The Case for Jake

Welcome to our community

Be a part of something great, join today!

Register Log in
TBpup

TBpup

Writing Team
Joined
Nov 15, 2013
Messages
22,664
Likes
34,668
Points
113
Layman is not an end all/be all, but he is dramatically improved in a number of significant areas and in the very limited opportunities and minutes he is getting as the 5th option, he seems to be making the most of them. But his minutes are very limited and he usually starts both halves for 5-6 minutes and then never sees the light of day again.

Layman....2017.....2018
FG%......... .298 .... .529
3FG%....... .200 .... .333
2FG%....... .370 ..... .750
eFG%....... .340 ..... .618
PER.......... 4.9 ...... 12.5

He is actually shooting just a shade less FG's per 36 than last season but his efficiency has skyrocketed up. His WS has climbed from -0.1 to +0.1. That is not a huge leap but by comparison, CJ's has gone from 6.6 down to 0.2. Aminu has gone from 4.2 to 0.2. Dame has plummeted from 12.6 to 1.2. Harkless is down from 3.2 to 0.2. Jusuf has fallen from 4.7 to 0.3. Collins who has shown much better this year as well is the same in WS at 0.3 both this year and last.

So four of the five starters have fallen off significantly in WS while Jake is the only one to have improved. Of course it is early and in Jake's case, a limited sample size due to the minutes, but with such increases in efficiency, it seems like he should get more run.

I get that Stotts isn't a big adjustment guy. We saw that in the Playoffs last year and we have seen that in games for years now. But what does a guy have to do?
 
He’d be a good (or intriguing) fit with the second unit if Moe ever got healthy or Aminu shifted over to SF. Giving him the Vonleh treatment doesn’t make much sense, he’s not a defensive specialist. Let him run with the second unit.
 
If Jake Layman is being talked about as a regular rotation guy, your team is basically a .500 team......
 
Mediocre Man said:
If Jake Layman is being talked about as a regular rotation guy, your team is basically a .500 team......
Click to expand...

That can be said about a lot of players on this roster....and it's not like the Blazers are that far from a .500 record in most years and anything close to .500 in the Playoffs would be a massive departure from where they have been.

It's not to say that Layman is some part of their Top 4-5 core, but he has significantly improved his efficiency. Some players on this team still can't dribble (or pass, or shoot, or show up consistently). Every year there is a call for another piece. With Dame/CJ, they just needed a big man. Enter Nurkic. That didn't really change anything. Then they needed more shooting. Enter Stauskas and Curry. I still see many of the same issues as last year.

This is a flawed roster at best that is capped out. At some point, it has to be on the coach or the stars. You just can't lose games like what happened with the Wizards (still their only win this season) year after year and not start to look at the top.
 
He's only getting minutes because of Harkless's knee. I'm worried he will continue to get minutes.
 
Rastapopoulos said:
He's only getting minutes because of Harkless's knee. I'm worried he will continue to get minutes.
Click to expand...

I'd be very happy if we got 'Good Moe'....but history tells us, that 'Bad Mo' also shows up a good portion of the time.
 
I'd give Jake's minutes to Curry, even if Harkless isn't available, except against maybe the odd Carmelo Anthony.
 
TBpup said:
His WS has climbed from -0.1 to +0.1. That is not a huge leap but by comparison, CJ's has gone from 6.6 down to 0.2. Aminu has gone from 4.2 to 0.2. Dame has plummeted from 12.6 to 1.2. Harkless is down from 3.2 to 0.2. Jusuf has fallen from 4.7 to 0.3. Collins who has shown much better this year as well is the same in WS at 0.3 both this year and last.

So four of the five starters have fallen off significantly in WS while Jake is the only one to have improved. Of course it is early and in Jake's case, a limited sample size due to the minutes, but with such increases in efficiency, it seems like he should get more run.
Click to expand...

WS is a cumulative stat. So, you're comparing 5 game's worth of WS to 82 game's worth. That's like saying Dame's points have plummeted from 1962 to 169, even though his scoring average is up from 26.9 ppg to 33.8 ppg.

If you're going to compare a 5 game sample size to an 82 game sample size, at least use WS/48, and even that is subject to the usual small sample size caveats. In Dame's case his WS/48 is up from .227 to .334, a substantial INCREASE. But again, that's a 5 game sample size. Time will tell if he's able to maintain this level of production over an entire season. He's had hot streaks like this in the past, just not this early in the season.

BTW, if Dame was able to maintain this level of production and play all 82 games, he'd finish the season with 19.7 WS. Last year's MVP had 15.4 WS. Westbrook had 13.1 WS in his MVP season. 19.7 would be the highest since LeBron had 20.25 in 2008-09 and the second highest in the last 23 seasons (Michael Jordan - 20.43 in 1995-96).

BNM
 
Last edited:
Rastapopoulos said:
I'd give Jake's minutes to Curry, even if Harkless isn't available, except against maybe the odd Carmelo Anthony.
Click to expand...

Is there any other kind? The man prefers to play basketball in a hoodie for Pete's sake.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
WS is a cumulative stat. So, you're comparing 5 game's worth of WS to 82 game's worth. That's like saying Dame's points have plummeted from 1962 to 169, even though his scoring average is up from 26.9 ppg to 33.8 ppg.

If you're going to compare a 5 game sample size to an 82 game sample size, at least use WS/48, and even that is subject to the usual small sample size caveats. In Dame's case his WS/48 is up from .227 to .334, a substantial INCREASE. But again, that's a 5 game sample size. Time will tell if he's able to maintain this level of production over an entire season. He's had hot streaks like this in the past, just not this early in the season.

BNM
Click to expand...

Obviously it's a small sample size...and just a comparison of last year to this year so far. But that was obvious. It's just what was and what is.
 
Rastapopoulos said:
I'd give Jake's minutes to Curry, even if Harkless isn't available, except against maybe the odd Carmelo Anthony.
Click to expand...
no me...I think Jake is a much better defender at the three position and he should be.
 
I don't know why there are so many people dead set against giving him time. It makes no sense. He's show decent production in the five games with a cap of of 7-10 minutes on any start. He doesn't do any one thing exceptionally, but overall I would say the biggest weakness he has might be on his 1 on 1 defense. He isn't the quickest guy in the world. But his shot is WORLDS better than it was a few years ago. I'd put his development about where Pat Connaughton was when he started featuring for us. And certainly, there is nothing wrong with that. We need as many shooters around Turner as possible, when Moe comes back move him to the starting lineup and feature Layman in the second lineup. He's earned it.
 
TBpup said:
Obviously it's a small sample size...and just a comparison of last year to this year so far. But that was obvious. It's just what was and what is.
Click to expand...

No, it's not just a small sample size. You are misusing the stat. To say Dame's WS have plummeted from 12.6 to 1.2 is not a valid comparison.

For the comparison to be valid, you'd need to compare last's year's WS through 5 games to this year's WS through 5 games. I don't know where to get that data, but I can guarantee you with Dame's scoring and PER both at career highs, by far, his WS through 5 games this year is higher than it was at the same point last season. It has not "plummeted".

Put it another way: saying Dame has plummeted from from WS = 12.6 to WS = 1.2 is analogous to saying the Blazers have plummeted from 49 wins to 3 wins.

BNM
 
Last edited:
If you want Win Shares as a non-cumanalitive stat, use WS/48.
 
BonesJones said:
If you want Win Shares as a non-cumanalitive stat, use WS/48.
Click to expand...

Go ahead. I just pointed out a simple comparison. Didn't say it was the end all. If some people want to argue it, pick it apart or do more work...feel free. Don't have that much time. Have at it.
 
There was an actual Jake sighting in actual non-garbage time last night against the Thunder and as has been the case for the large majority of this season with him, when he gets decent run and a few shots, he produces well.

When Jake plays as many minutes or more as he did last night, he is shooting .545 from the field. Take out his one outlier brick-fest on Dec 8 and that goes up to .582 from the field. In the same minutes, he is shooting .375 from 3-pt range and again, remove the outlier game and that jumps to .423 from '3'.

One of the biggest issues with this team is having an athletic wing who can move without the ball and make a '3'. Layman is quite good this year at both of those when given minutes. Even the minutes he has received have been sporadic at times and it's tough to get a rhythm in such herky-jerky rotations.

What is Stotts deal with him?
 
TBpup said:
There was an actual Jake sighting in actual non-garbage time last night against the Thunder and as has been the case for the large majority of this season with him, when he gets decent run and a few shots, he produces well.

When Jake plays as many minutes or more as he did last night, he is shooting .545 from the field. Take out his one outlier brick-fest on Dec 8 and that goes up to .582 from the field. In the same minutes, he is shooting .375 from 3-pt range and again, remove the outlier game and that jumps to .423 from '3'.

One of the biggest issues with this team is having an athletic wing who can move without the ball and make a '3'. Layman is quite good this year at both of those when given minutes. Even the minutes he has received have been sporadic at times and it's tough to get a rhythm in such herky-jerky rotations.

What is Stotts deal with him?
Click to expand...

Hes getting Vonleh’d. Remember when Aminu was injured last year and Vonleh stepped up in his absence? Then Aminu came back and not only did Vonleh not keep his spot, he got kicked out of the rotation all together.

There is no logical answer to your question.

My guess is he’ll be in the rotation again tonight, and then get pulled as soon as he misses two shots.
 
Scalma said:
Hes getting Vonleh’d. Remember when Aminu was injured last year and Vonleh stepped up in his absence? Then Aminu came back and not only did Vonleh not keep his spot, he got kicked out of the rotation all together.

There is no logical answer to your question.

My guess is he’ll be in the rotation again tonight, and then get pulled as soon as he misses two shots.
Click to expand...
Maybe that is actually another part of his system.

Pick a guy to mess with
 
I like Jake...he's not the defender Mo is at all though
 
riverman said:
I like Jake...he's not the defender Mo is at all though
Click to expand...

I don't think anyone is suggesting that. But when he can (and has) shoot like he does, that he gets so many DNP's is very sketchy to me.
 
riverman said:
I like Jake...he's not the defender Mo is at all though
Click to expand...

I don’t think anyone’s suggesting he replaces Harkless in the lineup anymore. The issue is that he doesn’t play at all.
 
After the recent run Mr. Turtle has been on, I started digging into his game stats a little more. This may be of interest.

If Jake gets 5 or more FGA in a game, here are the following results:

FG% - .548
3-pt% - .333 (that goes up to .375 minus his one outlier 0-6 bricklaying night on Dec 8)
FT% - .722
Points - 11.23
Rebs - 3.27
MPG - 20:30

Not that I'm a big per/36 fan but that equates out to just a hair under 20 ppg/36 at a very efficient shooting rate.

It's like Jake has had to force his minutes and even when he got 20 points the other night, only played 18 minutes. Yet other teammates can have abysmal shooting nights quite often and still get plenty of minutes with no substitution in sight. What is it Stotts seemingly doesn't like about Jake?

By contrast, it will only take one guess to figure out who this is:

2-14
5-25
2-8
4-14
4-15
5-16
7-22
5-15
7-20
6-17
6-17
6-17
5-14
7-19
7-19
8-21

In not one of those games did 'this Blazer' play less than 28 minutes. And it's not like they were filling the stat sheet anywhere else or playing stellar defense. And it's not like there isn't a sub on the bench at the same position shooting near 50% from '3'.

Head scratching....
 
at the risk of getting hammered, my take is that the temperature of 'Layman fever' is a way too high

it's understandable though. There's little enough about the Blazers that actually transcend the rinse-repeat inertia that seems to have set in over the last 4 seasons. That's a big reason why Nurkic fever was a big thing a couple of years ago.

I'm remembering the Webster-fever from about a decade or so ago. He was having microwave quarters and people were going nuts about it. He was getting compared to Dale Ellis and Glen Rice and Michael Finley and just about other every good-shooting wing that had all-star seasons. It was all a bunch of cart-before-the-horse momentum that slowly died as the reality of Webster's limited game was exposed.

I'm not saying Layman is on that track. His sample size is so small the track is barely built, but he has shown flashes. The flashes are enough that he should be assured of consistent minutes. But he hasn't shown nearly enough to be penciled in as the SFOTF. That's just not realistic at this point, unless you are willing to settle for average or below if the fever is higher than the reality
 
wizenheimer said:
at the risk of getting hammered, my take is that the temperature of 'Layman fever' is a way too high

it's understandable though. There's little enough about the Blazers that actually transcend the rinse-repeat inertia that seems to have set in over the last 4 seasons. That's a big reason why Nurkic fever was a big thing a couple of years ago.

I'm remembering the Webster-fever from about a decade or so ago. He was having microwave quarters and people were going nuts about it. He was getting compared to Dale Ellis and Glen Rice and Michael Finley and just about other every good-shooting wing that had all-star seasons. It was all a bunch of cart-before-the-horse momentum that slowly died as the reality of Webster's limited game was exposed.

I'm not saying Layman is on that track. His sample size is so small the track is barely built, but he has shown flashes. The flashes are enough that he should be assured of consistent minutes. But he hasn't shown nearly enough to be penciled in as the SFOTF. That's just not realistic at this point, unless you are willing to settle for average or below if the fever is higher than the reality
Click to expand...
I'm with you. Excited for him he's played well. Think he can probably be a decent SF in the league. Need a much bigger sample size though. Which means one thing, I think he's earned playing time and should get it. Hopefully, he proves he can keep doing this.
 
Credit to Terry Stotts and co for developing young 2nd round talent
Gone are the days where Nolan Smith and Armon Johnson iso'd or exclusively ran P&R.
Arrival of the days where the offense which is ran helps put young players in a position to succeed both on, and off the ball.

Crabbe, Baseball player, Napier, Layman, Nurk, Nards, Collins.

Nate would've never actually ran plays for Layman like Portland did in the second half against the Pelicans.
It would've been clear out or P&R.
Layman might've missed the shots but plays were still ran for him.

Uhoh a post giving the coaches credit and not trying to armchair coach.
This'll go well.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Draco
NBA sons; Gerald Henderson & Ed Davis dads played in the NBA
Replies
1
Views
536
HailBlazers
HailBlazers
Binx
Is Simons really just Jake Layman?
2 3 4
Replies
109
Views
10K
Orion Bailey
Orion Bailey
Fez Hammersticks
Make the case for Triston Thompson
Replies
0
Views
299
Fez Hammersticks
Fez Hammersticks
Scalma
Moe vs Jake
2 3
Replies
75
Views
4K
PtldPlatypus
PtldPlatypus
Five Second Violation
Jake Layman
2 3 4
Replies
115
Views
9K
hoopsjock
hoopsjock

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top