Notice Joe Cronin New GM

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by THE HCP, May 10, 2022.

  1. blazerkor

    blazerkor Well-Known Member

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    I think CJ and Larry for a late lotto this year and Hart would have been a very underwhelming but not outrageously unfair trade. For Hart and a Bucks pick four fucking drafts from now but when the Bucks still figure to have a prime Giannis... well that fucking sucks.

    The value of a pick three years away on a team that is looked at as a legit contender in that time period is worth so much less than a pick in the first half of the draft right now. I don't think Hart has close to the value that CJ does even if Hart is being paid reasonably and CJ is being overpaid by 5-10M. Josh Hart has been the 4th-7th best player on teams that haven't made the playoffs his whole career, while CJ has been the second best player on a team that made the playoffs for the last six seasons. I don't think that Larry is a net neutral in trade value I think he's a net positive. I don't think the difference in value between CJ and Hart plus what Larry brings is a 2025 Bucks first rounder and whatever throw away shit was also in that trade. If you want to come back with the TPE... that's fine but we did not recoup significant enough draft capital in those two trades to make the TPE worth much and if you want to talk about balancing our books I'll want to know why you care about Vulcan or the profitability of the Paul Allen Trust.

    I'm not saying that Cronin didn't execute what he was told to execute. I'm saying he didn't come close to maximizing the value of what came back in those trades when considering the value he sent out but maybe he would have been able to if he wasn't in such a time crunch and under such a strict directive from ownership. I'm hoping he could have gotten closer to fair value if he were given closer to fair parameters. We'll see if that's the case.
     
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  2. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    You do realize you just posted the transactions as the players they drafted with those picks instead of the pick #'s themselves? The Thunder traded the 25th (Quickley) and 28th (McDaniels) picks along with Rubio for the 17th pick (Poku).

    So like I said, two late 1sts for a higher 1st.
     
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  3. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    Cronin, Griffin, and multiple league executives have said otherwise. I'll take what the actual people said over you making stuff up.
     
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  4. Wizard Mentor

    Wizard Mentor Wizard Mentor

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    I'm still unsure why Cronin got the job. Burning down a house on valuable property and rebuilding a new one on the site is a common practice.

    Burning down the house, and not building another house there seems frightening. Should have had him build the fucking house before hiring him full time.
     
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  5. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    lol..."multiple league executives". Sauces

    said what? that CJ was "worth more"? What does that even mean? Really. Did CJ have empirical value that everyone agrees on? He sure as hell didn't in this forum.

    how much more was he worth? somewhere between a top-55 protected 2nd round pick in 2028 and Giannis in February? That sure narrows it down

    and to get that "more", however much, or little it was, just how much future salary was Portland going to take on? And would the Vulcans have agreed to paying that extra salary compared to what Portland got. Did those multiple league executives detail Vulcan tolerance for millions in extra salary that when they whispered in your ear?

    I've had enough discussions with people around here who have been ballistic in the bitching and complaining to know, for certain, that if that 11th pick had conveyed the angry-batshit-level in this forum would be well below the toxic line it is well above now. So then, fuck Paul George and fuck Covid
     
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  6. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    Great analogy because it can take at least a year to build a quality house, more if there needs to be a demolition phase. Cronin started the demolition and had a week to work. After the trade deadline no work on the job site was allowed till the week of the draft...which hasn't happened yet. Then, it's a week or two with the job site closed till the moratorium is over and the off-season begins. And then there are about 30 weeks till the next trade deadline

    in other words, if it takes 50 weeks for demolition and construction, Cronin has one week on the job. And you guys are bitching about the progress of a 50 week job after one week.
     
  7. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    Again, I simply wanted what New Orleans was WILLING to give up for him as his value. His value was a lottery pick 5-14, so that's what I want. The fact that New Orleans will likely have a pick in the 5-10 range that they were willing to give up in the trade is not acceptable. I don't care how anyone spins it. The value was established and Cronin failed to cover all angles.

    To blame it on PG getting Covid is the most laughable thing ever. At the trade deadline PG wasn't even expected to come back this season. A good GM would account for as many scenarios as possible, not assume the Lakers were gonna be fine and not assume New Orleans wouldn't be better with the players you're trading them. This isn't rocket science, it's simple common sense.
     
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  8. Fairly-Hard

    Fairly-Hard Well-Known Member

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    You have to admit there's a bit of 20/20 hindsight here but overall I agree. Cronin should have been better on that pick. It makes the trade much more palatable.
     
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  9. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    I said it minutes after we found out the protections on the pick, the day of the trade, and have been saying it ever since.

    This was on March 5th, long before the Pelicans made the playoffs.
     
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  10. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    his value was a conditional pick 5-14...not a GUARANTEED pick 5-14.

    and that's what Portland got. At the time of the trade, the Pels did not have any guaranteed lottery picks...none

    When was the last time a non-all-star player was traded for a GUARANTEED lottery pick? Portland didn't trade a guaranteed lottery pick for RoCo and they didn't trade a guaranteed lottery pick for Nance. In fact, they didn't even trade a guaranteed 1st round pick for either. Portland didn't even get a guaranteed lottery pick for Gerald Wallace; they got a conditional lottery pick, and unlike the CJ trade, they got lucky that time, and even luckier in the draft
     
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  11. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    You're making the same arguments that you've still failed to debunk. Name a trade where the conditions were good if the trade bombed for the other team, but got worse the better they did? Trades are set up the opposite way where you receive the same or less protection the following year or it conveys if the team makes the playoffs (Chicago pick). Hence why it's a massive failure to not at least negotiate the possibility of the Lakers pick falling into that protection when the New Orleans pick didn't.

    The Blazers/Nets trade with Gerald Wallace was top-3 protected for several years. So if it didn't convey, Portland had the same value of conditions for the next few years.

    I've already told you that it would've been still possible for the Lakers pick to move up, it wasn't a guarantee, but that's why Cronin isn't cut out for being in charge of those situations if he can't negotiate what should have been an easy inclusion, whether that be because of negligence or inexperience.
     
  12. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    You also have to consider the most likely outcome as the true value.

    There's been some trades with reverse protection. The Mike Conley trade to the Jazz had the pick not conveying for a couple years unless it was in the late lottery. That however was an unlikely outcome so the value at the time of the trade was a non-lottery pick. Memphis could've gotten lucky but were expecting the pick to be in the 20's.

    Now if OKC trades a 1st round pick this summer that's top-20 protected, the likely outcome is that it won't convey so it shouldn't be valued as a first round pick when evaluating the trade.

    We all agree that the most likely scenario was that the Blazers would get the Pelicans pick, right? Even Cronin was preparing as if they had it. If that's the most likely scenario, that's the value. If the Lakers pick doesn't move up and the Pelicans get the 8th, 9th, or 10th pick with everything on the line for the Blazers this summer when the Pelicans were willing to give up that same pick in the most likely of scenarios doesn't therefore make sense to excuse that.
     
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  13. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    to start with, I'm pretty sure the Nets pick was only for 2012

    upload_2022-5-13_14-14-27.png

    I remember it as being only a 1-year window and that's what this website shows (notice how they show all conditions on the picks Portland traded for Wallace)

    that website tracks protections every time:

    upload_2022-5-13_14-24-27.png

    upload_2022-5-13_14-26-47.png

    so I don't know why they'd exclude the added protections for the Nets trade. In other words, if the Nets had jumped into the top-3, the Blazers would have been screwed. In fact, I seem to recall people being really worried about that at the time
    **************************

    as far as the CJ trade, I can't remember whether I said it here or at RealGM, and I don't care much, but the day after the trade I said I wished the Blazers had got the insurance of the Laker's pick, either this year's or 2024. You weren't the only one with the idea. I think I said I preferred 2024 because I thought the Lakers would make the playoffs this year...and this year's pick had to be in the top-10 to convey rather than the lottery

    but the 'disappointment' of not getting that insurance wasn't enough for me to go on a 3 month jihad against Cronin

    and I'll say again: teams do not trade unconditional 1st round picks for non-all-star players like CJ. The Pels could have added the Lakers pick this season, attached the 1-4 protection (which they would have), and the pick could have vaulted to the top-4 in the lottery, leaving Portland in the exact same place they are now
     
  14. oldmangrouch

    oldmangrouch persona non grata

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    None of which answers the original question: Cronin was one of the top FO guys on a poorly run team. How does that earn him a promotion without bothering to even interview other candidates? You say we shouldn't bitch about his one week on a 50 week job - but you are ready to anoint him savior for that same one week. :dry: Just a tad bit of a double standard there.
     
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  15. Fairly-Hard

    Fairly-Hard Well-Known Member

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    Everyone knew that was a possibility. The idea that he should, could’ve or even had a chance to make it different is where the question remains.
    I agree he should not have made the trade without having that covered. I also agree with you that not making that trade like that could have still worked out for the Blazers tanking and they would still have CJ as an asset to work with.
    You made a comment yesterday to that effect. Keeping CJ would might not have hurt our pick at all?
     
  16. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    Wut?

    where is it "I'm anointing him as the savior"?

    I have said, in this forum, several times, that I was hoping for another GM besides Cronin to handle the draft and next off-season. He has done nothing that gives me confidence in his ability to manage either. In fact, and I've said this as well, his seeming focus on Grant worries me and I'd think a more experienced GM might have a more expansive option tree. But then, it's possible Cronin does and isn't revealing it

    I think he did a good job of dismantling the dead-end roster that Olshey kept rebooting. And he gets an A+ fro finally breaking up the failed Dame/CJ experiment. And even though I've pushed back against what I see as way-over-the-top negativity about him, that doesn't mean that I'm real satisfied with the return he got from the trades. I think the return could have been better, but I also believe he was operating under constraints outlined by the Vulcans, and that the better 'realistic' return I would want is not that much better than what was got

    I also recognize that all draft assets he could have leveraged for the players he traded would have been conditional. And with conditional draft picks, circumstances can monkey wrench a lot of plans
     
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  17. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Nobody is saying that the Pels should've traded an unconditional pick. Eric has acknowledged that last part in his explanation several times so I dont know why you're including it. Obviously the Lakers pick could jump into the top 4.

    Nobody can explain to me how the Pelicans were willing to give up the 8th pick (at the time) if they sucked with CJ, yet werent willing to trade the 8th pick if the CJ trade worked out.
     
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  18. oldmangrouch

    oldmangrouch persona non grata

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    Fair enough.
     
  19. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    LOL...geeeeezuzzz

    "Cronin should have got more for CJ!"....."CJ isn't good enough to harm the tank"

    thoughts brought to the world from the same brains
     
  20. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    I swear you like misinterpreting people on purpose.
     

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