Over the past few years we have personally proven that our roster makeup doesn’t matter. Short guards all the way baby.
My respect for Sam Presti grows ever larger: OKC has a bazillion picks but he managed to only have one in this particular shitty draft.
ESPN: https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/st...ck-draft-projecting-all-58-picks-post-lottery #7 Nikola Topic #14 Tidjane Salaun
There seems to always be some head-scratchers with all the mocks. This one is not bad....except of course when it comes to the Blazers. I am not taking Salaun over Buzelis (or Williams) at 7 Not sold on Missi yet. I can't see Ware falling to 24
I think the only guy I'm firm on is Salaun. Everyone else I just don't know enough. I'm hoping Portland can get him at 14 or move up a few spots to get him. His feel for the game has been called into question, but everyone agrees he's got a great motor. I'm in on Tidjane.
I hope they are good evaluators because 2 of those 4 in the top tier should be available for Portland. What is Hollinger's record on evaluations of draft prospects?
Their take on Cody Williams is not good: How does a 6-8 guy only have a 6.4 percent rebound rate? Williams is a tall wing who can jump, but his mark was the worst on Colorado’s entire team, even worse than the two 6-1 point guards. Yikes. That poor rebound rate underscores a larger issue that hurts Williams’ draft stock: He just shrinks from any kind of physicality or contact. That was especially pronounced after a midseason injury against Washington State, but even in the stretch preceding that – his best 10-game span of the season – he wasn’t exactly playing smashmouth basketball. Williams’ stats from that stretch, however, paint a more convincing draft profile than his overall season numbers. He is very slightly built, unlike older brother Jalen with the Thunder, but is a true wing at 6-8 who is dangerous pushing the ball on grab-and-go situations in the rare event he gets a rebound. Williams has a set push shot and was a very low-volume 3-point shooter because he can’t get into it off the dribble. When he drives in half-court situations, he’s all right hand and has little awareness of secondary defenders as he puts his head down toward the rim. In the open court, though, he’ll have his head up looking for hit-ahead passes. Defensively, he has the length to challenge shots at the end of plays but doesn’t put up nearly enough resistance up until that point. He doesn’t pressure the ball or anticipate, and offensive players easily nudge him aside if he’s still in range. He’s also pretty nimble chasing smaller players around screens. Overall, there are some Ziaire Williams vibes (no relation) where you wonder if scouts are coloring in lines that might not really be there. He might just be a guy who floats through games getting cardio. But between the scarcity of tall wings, the non-broken shot and the open-court athleticism, this Williams also flashes starter upside that becomes worth the plunge outside the lottery.
The Suns thing with Bronny is SUCH a play to get LeBron and it's not funny and right now that might be the ONLY way they have a shadow of a chance to win the title.
Here is why they like Holland: Ron Holland? Yes, Ron Holland. Let’s start with the negatives first: I think Holland is only going to measure 6-6 at the NBA Draft Combine, he shot a ghastly 24 percent from 3 in the G League, and his avert-your-eyes start to the G League season — including an 11-turnover game — had scouts shuddering. Now, for the good news: He came into the year as the top-rated player on most boards, had better numbers with G League Ignite than any other one-and-done in its history … and somehow went careening down draft boards anyway, even in a draft year where absolutely nobody came in and claimed the top spot for themselves. I don’t really get it. The biggest complaint with Holland is his lack of efficiency, but that was baked in the second Ignite built this roster. Virtually any teenager put in a situation where he has to carry a 30 percent usage rate is going to struggle; we saw it with LaMelo Ball in Australia and Scoot Henderson in Portland. Holland was no different, especially since he’s not a natural point guard in the first place. Playing on a team with no real creator, he often had to call his own number against loaded-up defenses. Did he get tunnel vision once he put it on the floor? Absolutely. Was it so tragic to rule him out versus other non-overwhelming options? I don’t think so, especially as the season wore on. Holland's numbers stack up well against Jalen Green’s with Ignite and are superior to every other Ignite perimeter player who has come through. That happened despite Holland missing the final two months of the season, when his increasing experience would have given him an edge and when the rest of the G League is at its most depleted due to call-ups and fewer assignment players. In his Ignite season, Green posted a 15.4 PER with 61.3 percent true shooting; Holland had a 15.8 PER on 56.5 percent. The shooting numbers were bad, but Green played on a more coherent team and thus also was only asked to carry a 23 percent usage rate at this level, not Holland’s 28 percent. Also, keep in mind that Holland’s free-throw rate was pretty massive for a perimeter player; four free-throw attempts per game may not seem like much until you remember the G League shoots one attempt that counts for two points. Only 10 players in the whole G League matched his rate. And even with Holland’s brutal early turnover issues, his assist and turnover rates were essentially the same as Green’s age-18 season. Green would be the No. 1 pick in this draft; I think Holland should be too. The other reason to like Holland is his defense. His 3.5 percent steal rate stands out; some iffy gambles spiked the total, but there is real talent (and fire) on this end. Overall, his rates of rebounds, steals and blocks compare favorably to former Ignite lottery pick Dyson Daniels, for instance, who has now become an awesome defender at the NBA level. I think Holland has similar pathways to being elite at this end. On top of that, there’s the good ol’ eye test. I’ve seen Holland shoot a ton, both before games and during them, having watched him in person several times over the last year. He has a low push shot that needs some work, but he’s also not a 24 percent 3-point shooter. His 72.8 percent mark from the line is a more accurate tell on where he stands as a shooter — he isn't Stephen Curry, but his shot isn’t broken either. Just reaching the point where he makes one in three would make him a potent two-way wing, and that feels attainable. Lastly, consider Holland’s age. With a July 2005 birthdate, he’s nearly a full year younger than several other players vying for places with him in the high lottery: He's six months younger than Rob Dillingham, nine months younger than Stephon Castle or Matas Buzelis and more than a year younger than Donovan Clingan and Reed Sheppard. Teams get caught on class year, but birth year is what matters. It's not a slam dunk, and you could make a credible case for several players, but Holland has been the top player on my board since the 2023 Hoop Summit. He still has the best overall résumé.
Here is why they like Castle; seems to me that they like Holland a lot more? For a league where everyone is looking for big, ballhandling wings, teams sure seem to like finding reasons to avoid taking one in the draft. I’ve seen Castle ranked much lower than this on several draft boards, and I’m not sure I get it. Castle isn’t perfect — questions about his shooting persist — but in this draft, he stands out as a plus defender from day one who also adds secondary ballhandling and creation chops. A 6-6 freshman wing with 6.2 assists per 100 possessions and a 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio certainly stands out, especially since he did so for a team that cruised to the national title. Like Holland above, Castle has high-end possibilities on the defensive end that help provide a solid floor even if he doesn’t hit his offensive ceiling. He was impressive contesting shots at the end of plays and using verticality, although he did foul too much for a perimeter player. In terms of lateral quickness, I wouldn’t quite put him on the top shelf, but he was good — straight-line drives weren’t beating him, but sometimes quick stops and changes of direction got him a step behind. Getting back to the offense end, the shooting question looms large. Castle's balance and form on his shot varies quite a bit depending on whether he’s shooting off the catch, off the dribble going left or off the dribble going right. At times, his arms look like they’re fighting each other, with the guide hand getting too much in the way. On the other hand, his size, athleticism and ball skills should allow him to thrive in the more open floor of the NBA, and the more the ball in his hands, the less of an issue his catch-and-shoot jumper becomes. Even with his issues shooting, Castle made 75.5 percent from the line last season.
