BE article is wrong. Why would you(or anyone) boo?
 
I think it all comes down to how well he moves in defending the perimeter. If Biggie can move his feet as well or better than Vonleh on the perimeter, then he clearly wins. If he can't keep up on switches, or coverage of quick stretch fours, then his usage will be limited. No doubt he has more fire in his gut and has a better shot and passing skills.

Swanigan showed he could guard the perimeter and switch as well as Vonleh in Summer League for what it's worth. His timing on rebounds is already better than Noah. He's already got a better jumper too.
 
Even with his 15 PER, he's generally regarded as elite, and an excellent offensive player, while Vonleh is considered the opposite - however their numbers are actually pretty similar. LMA is definitely the better 3-point shooter, Vonleh definitely the better rebounder.

Comparing Vonleh to LMA makes no sense to me. LMA has his go-to shots and fairly refined pick and pop game that covers the entire mid-range. Vonleh gets his buckets on put-backs at the rim. You would have to look hard to find two more different shot charts for PFs:

http://vorped.com/1-nba/2016-2017/player/1842/noah-vonleh/shotchart/

http://vorped.com/1-nba/2016-2017/player/850/lamarcus-aldridge/shotchart/
 

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