For those of you who value analytics, Anfernee Simons is having one of the worst seasons of all time

[TBpup]

I swear people hate Ant cuz of Neil's comments more than anything he does on the court.

I dunno what it will take to get Simons going. Maybe a consistent forcefeeding of 15-20 mpg will help him. We need him to develop, need our coaching staff dedicating more focus towards him.

Everything I've read about his work ethic is great. Needs to put it together

I don't think people hate Ant at all and certainly not because of Neil's comments. Mostly, they seem to be teasing Neil because of his ridiculous comments. It's unfortunate he said them about Ant, but no one hates Ant for some misquided idiocy Olshey stated.

 

[bobf]

I swear people hate Ant cuz of Neil's comments more than anything he does on the court.

I dunno what it will take to get Simons going. Maybe a consistent forcefeeding of 15-20 mpg will help him. We need him to develop, need our coaching staff dedicating more focus towards him.

Everything I've read about his work ethic is great. Needs to put it together

He's been really bad but no point in totally giving up on him now. Ya never know.

 

[illmatic99]

He's been really bad but no point in totally giving up on him now. Ya never know.

I mean CJ was pretty fucking awful before Wes' injury. In the first half of his second year, he averaged 5 pts a game, with a rebound and an assist in 12 mpg on 52% TS.

 

[Pinwheel1]

D
M
C

is our savior. We need to trade half our team to get him.

 

[wizenheimer]

I mean CJ was pretty fucking awful before Wes' injury. In the first half of his second year, he averaged 5 pts a game, with a rebound and an assist in 12 mpg on 52% TS.

I know you said you were willing to die on the Ant hill. You should realize it's looking like you're already bleeding out. Maybe call for a medic

we don't need to try and make some logic-defying comparison to CJ. What we need to do is find a comparison to a player approximately the same age, who has had approximately the same opportunity. Maybe somebody like Gary Trent (I won't add Jr. because of Jordan Kent)




the only real edges Ant had was in FT rate and assist rate. He was notably worse than Trent last year, and he's regressed a ton from last year to this year



now, I suppose, here is where the excuses about Duke vs Image Academy come in. Or that Simons is 6 months younger and a "project"

I mean...he's shooting 30% on FG's and he's averaging an assist every 20 minutes

there's still plenty of time to turn things around this season, but he sure didn't look ready to turn anything around last night

 

[jlprk]

I'm not seeing it. You guys must be looking at the stats upside-down. Try this: Put your legs up the back of your chair, and your head down where your feet were. Not only is this good comfortable exercise, but also you will learn to love Stotts System victims.

 

[illmatic99]

Check out this video of his workout with Darren Collison this offseason: play from 12 mins or so and hear his comments on how Ant should play with Dame/CJ

 

[illmatic99]

I know you said you were willing to die on the Ant hill. You should realize it's looking like you're already bleeding out. Maybe call for a medic

we don't need to try and make some logic-defying comparison to CJ. What we need to do is find a comparison to a player approximately the same age, who has had approximately the same opportunity. Maybe somebody like Gary Trent (I won't add Jr. because of Jordan Kent)

View attachment 36141


the only real edges Ant had was in FT rate and assist rate. He was notably worse than Trent last year, and he's regressed a ton from last year to this year

View attachment 36143

now, I suppose, here is where the excuses about Duke vs Image Academy come in. Or that Simons is 6 months younger and a "project"

I mean...he's shooting 30% on FG's and he's averaging an assist every 20 minutes

there's still plenty of time to turn things around this season, but he sure didn't look ready to turn anything around last night

I'm not gonna compare stats for a guy playing sporadic minutes, every other game. That's a fool's errand, especially when we want to turn Ant into a fulltime PG for some reason instead of play his natural position. I only brought up CJ because he was similarly un-impactful when he was behind Wes. Neil traded away a pick to get a guy in Afflalo to ply AHEAD of CJ because of how awful McCollum was at the time. And there were plenty of threads here about how we need to give up on CJ and he would never be an NBA player-- I was part of that.

I'm not saying Ant will rise like CJ if given the shot to play more, but it's our most recent experience of a guy becoming something out of nothing.

 

[GDiama]

I'm not gonna compare stats for a guy playing sporadic minutes, every other game. That's a fool's errand, especially when we want to turn Ant into a fulltime PG for some reason instead of play his natural position. I only brought up CJ because he was similarly un-impactful when he was behind Wes. Neil traded away a pick to get a guy in Afflalo to ply AHEAD of CJ because of how awful McCollum was at the time. And there were plenty of threads here about how we need to give up on CJ and he would never be an NBA player-- I was part of that.

I'm not saying Ant will rise like CJ if given the shot to play more, but it's our most recent experience of a guy becoming something out of nothing.

There is excuses of course, but he HAS to show something even in 8-10 minutes. He consistently shows nothing. I see rookies getting in there for few minutes and having an impact yet Simons looks completely lost in year 3. He doesn't even bring some energy. You don't think he looks clueless everytime he touches the court?

 

[illmatic99]

There is excuses of course, but he HAS to show something even in 8-10 minutes. He consistently shows nothing. I see rookies getting in there for few minutes and having an impact yet Simons looks completely lost in year 3. He doesn't even bring some energy. You don't think he looks clueless everytime he touches the court?

ya it's not been encouraging. up to him to put in the extra work, cause it's a waste of talent.He's got such a sweet jumpshot and can jump out of the gym. It's all meaningless if those skills don't manifest in a game.

 

[illmatic99]

we're just a few months removed from him doing this in the bubble

 

[wizenheimer]

I'm not gonna compare stats for a guy playing sporadic minutes, every other game. .

I didn't either. I compared Simons to Trent, last season. Simons played more total minutes that Trent. He played in 70 games and averaged 21 minutes. That was consistent playing time with consistent roles

I'm also pretty skeptical about the narrative he's being played out of position at PG. Portland doesn't need another undersized SG when they have CJ, Trent, and Jones to play that position. Simons needs to develop PG skills if he wants to stick in the NBA. I'm assuming the Blazers (Olshey) have picked up his option for next season. But If Simons was on any other team managed by any other GM I'd think there'd be a reasonable chance he'd be allowed to walk next summer

at this point, I'd wonder if his NBA career will make it past 5 seasons

 

[Minstrel]

The unfortunate reality is that it's very hard to find any comparable players that were this bad over the first few seasons and eventually became a useful player. Players who develop into NBA rotation players or better might start out with struggles, but not to this level.

I'd love to see Simons succeed but I'm fairly sure he's going to wash out of the NBA. At best, IMO, he might hang on as an end-of-the-bench scrub for a while.

 

[wizenheimer]

The unfortunate reality is that it's very hard to find any comparable players that were this bad over the first few seasons and eventually became a useful player. Players who develop into NBA rotation players or better might start out with struggles, but not to this level.

I'd love to see Simons succeed but I'm fairly sure he's going to wash out of the NBA. At best, IMO, he might hang on as an end-of-the-bench scrub for a while.

I was trying to come up with comps

Elliot Williams?



Williams was quite a bit older than Ant at comparable stages, so maybe not a good comp

but I believe you're right and that player who look as bad as Simons does, in their 3rd season, rarely improve enough to have a significant career. There are probably a couple of exceptions to that rule, probably for big men, but not for an undersized SG guard or a PG

 

[stampedehero]

The excellent @Darkwebs thread for this game has Simons as a starter. Why not Gary Trent?????

 

[Natebishop3]

The issue is confidence. Which is weird because in his rookie season he seemed to have unwavering confidence.

But that confidence is gone. He looks very much like a rookie out there, which is problematic because he's in his third season.

Confidence is everything. It's why Jermaine didn't work out in Portland. He'd go in, make a mistake, and Dunleavy would yank him almost immediately. As soon as he went to Indy and they said, "you're starting, don't worry about it," the dude became an AllStar. That could happen with Simons.

 

[Minstrel]

It's why Jermaine didn't work out in Portland. He'd go in, make a mistake, and Dunleavy would yank him almost immediately. As soon as he went to Indy and they said, "you're starting, don't worry about it," the dude became an AllStar. That could happen with Simons.

Jermaine O'Neal worked out fine in Portland, in terms of what he could control. He struggled a little as an 18 and 19 year old, but held his own. By advanced stats, he was playing well as a 20 and 21 year old in Portland. He simply didn't get enough playing time to "look good" in the box score. And then he was traded.

If your implication is that he was a bust in Portland, due to confidence, and then resuscitated his career in Indiana because he was given the confidence of starting, that narrative was off. He was talented and on the path to success in Portland, but wasn't given enough playing time and then was traded in a win-now move. Even at the time, I don't recall Portland fans considering O'Neal a bust--a lot of fans were down on the move.

Simons bears no resemblance to O'Neal, in my opinion. Simons has been terrible by traditional and advanced measures. O'Neal was playing well, when he got the chance.

 

[Scalma]

we're just a few months removed from him doing this in the bubble

I feel like every guy in the nba is talented, and if you give them minutes they’re bound to have good games here and there. Every year there are g leaguers that come up, score 20+ points in a game, and then just fade away after.

With Simons, idk what it is. He looks more comfortable (physically and mentally) now than he’s ever looked imo, but the results still aren’t there. I’m sure he’ll have a good game while CJ is out, but unless he starts stacking them up somewhat consistently, I’m not sure he’s got a future in the NBA. This stretch of games without CJ should be his final opportunity in Portland imo.

 

[illmatic99]

I feel like every guy in the nba is talented, and if you give them minutes they’re bound to have good games here and there. Every year there are g leaguers that come up, score 20+ points in a game, and then just fade away after.

With Simons, idk what it is. He looks more comfortable (physically and mentally) now than he’s ever looked imo, but the results still aren’t there. I’m sure he’ll have a good game while CJ is out, but unless he starts stacking them up somewhat consistently, I’m not sure he’s got a future in the NBA. This stretch of games without CJ should be his final opportunity in Portland imo.

He actually gonna get a legit shot, tho?

 

[Scalma]

He actually gonna get a legit shot, tho?

There is no other option short of Dame playing 40+ minutes. He’s gonna get 15 minutes every night. It’s up to him to earn more.

 

[illmatic99]

Some great insight from Quick

https://theathletic.com/2338189/202...il-blazers-mailbag/?source=emp_shared_article

The more nuanced answer is this: The people who see Simons practice, and observe his attitude, work ethic and attention to detail, all stand by him.

Right now, the worst thing Simons has done in his two-plus seasons is not live up to the gaudy hype heaped on him by Olshey, the man who drafted him at No. 24 in the 2018 draft. You’ve heard or read Olshey’s quote by now — that Simons is “the most talented player I’ve ever drafted” — and I’m not convinced that is a crime by Olshey. After all, several veterans on the Blazers the past couple of years have backed up Olshey’s praise, saying Simons could start for other teams and that he shows eye-opening skills during practices.

It’s why I asked Carmelo Anthony on Thursday for insight into where Simons is in his development.

“Ant is good. I can tell you that internally,” Anthony said. “We see him every single day. We see what he is trying to do, we see him taking it all in as far as the education of the game, the knowledge of the game. Asking questions to the right people, asking the right questions. And just his game, and the way he has grown over the past couple of years.”

I asked Anthony to provide more detail on what he sees in practice that leads him to praise Simons.

“I don’t think a lot of you guys see his skill set the way we do on a day-to-day basis — the way he attacks, the way he can shoot the hell out of the ball … his flow within the game. Those things come natural to him,” Anthony said.

Of course, that potential has yet to consistently translate from the practice court to NBA games, which I’m also not convinced is a crime. He’s a kid, and a kid who didn’t play college basketball. There are plenty of examples of guards who didn’t blossom until they were years into their career — Steve Nash and Gary Payton immediately come to mind — so I don’t subscribe to the notion of calling Simons a bust. Sometimes, development takes time, especially when it involves running a team.

Anthony said Thursday that Simons has the skills. He just doesn’t yet have the basketball IQ that comes with experience.

I go back a couple of decades ago, to a conversation I had with Blazers guard Damon Stoudamire. I was asking him about Jermaine O’Neal and whether he and the guys in the locker room were surprised at the immediate success O’Neal had in Indiana after the Blazers traded him. Stoudamire said every player in Portland knew O’Neal had it — he was killing the veterans in practice — and they even went as far as to tell coach Mike Dunleavy.

“The players,” Stoudamire said, “are always the first to know.”

That’s why I value what I hear from the players about Simons. And keep in mind, often their praise didn’t come in response to one of my questions, which could create an awkward situation for them, to be honest. Their praise of Simons was often unprompted or gleaned from the side conversations between players in the locker room. And these were guys who had been around — Evan Turner, Maurice Harkless, Damian Lillard. As Anthony mentioned Thursday, they are the ones in practice, they are the ones who see the day-to-day. They are the first to know.

And the players say Simons can play.

 

[illmatic99]

 

[Minstrel]

Some great insight from Quick

https://theathletic.com/2338189/202...il-blazers-mailbag/?source=emp_shared_article

I don't doubt that Ant is talented, but playing well in practice is an entirely different animal. Actual NBA games have much more intense, sophisticated defenses than practices do. Talent gets you in the door, but it's really being able to make decisions quickly and instinctively that ties talent together when the bullets are live. There have been a lot of players who can dominate exhibitions, workouts or practices but can't do the same in real games and it's because they don't have that instinctive decision-making that allows them to actually make use of their talent.

If Ant were improving year to year, I'd believe he was on the cusp or had greater years ahead of him. The problem is that he's regressing--which suggests that getting up to "NBA speed" isn't a question of insufficient experience for him, but potentially rather a fatal (to his game) deficit in that speedy decision-making.

 

[Hoopguru]

Some great insight from Quick

I don't doubt that Ant is talented, but playing well in practice is an entirely different animal. Actual NBA games have much more intense, sophisticated defenses than practices do. Talent gets you in the door, but it's really being able to make decisions quickly and instinctively that ties talent together when the bullets are live. There have been a lot of players who can dominate exhibitions, workouts or practices but can't do the same in real games and it's because they don't have that instinctive decision-making that allows them to actually make use of their talent.

If Ant were improving year to year, I'd believe he was on the cusp or had greater years ahead of him. The problem is that he's regressing--which suggests that getting up to "NBA speed" isn't a question of insufficient experience for him, but potentially rather a fatal (to his game) deficit in that speedy decision-making.

There are some players that a bad practice players, but very good in games. I remember Dr. Jack talking about Dave Twardzick? being that way...

 

[calvin natt]

Still so young. Unbelievably athletic, and just needs to be more consistent. Giving up on him is ridiculous.

 

[e_blazer]

I don't doubt that Ant is talented, but playing well in practice is an entirely different animal. Actual NBA games have much more intense, sophisticated defenses than practices do. Talent gets you in the door, but it's really being able to make decisions quickly and instinctively that ties talent together when the bullets are live. There have been a lot of players who can dominate exhibitions, workouts or practices but can't do the same in real games and it's because they don't have that instinctive decision-making that allows them to actually make use of their talent.

If Ant were improving year to year, I'd believe he was on the cusp or had greater years ahead of him. The problem is that he's regressing--which suggests that getting up to "NBA speed" isn't a question of insufficient experience for him, but potentially rather a fatal (to his game) deficit in that speedy decision-making.

You may be right, but he hasn't had consistent minutes in a long time. Since the Blazers have little in the way of other options, Simons is going to get a steady diet of more minutes. The time to evaluate him is after he's done that.

 

[wizenheimer]

You may be right, but he hasn't had consistent minutes in a long time. Since the Blazers have little in the way of other options, Simons is going to get a steady diet of more minutes. The time to evaluate him is after he's done that.

why can't we have evaluated him as a 2nd year player last season, which by the way ended about 3 1/2 months after this season began? That doesn't seem like long time to me, and he got a consistent 21 minutes

he shot 32% on three's, under 45% on two's (17th on the team), under 40% on FG's (again, 17th on team), had the worst BPM among rotational players, and spent half of his time at PG actually having a higher turnover rate than assist rate. That's really quite bad

I agree that's he's going to have a major opportunity over the next 25 games or so; and he might improve a lot because of it. But the way-too-often repeated narratives around here that he hasn't had opportunities or is playing out of position just seem false to me

 

[Hoopguru]

I understand they want him to be the bu pg and Ill guess we will see how that goes, however, Im still not convinced he's pg material. He's, imo, the type of player that plays better off the ball.
He's either going to prove many of us in here wrong or right before long.

 

[e_blazer]

why can't we have evaluated him as a 2nd year player last season, which by the way ended about 3 1/2 months after this season began? That doesn't seem like long time to me, and he got a consistent 21 minutes

he shot 32% on three's, under 45% on two's (17th on the team), under 40% on FG's (again, 17th on team), had the worst BPM among rotational players, and spent half of his time at PG actually having a higher turnover rate than assist rate. That's really quite bad

I agree that's he's going to have a major opportunity over the next 25 games or so; and he might improve a lot because of it. But the way-too-often repeated narrative around here that he hasn't had opportunities or is playing out of position just seem false to me

I'm pretty sure that the coaching staff evaluate players constantly. He's going to play and he's going to make whatever he can of the opportunity. I'm just saying that I'll make my assessment of him, for the near zero importance that imparts, after he's played a few weeks. You can do anything you want.

 

[wizenheimer]

I understand they want him to be the bu pg and Ill guess we will see how that goes, however, Im still not convinced he's pg material. He's, imo, the type of player that plays better off the ball.
He's either going to prove many of us in here wrong or right before long.

I can't see him with any role for the Blazers if he can't play backup PG. How many under 6'3 no-defense SG's does Portland need?

I suppose you could argue Portland made it work with Napier and Seth Curry, but they had Turner to fill the role of backup PG on offense; and both Napier and Curry played decent defense. They don't have a player like Turner anymore (thank god) so Simons needs to fill the PG role