Every prospect has red flags. Putting on muscle is easier to fix than pretty much any other red flag at the top of the draft.
Banchero doesn't have the same PG skills as Scottie to me. Banchero is less athletic and bulkier. He could be Julius Randle for all we know and not be a good enough #1 but also be a bad fit as a supplementary piece. There's downside. Both Jabari and Chet are better shooters and defenders so they're a little safer to me. But Paolo could still be the best player from this draft.
Seriously, what is your connection to this kid? You've bent yourself over backwards time and time again to act like there is nothing he can't do and no reason to be skeptical of him. This whole line of putting on muscle being easier than other red flags is both preposterous and bizarre.
I think banchero might be a safer pick actually. His ability to make plays with the ball in his hands is better than those guys. He can always lose weight to be a little quicker, like what Watford did coming into the league. If he does that, he should be fine defensively. It will be interesting to see how he fit team wise because you’re right, guys like randle and griffin are weird to build around
You have Banchero over Jabari? Those are my top two as well, but I have Jabari Smith #1 overall and I'm pretty sure he will be an excellent player in the league. He has all the tools to become an elite modern PF which just so happens to be exactly what we need. Even if Banchero has intangibles and BBIQ/Passing that are superior, Jabari Smith has insane athleticism and better shooting. What I can't believe is how Holmgren is in this conversation for #1 overall, that's just nuts to me. Maybe I will end up being wrong, but I would be absolutely shocked if he's better than those two and maybe even Duren. I just value strength and athleticism extremely highly, especially in a PF add in better shooting and I just can't put Banchero over Jabari, but I'd be thrilled to get either. I'd even be fairly happy with Duren at 6 and same with Holmgren if he fell that far I think I would very likely take him, just I don't think over even Duren. If those three bigs are gone and Holmgren is till on the board I take the risk and draft him over any smaller player not named Ivey or Sharpe. I guess I'd also have to think about Keegan Murray & Mathurin, I just really want to fill in a PF if at all possible. That's another reason I'm not super fond of drafting Holmgren. I don't think you can play him at PF, but maybe you could. That would be a crazy long frontcourt of Nurk and Holmgren, but would it work with Holmgren's shooting providing spacing?
If Sharpe goes to the combine and absolutely owns the scrimmages and is off the charts on the drills and then has some workouts with top teams that have the league buzzing, he could pass them all. There is no consensus number one this year. People are worried about a few things with Chet none of which are his skills. People are worried about Paolo's defense and I would say that the reason why it's so scary is that I don't think it's due to any lack of quickness, I think it's all concentration and motor and it was never Melo's lack of athleticism or ability, it was always his want to. Jabari is solid, the dude has a high motor on both ends, he's going to be a big time shooter, a big time slasher (right now without the ball or with a wide open lane), he defends his position and is a solid help defender already and he's possibly the best shooter in the draft but he doesn't put the ball on the floor well yet and projects out as an all star but not all nba player or mvp. I think Ivey will start to generate even more interest because he's like a bigger Ja who is just as aggressive on O and D as Ja is on O, which is fucking frightening. I honestly think that we could see any of these guys go anywhere one through five. I think the way it stands it seems like it's between Jabari and Chet but a lot is going to happen between now and the draft.
?? That's a bit strong. I remember when people made a fuss that Kevin Durant literally couldn't do ONE bench press. Also, I'm not convinced Holmgren needs to TRY to put on muscle. He's going to bulk up naturally with the weight training every NBA player does. He'll get pushed around in the post by giants, but so little of the modern NBA is big solid guys banging in the post (and teams switch so much anyway - I saw SloMo guarding KAT last night) that it won't make much difference. If the worry is that being spindly makes him injury-prone, I don't know that that's true. They made Rik Smits put on weight for the early years of his career and he was much more injury-prone with the extra weight than when they let him stay skinny and he had his best years with Larry Brown (and memorable matchups against Shaquille Fucking O'Neal). Remember: Andrei Kirilenko was 6'9" but weighed just 200lbs when he was drafted.
why does every draft thread get derailed by Chet stans? This was a thread on the top 10. Not just Chet. The parallels between this crap and the Draft the Stache bullshit in 2006 are uncanny.
AK47 was drafted at 18 and didn't play in the NBA until the 3rd year after he was drafted. He was also an all-star level wing. Durant is an MVP level wing. They both had, right at the beginning of their careers, mobility and speed that Holmgren doesn't have. There is no fucking way at all that Holmgren can defend NBA SF's on the perimeter. It's very unlikely he can defend stretch-4's like Giannis and Durant and Kawhi and Tatum on the perimeter. He will very likely get stronger but he isn't going to get faster he's going to have to be a situational PF and a situational C. Be a PF against more traditional PF's; and a C against more modern C's who don't use mass as a weapon. Guys like Nurkic, Adams, Drummond, and Valuciunas will eat Holmgren up in the paint. that's not to say he can't carve out a niche for himself in the NBA and become a star. But the path for that is very narrow. We've already seen the problems with another unicorn in Porzingis; and the issues with Gobert. The list of elite PF's is two names long: Giannis and AD. And C's might only be two names long as well: Embiid & Jokic. Now, Holmgren might be able to be something like KAT or Christian Wood on offense. But until he gets much stronger (how long will that take...5 years?) I think his defensive impact is going to be very inconsistent He'd be a giant risk for Portland to invest their first top-8 pick on since Dame
I'm not sure the point you're trying to make. Kirilenko was a good player, but not someone you'd be weighing in the mix for the No. 1 pick. If that's what we're using as an analogy for Holmgren, then those pushing for him already have lost. Also, I found some pre-draft profiles for him that listed him at 210. Three inches shorter than Holmgren and already 15 pounds heavier. He eventually put on like 25 pounds. Or is the comparison Durant? Because his game was entirely different. Durant was a point-scoring machine and his ability to muscle in the post wasn't intrinsic to what he was going to have to do to be successful in the NBA. That said, he, again, was 25 pounds heavier than Chet when he was coming into the league and 3 inches shorter, so I don't think you're making the point you are trying to make. Gaining and losing weight for people isn't easy, even athletes, even guys with great training, otherwise everyone would do it. Zion was going to have problems because he is so bulky for basketball. Guess what? He hasn't been able to or hasn't worked hard enough to reshape himself and his game has suffered as a result because he can't stay healthy. Chet Holmgren has a very narrow frame. He's not 18. He's a couple of days from turning 20. He might be able to put on weight. Can he put on weight and keep the quick reactions that people touting him point toward as being what makes him a special defender? Can he put weight on that frame without his bones and ligaments and tendons breaking and tearing from the strain? Can he put on good weight at all? I just think it's extremely overly optimistic and out of line with reality to assume that a guy can completely reshape that body and retain what makes him good now, just take for granted he can do that and brush aside the skepticism when the examples of athletes who've been able to do that are so small.
Sigh. He's a defensive ace who had a long productive career and wasn't particularly injury-prone, despite being rail-thin. I'm not saying they're fucking twins. Besides, depending on the year, Kirilenko absolutely deserved to go #1. He was given a bit of a backseat to Boozer and Deron, but he also led Russia to the Euro Championship over a STACKED Spain squad. How about: "taller Kirilenko with a jump shot" - is he worth "weighing in the mix" yet? Which? And he put on weight over the course of his career!? Wow, if only Holmgren wasn't a genetic freak that we know will never do that.
Sigh, right back at you. https://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Andrei-Kirilenko-3171/ There are others that had him less than 210 but more than 200. Of course, it's a bit of a moot point. It looks like you were exaggerating an individual player who doesn't have a heck of a lot in common with Holmgren. It's a conflation, but, hey, if that blows your skirt up, whatever. Kirilenko was an NBA all-star once. He was all-defenive team three times. Again, if that's your baseline for an elite NBA talent, then I'd love to play against your teams. We're talking about this draft, BTW, not any random draft in which Kirilenko might have been worthy of the No. 1 pick ... and there might have been like four that fits over the past 50 years. Also, continuing your trend of conflating and exaggerating, nowhere did I say Holmgren shouldn't be "in the mix." We're talking about his ability to put good weight on his body and whether or not that's a reason for skepticism. The "taller Kirilenko with a jump shot" has nothing to do with that, not even taking into account it's a meaningless buzzphrase about two players that have very little in common and is, again, assuming a lot about what Holmgren's game is going to be. There's no real reason to casually accept the notion that Holmgren is going to be a great jump-shooter in the NBA.
I already addressed this in the post you're responding to. I'll refer you to that so I don't have to repeat my proactive reply to nonsense.
He will put on weight naturally as he gets older. How much is the question? My guess is 220-230. So essentially Hassan Whitehead sizewise. Until that happens I see no reason why he can't be a spread 4. Make the other teams match up with him on the perimeter.
I get that people look at Holmgren and think "ick". He's certainly not going to sell any jerseys. He looks pretty ridiculous. And of course he's a risk. But is he talented? Absolutely. Does he have a great basketball brain? No question. Is he better suited to the modern NBA than big, plodding classic centers? Yes. It would have to be top 3 because he'll be gone by then. So chances are we won't the opportunity to take that risk. I look forward to a non-stop series of posts of his haters gloating about his anemic stats as he inevitably struggles to adapt to the NBA in his first year.
